i'm definitely in the boat that the rotation needed serious upgrading and not just in one spot, and i think AA got two of the better-bet starters available. i think going into the year with Wright or Wilson as your set #5 would be a failure, and i strongly prefer say $11M for Smyly than someone like Lester for $5M. i think with someone like Lester, while he'll give you innings, you know what you're going to get: an aging, clearly declining pitcher who's hovering around replacement level. with Smyly, i think there's still some upside based on his metrics last year. he gives your rotation the chance to be very good, especially for shorter stints in the playoffs.
as i said, i think it was/still is fair to question the Smyly signing, especially considering the timing. as more deals have come in, it looks more and more logical. and i'm certainly not upset about it because it may have prevented AA from signing Asdrubal Cabrera and instead forced him to sign Kipnis, or that Melancon signed elsewhere because of it. i think you can replace someone like Melancon for a fraction of his price. i'd rather take a gamble on a potentially big piece than worry about the edges of the roster. as important as i think strong depth is, i don't think Cabrera is some big get while Kipnis is garbage. i just don't think they'll be functionally THAT different.