Scouting the FA starting pitchers

nsacpi said:
Lackey on a similar deal to what we gave Dickey last season (1 year plus an option year at 8M per year) would not be bad. His results this year have been skewed by a high HR/FB rate, something that has a significant element of luck. Like BABIP it tends to regress toward the mean.

His strikeout (8.0) and walk (2.8) rates this year have been solid.

My first choice this off-season is one of Lynn/Cobb/Garcia at 15M/year on no more than a 4 year deal. If the market for those 3 gets too expensive someone like Lackey is a good fallback option.
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If the Braves give Garcia or Cobb $60M the whole FO deserves to be fired immediately.

Lackey is the example I used years ago of someone the Braves could bring in as a 1 year fill in during this awkward time in the rebuild. He could still be a decent replacement for Dickey.
 
Southcack77 said:
I could handle Chatwood on a friendly deal. He certainly is pretty decent away from Coors.

though, while the splits are dramatic, the peripherals are actually pretty consistent and the road FIP is not that impressive. The BABIP on the road is pretty darn low. Also, I'm trying to think if anyone has really broken out after leaving Coors. Maybe there is a obvious example that is slipping my mind.
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The beauty of xwOBA is it effectively strips out park factors and defensive play.

Chatwood's 0.317 mark in 2016 and 0.325 mark this year shows he is almost exactly average. His fWAR values back that up. He is also very young for a FA pitcher (28 next year).

I could also get on board with bringing him in on a good value deal. Certainly not something like $60M though.
 
What do we think Garcia's asking price will be? Kinda liked his good work this year. Can we get him for two years?
 
I have no interest in I-Me. I would literally rather watch Wisler get shelled every start than pay I-Me for 2 to 3 years at 10+ million
 
Folks are being completely unrealistic when they talk about the values of these contracts.

Garcia is looking at Estrada money (2/26) as his floor and Happ money (3/36) as about the upper limit.

Cobb will easily beat that. Something along the lines of Kazmir money (3/48) makes sense.

Lynn will easily beat both. Something between Santana money (4/55) and Shields money (4/75) makes sense.

Even someone like Sabathia will command Colon money ($12M+) on a 1 year deal.

It is completely naive to think the Braves are going to get a league average FA SP for a few million bucks. The Braves are past the point of needing to pay market rates for league average SPs...they literally have half a dozen of them ready to go.
 
Enscheff said:
Folks are being completely unrealistic when they talk about the values of these contracts.

Garcia is looking at Estrada money (2/26) as his floor and Happ money (3/36) as about the upper limit.

Cobb will easily beat that. Something along the lines of Kazmir money (3/48) makes sense.

Lynn will easily beat both. Something between Santana money (4/55) and Shields money (4/75) makes sense.

Even someone like Sabathia will command Colon money ($12M+) on a 1 year deal.

It is completely naive to think the Braves are going to get a league average FA SP for a few million bucks. The Braves are past the point of needing to pay market rates for league average SPs...they literally have half a dozen of them ready to go.
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I was thinking Cobb at 3 years $45M with a $20M club option.
Chatwood at 3 years $40M with a $18M club option.

I also would look to sign Eovaldi 1 year $5M w club option at $15M (that kind of gamble is how you find a bargain IMO)
-AND-
Shelby Miller (if he is non tendered) 1 yr $5M w club option of $15M.

I would let Dickey go since I don't think he will make it through another year at his age (playing with fire and no real upside IF you don't crap out).

I also would trade Teheran this offseason (I'm thinking Milwaukee would be a good landing place) and Folty (I'm thinking Baltimore would be a likely place).

Obviously, it was my hope that the Braves would go the other way and do a true rebuild. They didn't do that. SO, now, my fandom turns my attention to building a good team short term without compromising the long term.
 
Replacing Folty and Teheran with more expensive and older pitchers with more of

an injury history who aren't likely to produce any better seems like a pretty terrible idea.
 
Enscheff said:
Replacing Folty and Teheran with more expensive and older pitchers with more of
an injury history who aren't likely to produce any better seems like a pretty terrible idea.
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Not if you get something for them that is useful. For instance, let's say the Braves traded Signed Cobb then traded Teheran to the Brewers for something like: Phillips and Lutz or if not Lutz then a package of Phillips, Clark and Monte Harrison. There is no certainty that Teheran will be any better than Cobb. If Cobb = Teheran, then the move netted 2-3 OF who all profile as at least 4th OF guys and maybe (likely 1 of them anyway) better.

Then let's say the Braves paired Jim Johnson with Folty and traded them to Baltimore for Austin Hays and Hunter Harvey (Harvey might not be possible depending on how much they believe in his health so if not, then Michael Baumann). They then sign Chatwood. Chatwood will cost more early that Folty but Folty's costs will rise as he moves through arby. If Chatwood just equals Folty (and I would say there is a very good chance he will exceed him) then you've effectively spent the money difference to buy two prospects.
 
auyushu said:
Exactly. Creating a logjam for no particular reason makes zero sense to me.
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You let the kids pitch if 2018 isn't the target and no one's job is in jeopardy. It looks like winning is important for 2018. I think the FO has decided that neither Folty nor Teheran are TOR guys, not even reliable #2 and asking the young, ready kids to be that is asking too much too early. Essentially, the team right now is full of #4 starters. They want to improve that. I'm not sure they can but think they will try mainly because of the heat.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
You let the kids pitch if 2018 isn't the target and no one's job is in jeopardy. It looks like winning is important for 2018. I think the FO has decided that neither Folty nor Teheran are TOR guys, not even reliable #2 and asking the young, ready kids to be that is asking too much too early. Essentially, the team right now is full of #4 starters. They want to improve that. I'm not sure they can but think they will try mainly because of the heat.
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Teheran was a #2 way back in 2016.
 
Super said:
Teheran was a #2 way back in 2016.
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Dickey won the Cy Young in 2012. Folty looked like an ACE one game, on a Thursday, two months ago.

Results aren't talent. I think Braves fans and Braves management have a MUCH higher opinion of Teheran than the rest of baseball.

He pitched like a #4 this year and is probably a #3 most years. Could he get better than that? Of course. But his FB decline doesn't bode well for it.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Dickey won the Cy Young in 2012. Folty looked like an ACE one game, on a Thursday, two months ago.

Results aren't talent. I think Braves fans and Braves management have a MUCH higher opinion of Teheran than the rest of baseball.

He pitched like a #4 this year and is probably a #3 most years. Could he get better than that? Of course. But his FB decline doesn't bode well for it.
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That's exactly why I wouldn't trade him - "I think Braves fans and Braves management have a MUCH higher opinion of Teheran than the rest of baseball."

To me, it looks like you'll get a value of a fourth or fifth starter based on the rest of baseball's opinion.

Would have just bolded but am on mobile.
 
Managuarantano's Volunteers said:
That's exactly why I wouldn't trade him - "I think Braves fans and Braves management have a MUCH higher opinion of Teheran than the rest of baseball."

To me, it looks like you'll get a value of a fourth or fifth starter based on the rest of baseball's opinion.

Would have just bolded but am on mobile.
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The Braves have plenty of young cheap starters who will be up now, next year and for several years who will start as #4 starters. Some will be better than that after time others won't. The point is the rotation doesn't need a guy like Teheran now or moving forward since they rebuilt around pitching. It needs a starter better than him. Since it is unlikely that the Braves will sign a guy like Arrieta or Darvish, who are both currently clear upgrades over Teheran, then it leaves guys like Lynn, Cobb, etc. who are marginally better than Teheran. If you sign one or more of those guys then it pushes Teheran down to an area in the rotation where he is an unnecessary expense.

The question then becomes "why sign a FA pitcher at all?" That's a fair question. The answer is that the young pitching hasn't developed as well or as fast as was hoped and the FO is feeling heat to do something, anything. There will be new pitching. The question then becomes do they begin to empty the minors trying to trade for this years Quintana? That's what most are afraid will happen.

What I outlined above would be a change in the rotation (sign Cobb, Chatwood, maybe Eovaldi and/or Miller) that would satisfy the do something outcry, all without spending one young talent chip. Trading Teheran and/or Folty then actually brings more back to the stable. Of course you don't get to "win" those trades because those guys aren't good enough to command a market that allows for a clear Dave Stewart like win. But they aren't likely to ever be in Atlanta unless you believe Folty will Butterfly at some near time.

I don't dislike either Teheran or Folty. I do look at them and say that they are current and future #4 which is potentially valuable but not to a team who has "rebuilt" on young pitching, pitching that will arrive as #4 and stay that way or quickly get better to be replaced by other young internal #4.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Dickey won the Cy Young in 2012. Folty looked like an ACE one game, on a Thursday, two months ago.

Results aren't talent. I think Braves fans and Braves management have a MUCH higher opinion of Teheran than the rest of baseball.

He pitched like a #4 this year and is probably a #3 most years. Could he get better than that? Of course. But his FB decline doesn't bode well for it.
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your first paragraph is a terrible point.

Julio is 26(!!) and has had two seasons over 4 WAR and three over 3. He had a down year in '15 before his excellent season last year. Will have pitched 185+ innings every year for the last 5 years. I'm not ready to write him off or declare a decline based on this season. he was a good #2 last year.
 
Super said:
your first paragraph is a terrible point.

Julio is 26(!!) and has had two seasons over 4 WAR and three over 3. He had a down year in '15 before his excellent season last year. Will have pitched 185+ innings every year for the last 5 years. I'm not ready to write him off or declare a decline based on this season. he was a good #2 last year.
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Julio is 26 and his stuff is in steady decline. Veteran pitchers can compensate for that but usually it happens after their prime. I understand that being a fan means loving your guys. And you may be right. I just don't think you are. I think Julio will continue a bit of an up and down career with the net effect being a steady decline down. He still has value because their will be someone who can convince themselves that he is the pitcher that you think he is, so IMO now's the time to move him, not when he can't be moved.
 
We aren't gonna sign a starter but I think we'll go after Fulmer. He will cost a lot but I don't see Acuna going anywhere in a trade so I would center a deal around Allard and maybe Anderson.
 
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