Not what AA will do, but what he should do...

[Horsehide Harry]

***Warning - if you aren't interested in speculation, projection or fanciful contemplation then you may want to move on and not waste your time.

With the moves below, I will try to remain consistent with the type value achieved by others who shopped players of similar value. Many won't agree, that's fine. But don't just take the cowards way out, tell me what you think a return would be if you don't like mine...

1. Trade Teheran to Milwaukee for Brett Phillips and Tristan Lutz - they need pitching and Teheran is controlled through 2020. They have the payroll room to make the move and neither Phillips nor Lutz are critical to upcoming seasons.

2. Trade Folty & Johnson plus $4M for OF Austin Hays and RHP Hunter Harvey - they also need pitching and want hard throwing controllable guys.

3. Inciarte to the Cubs for Schwarber and Tommy Lastella. The Cubs in a LO hitter and are likely to move Schwarber (Cubs also a possibility for Teheran and/or Folty) but not under this scenario.

4. Freeman to Houston for Tucker, Colin Moran, Gilberto Celestino and Jonathan Arauz. I think Freeman's value is close to Sale's. Freeman is more expensive but controlled longer and less prone to catastrophic injury. Even saying that, the return I have is significantly less than what the WS got from Boston. Other possible landing spots for Freeman could be NY, Boston or maybe LAD (assuming the Braves take back Gonzalez and the Dodgers play Bellinger in the OF - Dodgers would have to make it worth the Braves while).

5. Kemp to Toronto for Troy Tulowitzki, Max Pentecost and Richard Urena. Kemp/Tulo cancel each other through 2019, Braves get a couple of prospects for the rest of Tulo's contract. Toronto needs a replacement for Bautista and need to move Tulo. Braves play Tulo at short to start the season and send Swanson down to work on sliders. When Swanson is ready, move Tulo over to 3rd (or 1st, or Util).

6. With the newfound payroll flexibility trade Allard and Sanchez to Miami for Ozuna and Tazawa.

7. Trade Ozuna and Viz to St. Louis for Carson Kelly and Alex Reyes (or Jack Flaherty). Reyes is coming off TJ so, I think STL would rather [part with him than Flaherty.

8. Sign RHP Chatwood for 3 years $20M; Mike Minor 4 years $30M (and give him a chance to start if he wants it); Jamie Garcia 2 years $16M.

Would leave you with (in 2018):

1B - Mike Adams/Schwarber (trade Scharber mid season) - Moran, Riley or FA in 2019
2B - Albies (Lastella)
SS - Tulowitzki (Swanson) - Urena, Arauz future
3B - Camargo/Ruiz - Tulo moves over when Swanson available or Riley, FA in 2019 possible
C - Flowes/Suzuki - Kelly and Pentecost in future
LF - Hays - with Acuna possible LF/RF after time in minors, Lutz future
CF - Phillips - Pache, Celestino future
RF - Markakis - Acuna/Tucker 2019, Lutz possible future

SP: Chatwood, Garcia, Minor (if he wants it), Newcomb, Gohara, Fried, Reyes (all kinds of young talent)
RP: Ramirez, Minter, Winkler, Tazawa, Freeman, Jackson, Morris, etc. etc. (address pen as needed between 2018/2019.

They lose 90 games again in 2018 but have little pressure for the young guys to come up second half of 2018 and get experience, then have lots of money for offseason 2018/2019 and begin to open the competitive window in 2019, still with a tremendous amount of talent in waves throughout the minor league system AND it gets you past the worst of the International penalties. Also, pick 8th in 2018, top 5 in 2019, probably top 15 in 2020.

Opening day 2019:

2B Albies
SS Swanson
LF Acuna
RF Tucker
3B Tulowitzki
1B Moran (if Schwarber still around then he's 4th)
CF Phillips
C Kelly

SP: one of Reyes, Wright, Soroka, Chatwood (if not traded), Minor (if not traded), Gohara, Newcomb, Fried etc.

Pen: Minter, Winkler, Ramirez, Jackson, Morris, etc.

And you would have all kinds of cash to add FA to fill holes such as possibly closer, 3B, 1B, SP etc.

 

[Russ2dollas]

I would do nine of that.

I think we need more data. We are ok to get another deep draft pool to restock the farm. We need to know what prospects to keep and 1 more year is crucial.

1. Is look to move kemp if anyone would pay 5 million or more of his deal
2. Keep neck as a potential deadline bat and a vet presence. He can come off the bench if needed.
3. Keep acuna down for 3-4 months
4. Look to move Tehran and Matt Adams if you get useable pieces.
5. Trade flowers and get Pentecost in rule 5 to replace him
6. Keep inciarte and ff unless blown away
7. 6 man starting rotation to keep innings down or use the dodgers 10 day dL . Gohara newk folty Sims fried need to pitch a lot.
8. Do not rush weigel or minter
9. Load up on pen guys for deadlines flips
10. Next year is the year. Better free agents. More info on key young guys.

 

[Carp]

Not even close to what he should do.

 

[rico43]

You have invested so heavily in other teams prospect, the first question I need to ask is if you flpped the telescope and looked at each of those deals from the other teams' perspective. But I'll give you points for thoughtful speculation (which at times seems to be against the rules here).

 

[nsacpi]

a couple things that are gimmes

1) send Acuna down to AAA for a few weeks

2) see if Flowers can be extented on club friendly terms

 

[Skeeter31]

I think the most important thing to do will be to make sure we take BPA in the first round of the draft, and hope that it’s not a pitcher. By not having the international market available to get our hitting prospects from, we need to change our draft strategy of late and got after more hitters in the early rounds.

 

[nsacpi]

I think the most important thing to do will be to make sure we take BPA in the first round of the draft, and hope that it’s not a pitcher. By not having the international market available to get our hitting prospects from, we need to change our draft strategy of late and got after more hitters in the early rounds.

I suspect bpa in round 1 will be a pitcher...early indications are that this is a strong draft with pitching being especially strong

 

[thethe]

I don't get why we would trade Freeman. He could be a potential elite offensive player for the next 10 years. I think that should align somewhat with our rebuild.

 

[Enscheff]

I don't get why we would trade Freeman. He could be a potential elite offensive player for the next 10 years. I think that should align somewhat with our rebuild.

Elite for the next 10 years? Really?

Have the Braves been bad for so long we have forgotten what an elite player is?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

You have invested so heavily in other teams prospect, the first question I need to ask is if you flpped the telescope and looked at each of those deals from the other teams' perspective. But I'll give you points for thoughtful speculation (which at times seems to be against the rules here).

Yeah, I did try to "flip the telescope" as you put it, which is a good analogy. It's difficult because I am making a limited informed guess at the needs and wants of other teams. In some cases, that guess is informed by information that is out there but in some it's just a projection on my part based on what appears to be a team need. I also looked at the payroll of the other team and tried to accommodate for that in any potential deals as well. I also tried to gauge value based on other similar historic trades. For instance, Freeman's value has to be considered in the neighborhood of Sales value so the deal I have for him is in that neighborhood, devalued a bit for the fact that Freeman is an elite bat instead of a elite arm.

Could I be wrong? Of course. Milwaukee and Baltimore both need pitching but maybe they are willing to play in the FA market instead of trading. Houston certainly needs an elite arm more than they need a 1B but they could go for both (they have the payroll space I think) or they may view the market as lacking in difference making arms. But, even given that, there still should be a strong market for Freeman among the group of: Boston, NYY, LAD, STL maybe SEA. And, if you are AA, you don't HAVE to move Freddie now even if you decide that moving him is the long term right thing to do.

The thing is, I might believe differently IF there was more payroll flexibility for a short term run of competition and MLB hadn't dropped a Bomb on the organization the other day. However, as it is I don't see enough cash to fill holes, which means AA would have to expend prospect capital to address holes (cutting into the waves of future longevity) and future waves for longevity are now severely affected by the loss of prospects and the forced non-participation in the international market.

Think about it: 2018 team is a little better but still loses 85 games. That's an incremental improvement of 5 games. But still not good enough to really compete. But, it puts the Braves up close to middle of the pack in baseball as far as record and draft position. So, 2019 draft they pick 10-15 range (with associated reverberation throughout the draft) AND you have no ability to really play in the international market. And attendance isn't markedly improved over 2017 so payroll doesn't go up for 2019.

Then the 2019 team improves by 5 games and the team loses 80 games (almost all internal incremental improvement, but AA makes a small trade from the minor leagues talent to acquire some external player through trade). Team is above .500 but attendance isn't much better and team still isn't in the playoffs. Kemp is now gone but Folty is deep in arbitration, Teheran's option is picked up and a year away from FA, Swanson, Albies are in arby. Payroll gets a little bump and using what's left of Kemp's salary, AA brings in a 4 WAR player to fill a hole from external.

Then the 2020 team the Team wins 90 games, goes to the playoffs, gets bounced early. Pache is ready and Inciarte's metrics have devalued to the point that he's league average overall as a CF. AA trades Inciarte and gets a couple of low A prospects of dubious value. Teheran ends Braves career, Freeman is declining and over 30. Young pitching is improved but is beginning to get expensive through arby as is Swanson, Albies and Acuna. Braves minor league system now ranked below average because of promotions and trades. Replacement players through draft are just "ok" because draft position has limited opportunity and no ability to supplement through the International market.

2021 Team wins 95 wins and has a chance but players are getting VERY expensive and Freeman is a shell of former self with little trade value but is taking up about 20% of team payroll. AA decides he can't rebuild but has serious flexibility problems due to payroll. Braves draw 2.8M fans but minor leagues are now VERY weak.

2022 record drops off to .500. Freeman gone, Teheran gone, Folty gone, Swanson, Albies, Gohara one year away from FA. Acuna two years away. None have been extended because there has been no payroll flexibility because o the need to use what little there was in effort to compete.

2023 rebuild again.

 

[nsacpi]

With Hosmer, Santana and a few others on the market, first base is unlikely to be a seller's market this offseason...white Sox will probably make Abreu available too. It'll be tough extracting good value in return for Adams let alone Freeman.

 

[Enscheff]

With Hosmer, Santana and a few others on the market, first base is unlikely to be a seller's market this offseason...white Sox will probably make Abreu available too. It'll be tough extracting good value in return for Adams let alone Freeman.

MAdams might not be able to be traded at all. He might have to be non-tendered if the Braves want to save that cash.

 

[TheBravos]

Elite for the next 10 years? Really?

Have the Braves been bad for so long we have forgotten what an elite player is?

I love FF, but with the sanctions...I now question if we should trade him while his value is high. All the sudden, Matt Adams turns into a nice value at first. He would put up decent numbers. At this point, we probably need to trade our high end players over 25 and try to line up prospects with our younger player’s window and build depth back.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I love FF, but with the sanctions...I now question if we should trade him while his value is high. All the sudden, Matt Adams turns into a nice value at first. He would put up decent numbers. At this point, we probably need to trade our high end players over 25 and try to line up prospects with our younger player’s window and build depth back.

All I'm sayin'

 

[IslandBrave]

I love FF, but with the sanctions...I now question if we should trade him while his value is high. All the sudden, Matt Adams turns into a nice value at first. He would put up decent numbers. At this point, we probably need to trade our high end players over 25 and try to line up prospects with our younger player’s window and build depth back.

Do you want people to come watch the games? Trading your best and most recognizable player isn't going to accomplish that.

 

[Skeeter31]

I love FF, but with the sanctions...I now question if we should trade him while his value is high. All the sudden, Matt Adams turns into a nice value at first. He would put up decent numbers. At this point, we probably need to trade our high end players over 25 and try to line up prospects with our younger player’s window and build depth back.

I’m more of the mindset that we’re going to be screwed in the future anyway, so we might as well go for it now. We’re at the beginning of the window to compete right now, keep what we have, try to get a bit stronger, and hope for some playoff push in the next 2-4 years. Basically because of the sanctions we are now playing to be the Royals. Have a few competitive seasons and then fade to mediocrity or worse. But to try to kick the van down the road isn’t the best option since we won’t have the prospect pipeline we have right now.

 

[TheBravos]

Do you want people to come watch the games? Trading your best and most recognizable player isn't going to accomplish that.

I’m saying Freddie, Julio and maybe Ender. I’m not saying have get rid of everyone. If I am AA and I get a unreal package that brings back a Star in the same window as Acuna (say a vlad jr)...I have to consider it. At the very least Julio and a few other pitchers need to go at the deadline this year. We now not only have to cover the 13 players we lost, but the 30 or so player we won’t get in the future. I’m not sure how we navigate thru loosing so many players. Imagine our team without Acuna, Oz, Camargo etc. we won’t be getting any of these guys for a four-five year period. Then...we have to wait another 3-4 years once we are able to sign them again until we actually see any of them. This is absolutely devastating...I’m not sure if everyone on this board really gets how bad it is. They have basically killed our chances from 2020-2025. We have a small window now, and we don’t have the payroll to compete past that. It’s really, really, really bad. It’s really heartbreaking for fans...the sad part is...many don’t have a clues how bad this is.

 

[jpx7]

I suspect bpa in round 1 will be a pitcher...early indications are that this is a strong draft with pitching being especially strong

I definitely support the BPA approach; but taking a BPA pitcher in the first-round would be easier to swallow if the Braves could still make significant investments in the international market.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

I’m saying Freddie, Julio and maybe Ender. I’m not saying have get rid of everyone. If I am AA and I get a unreal package that brings back a Star in the same window as Acuna (say a vlad jr)...I have to consider it. At the very least Julio and a few other pitchers need to go at the deadline this year. We now not only have to cover the 13 players we lost, but the 30 or so player we won’t get in the future. I’m not sure how we navigate thru loosing so many players. Imagine our team without Acuna, Oz, Camargo etc. we won’t be getting any of these guys for a four-five year period. Then...we have to wait another 3-4 years once we are able to sign them again until we actually see any of them. This is absolutely devastating...I’m not sure if everyone on this board really gets how bad it is. They have basically killed our chances from 2020-2025. We have a small window now, and we don’t have the payroll to compete past that. It’s really, really, really bad. It’s really heartbreaking for fans...the sad part is...many don’t have a clues how bad this is.

I get it.

The way to mitigate the impact is to have high draft picks (2-3 top 5's, 1-3 top 10's) and make them count. Also, you want as young a team as you can have (from a service time aspect) as you enter your early window of contention. Any veterans that you have in your early window of contention should come as FA signings just as you enter contention. That's how you navigate the penalties and keep from becoming the Pirates, Royals (you can argue that the WS made their approach worth it but they are headed to another 5-10 years of mediocrity now), Reds, Rays, etc.

As for the attendance argument, the stadium was BRAND new this year which brought a certain amount of novelty appeal. They HAD FF, A really good Inciarte, etc. and STILL didn't draw much more than 2.5M. Even if they achieve an incremental improvement of 5 wins (which is a lot considering how little money it appears the Braves will have this offseason), no one can really believe that that will be attractive enough to lead to significant increased attendance, especially considering that some won't be back for any reason since the novelty of the park is over.

In Atlanta, fans come when the Team is good. Not just good, but VERY good. Fans don't come when the team isn't good.

If the Battery is as important as has been assumed, then the Team could discount tickets to a certain extent to draw fans and still make money from concessions, parking and the Battery. Obviously that isn't a long term solution.

And, finally, AA and other Braves FO management need to put on an aggressive marketing campaign along the lines of : "In 1989-1990 the Braves were slowly coming out of an extended rebuild period. They were breaking in players like Glavine, Smoltz, Gant and Justice, all players who would play a big role in the upcoming Braves dynasty. Come see the next great Braves players..."

 

[nsacpi]

I definitely support the BPA approach; but taking a BPA pitcher in the first-round would be easier to swallow if the Braves could still make significant investments in the international market.

there are indications that the braves have overdrafted pitchers in rounds after the first round...it would make even more sense now to correct this tendency