2018 Offseason And Targets

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Wonder if the White Sox would trade Omar Narvaez. Put up 2 WAR in about 90 games at catcher last year. Seems to have good on base skills.
 
clvclv said:
"Assuming" is a terribly BIG word.

As for Sale, go back to the time of the trade and find someone who didn't call it an overpay.
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Like I said, the risk is baked into the projections. They all have a percentage of likelihood that he'll either fail to some extent or succeed to an extent beyond the projected 16 number. The 16 WAR number is just the average outcome for prospects of a certain stature. The risk of deviating from that number is baked in inherently. You're not correct when you say that these valuations are based only on the absolute best case scenario. That would be a pretty stupid way to evaluate prospect value. If that were the way it was done, Acuna's projected WAR baseline would have been more like 30 WAR or something nuts like that.

Sometimes I think you deliberately read around the stuff you don't like, pick out one word that is perhaps sloppily written, and use that to somehow prove a conclusion that you've already arrived at.

As for the Sale deal, there may have been circumstances that lead to people calling that trade an overpay. I don't know what they were. But as far as the valuation numbers are concerned, it fit squarely into what should have been expected. Moncada: ~80 million plus Kopech: ~40 million plus Basabe: ~15 million plus Diaz: ~5 million. That is right at the 140 million dollar mark, which was perfectly fair value for Sale.
 
Oklahomabrave said:
Wonder if the White Sox would trade Omar Narvaez. Put up 2 WAR in about 90 games at catcher last year. Seems to have good on base skills.
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Interesting until I looked up his framing. He was the fifth worst framer in baseball according to Prospectus. Solid hitting catcher, but absolute no on the framing. Although it would be funny to see the board flip out if we got a catcher who actually frames worse than Suzuki.
 
BeanieAntics said:
This simply isn't true. The prospect valuation charts and trade value equations bake in the risk associated with prospects. When Acuna was the top prospect in baseball, he was worth ~80 dollars in surplus value. That is assuming an average WAR outcome of ~16 over his first 6 seasons along with the likelihood of him producing less than that or more than that. Now that we have more information on Acuna, his trade value is much higher than it was when he was a prospect so there is more certainty.

And they hit the Chris Sale trade pretty close to the mark. The Red Sox really didn't overpay. They paid about ~140 million in surplus value for 3 years of a 6 win pitcher on a 39 million dollar contract... that is about right.
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Every year some prospects rise in value and some fall. I offer five quatloos to the sage who is able to predict which ones will be in each group.

To base a post-season strategy upon the idea that our prospects are going to do one thing or another in terms of valuation is to base it upon an unfounded proposition.
 
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nsacpi said:
which ones have nowhere to go but down in value
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everyone2.jpg



One of my favorite movies btw
 
nsacpi said:
which ones have nowhere to go but down in value
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THAT is the $64,000 Question, isn't it?

I still maintain that the only prospects I'd hold above all others would be Touki, Riley, Pache, Wright, Soroka, Anderson, Waters, and Contreras - and one of Pache/Waters and Wright and Anderson MIGHT be available in a monster deal (for Paxton and Haniger or a true TOR arm - guys like deGrom/Snell/Syndergaard - that's controllable for multiple seasons for example).

I have no idea if those are the ones AA's folks would hold in such high regard. It will be interesting to see. For me, the truly only "off-limits" guys would be the position prospects (Riley, Contreras, and one of Pache/Waters), and Touki, and Soroka (assuming he's healthy) since they're so close to being ready to step in and contribute right away. Touki and Soroka are my eventual Gausman and Julio replacements, so as long as you don't go nuts and trade 6-7 other arms (Gohara, Fried, Wright, Anderson, Weigel, Wilson, Allard, Wentz, Muller) you've hopefully protected enough depth to get through the next 4-5 years.

Gohara, Fried, and Allard's values have already taken hits and Fried and Weigel already have the first TJS mark against them, so the attrition has already begun. There's no reason not to expect it to continue, and it's probably fair to say the Braves have been quite lucky that it's not been worse so far.
 
Seems to me there is some reshuffling every year. Among our top prospects at the start of 2018, I would say the following have seen an increase in their market value: Acuna, Toussaint, Wilson, Pache, Waters, Contreras, Muller, Anderson, Fried.

And the following have seen a decrease: Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Wright, Wentz.

Riley has held steady.

It was a good year in the sense that more guys gained value than lost value.

As for what 2019 holds, we can try to guess. I would say Soroka and Gohara have a good chance to regain some of the lost value. I think Anderson and Toussaint might be a bit overvalued at this point. Those would be my guesses for the most likely risers and fallers in the upcoming year.
 
nsacpi said:
Seems to me there is some reshuffling every year. Among our top prospects at the start of 2018, I would say the following have seen an increase in their market value: Acuna, Toussaint, Wilson, Pache, Waters, Contreras, Muller, Anderson, Fried.

And the following have seen a decrease: Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Wright, Wentz.

Riley has held steady.

It was a good year in the sense that more guys gained value than lost value.

As for what 2019 holds, we can try to guess. I would say Soroka and Gohara have a good chance to regain some of the lost value. I think Anderson and Toussaint might be a bit overvalued at this point. Those would be my guesses for the most likely risers and fallers in the upcoming year.
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This was my earlier point - AA has to take his list (the one he and his best numbers/projections guys have come up with), and sit down with the Coaches/scouts/player development guys and go over that list with a fine tooth comb. Come up with their "off-limits other than special circumstances" list, and see what improvements can be made by trading those who didn't make that list. It's simply not reasonable to expect continued health for all these arms, so he needs to at least consider moving several of them - hopefully the ones farthest from making his final list.
 
Newk and Fried for Bumgarner would probably be an overpay but you'd get a comp pick if he walks so you'd be getting a top 30-40 player in the draft for him.

What happens if Newk doesnt progress much and Fried keeps having injury issues but i dont think it would cost both of them to get Bumgarner. Not even Hamels or Verlander cost that much in value when they were traded.

Bumgarner would make sense if the trade was fair. Not sure if AA tries to trade for a top pitcher with other needs out there.
 
Heyward said:
Newk and Fried for Bumgarner would probably be an overpay but you'd get a comp pick if he walks so you'd be getting a top 30-40 player in the draft for him.

What happens if Newk doesnt progress much and Fried keeps having injury issues but i dont think it would cost both of them to get Bumgarner. Not even Hamels or Verlander cost that much in value when they were traded.

Bumgarner would make sense if the trade was fair. Not sure if AA tries to trade for a top pitcher with other needs out there.
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Big assumption he would pitch well enough in 2019 to justify a qualifying offer. That's very optimistic.
 
nsacpi said:
Big assumption he would pitch well enough in 2019 to justify a qualifying offer. That's very optimistic.
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I wouldn't call it "very optimistic" but its definitely uncertain. But I would guess you have a greater than 50% of getting that comp pick.

If he's healthy and repeats his performance from the last two seasons, he's going to get 3-4 years from somebody, I think. Might not be at 18 AAV, but enough annually to where he's not going to take QO.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Like I said, the risk is baked into the projections. They all have a percentage of likelihood that he'll either fail to some extent or succeed to an extent beyond the projected 16 number. The 16 WAR number is just the average outcome for prospects of a certain stature. The risk of deviating from that number is baked in inherently. You're not correct when you say that these valuations are based only on the absolute best case scenario. That would be a pretty stupid way to evaluate prospect value. If that were the way it was done, Acuna's projected WAR baseline would have been more like 30 WAR or something nuts like that.

Sometimes I think you deliberately read around the stuff you don't like, pick out one word that is perhaps sloppily written, and use that to somehow prove a conclusion that you've already arrived at.

As for the Sale deal, there may have been circumstances that lead to people calling that trade an overpay. I don't know what they were. But as far as the valuation numbers are concerned, it fit squarely into what should have been expected. Moncada: ~80 million plus Kopech: ~40 million plus Basabe: ~15 million plus Diaz: ~5 million. That is right at the 140 million dollar mark, which was perfectly fair value for Sale.
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You're wasting your breath trying to discuss logic or math with clvderp...trust me.
 
Heyward said:
Newk and Fried for Bumgarner would probably be an overpay but you'd get a comp pick if he walks so you'd be getting a top 30-40 player in the draft for him.

What happens if Newk doesnt progress much and Fried keeps having injury issues but i dont think it would cost both of them to get Bumgarner. Not even Hamels or Verlander cost that much in value when they were traded.

Bumgarner would make sense if the trade was fair. Not sure if AA tries to trade for a top pitcher with other needs out there.
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What happens if Bumgarner blows out his elbow while warming up for his first start of spring training?

We could play those games all day and all eventually go nuts. Newk and Fried is too steep for my blood, but not sure anyone's ever going to be able to get Bumgarner for "fair value" given what he means to their franchise. Someone else can work the value charts to figure out what the actual fair value is, but my guess would be that if AA was talking to them and tossed out an Allard/Wentz offer that they'd hang up on him.

They're going to have to get a significant overpay to move him - if they keep him, they hold all the cards after this season. He'll be another year older, more brittle, his production may well take another hit, and there may not be loads of interest from other teams in bidding substantial money for him on the free-agent market. If they keep him, he's not likely going to cost them premium dollars to have him finish out his career as a Giant.

He's one of those examples of someone who cost himself huge money by taking the sure-thing and signing a below-market extension early on. It's never going to bother him because he's made more than he could ever spend, but he left a lot of money on the table.
 
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Southcack77 said:
I wouldn't call it "very optimistic" but its definitely uncertain. But I would guess you have a greater than 50% of getting that comp pick.

If he's healthy and repeats his performance from the last two seasons, he's going to get 3-4 years from somebody, I think. Might not be at 18 AAV, but enough annually to where he's not going to take QO.
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I would call it very optimistic in light of his performances the past two seasons. He's not a TOR anymore.

Anibal Sanchez 2018 FIP 3.62.

Madison Bumgarner 2018 FIP 3.99.
 
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Nationals are finalizing a deal to sign Trevor Rosenthal...should be cheap and a good get for them

So far they have brought back their closer and now added Rosenthal
 
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