2018 Offseason And Targets

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The tables show how much worse a hitter performs in a 2-1 count vs a 1-2 count, as well as every other count. That should be intuitive.

It should be obvious that a 2-3 count is much better than a 3-2 count since the batter would be struck out. The same is obvious for any 2 strike count.

Multiply all those advantages by the probability those counts occur, and there’s the value.

Seems very intuitive to me actually.
 
Southcack77 said:
If we had, we might have Yelich, which would be better than having albies.
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Debatable. At least in the long run, I'd much rather have Albies. There is a non-zero chance (though may be not likely) Albies could be a 5 WAR player this year. He was at 3.8 in his first full season after all.
 
CrimsonCowboy said:
Rivera deserves to be voted in unanimously, but he should’ve been at least the fourth. Aaron, Ripken, and Griffey should have been a unanimous vote.
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Rivera definitely deserves to be a unanimous selection, but there is NO WAY he should be the first. What a joke the HOF has become.
 
Carp said:
Debatable. At least in the long run, I'd much rather have Albies. There is a non-zero chance (though may be not likely) Albies could be a 5 WAR player this year. He was at 3.8 in his first full season after all.
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This is the problem with constantly looking at FV over actual value. How can you say you'd rather have Albies when Yelich won the MVP last year? Look at how cheaply the 2B could've been had this offseason and now we are going to be starting NICK F MARKAKIS in right.
 
CrazyTrain said:
Rivera definitely deserves to be a unanimous selection, but there is NO WAY he should be the first. What a joke the HOF has become.
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If Rivera deserves to be unanimous, a ton of players deserved it more. Not saying Rivera doesn't deserve it, just that 20 or 30 other players deserved it before him.
 
CrazyTrain said:
This is the problem with constantly looking at FV over actual value. How can you say you'd rather have Albies when Yelich won the MVP last year? Look at how cheaply the 2B could've been had this offseason and now we are going to be starting NICK F MARKAKIS in right.
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Yelich had a career year. Probably unlikely that he repeats it, but he should continue to be a 5+ WAR guy nonetheless, which is great. But Albies has that potential as well and is under control longer at cheaper rates.
 
striker42 said:
If Rivera deserves to be unanimous, a ton of players deserved it more. Not saying Rivera doesn't deserve it, just that 20 or 30 other players deserved it before him.
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It's a ****ing joke. His career WAR is not even 40, which is less than HALF of Chipper's, for instance. Rivera being the first unanimous inductee is just as dumb as Harold Baines getting in.
 
TheRunningAgent said:
I would trade Albies for Yelich all day, every day.
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It should be noted that they were asking for Acuna....not Ozzie. They have ask for Ozzie for two years of a catcher who won’t play every day and will not even be very cheap.

So you would make the trade “all day”, when Yelich had a career year and Albies was basically a rookie?

It might be a good trade. Both their numbers could flip flop next year though.

Hindsight is 20/20, but no one saw Yelich making that kind of jump, and I’m not convinced he sustains it.

Albies could bite the dust, but he “should” end up with a greater WAR in the end.
 
CrazyTrain said:
This is the problem with constantly looking at FV over actual value. How can you say you'd rather have Albies when Yelich won the MVP last year? Look at how cheaply the 2B could've been had this offseason and now we are going to be starting NICK F MARKAKIS in right.
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You have to look at expected future performance relative to cost. It is not something that can be avoided.
 
At the end of this season the following salaries potentially come off the books: Donaldson (23M), Teheran (11), O'Day (9), Viz (4.8), Muk (4), McCann(2). There will be some offsets from raises and payouts from options declined. But that's a lot of dough to play with. It seems to me this was part of the game plan that has been executed this off-season.

In thinking about who we might pursue next off-season, Grandal stands out as a logical possibility. He will no longer have a QO attached.

By next off-season, I think we will be in a better position to make judgments as to the future roles of Riley and Camargo. Can they play the outfield. Should they be counted on as regulars. This will allow us to make a better informed decision as to where to commit the $$$ and maybe prospect capital for making a long-term commitment to someone at third or corner outfield.

Finally, we will also be in a much better position to evaluate starting pitching needs.

The desirability of having an additional season to evaluate Camargo, Riley, the starting pitchers, and maybe Pache and Waters drove a lot of our strategy this off-season. When he was first hired AA made the point he needed time to make his own evaluations of all of these guys. I think even after a season as GM, he felt more time was needed before making long-term commitments. So he has made a bunch of short-term moves that leave the team in decent shape for 2019 but even better shape (especially in terms of financial flexibility) next off-season and beyond.

He has also relentlessly pursued value acquisitions in his tenure in Atlanta so far this year. This is something I'm very happy about. I hope it continues.
 
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