2016 DRAFT Signing Tracker ... FINAL, JULY 15
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
dak
Well-known member
Agreed with this. I would set the over / under on what Lewis would have sought at $5.5m if he was drafted at 3. This is a guy who was on the short list for all the top teams just days before the draft. I don't think he had any reason to believe he was going to drop to 11th.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
sturg33
I
This doesn't make any sense.
Let's work this through.
Lewis' leverage was that he could go back to college. He got drafted at 11, and signed for $3.2M. Meaning, he had the opportunity to say no and return to college to get drafted next year. And doing so would have left him with a potential upside of ~$5.7M (if he were to get drafted first). And - since he was drafted 11th, he had more room to climb to capture that upside. But of course - he'd have ZERO leverage next year
Now, let's say he got drafted 3rd... and the Braves offered him $4M to sign (they could have offered more, but just for argument)... He would have had to say NO, I'm going back to college because if I get drafted 1st next year, there would be a potential upside of $5M. Also - in order to get that upside, I'd have to improve my status from #3 to #1 (less room for advancement). Additionally - I'll have zero leverage next year.
I'm not saying he wouldn't ask for $5+M.. but I'm saying with relative certainty that he would have signed for $4M... unless he's an idiot
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
bahahahaha
if he were drafted to a place with a slot value of 6.5, after hearing for weeks he was one of the top players, you can say "with relative certainty" that he signs for 4m?! no, you cannot. YOU can say very little about this with relative certainty because you don't know a damn thing.
it makes plenty of sense because falling to 11 changes the situation. if he were taken 3, in his and his agent's mind, that's where he was supposed to go. realizing that teams aren't as high on you as some writers thought they would/should be is likely a little sobering. Senzel signed for 1.5 under slot, and very few had him ranked above Lewis. If Lewis is taken at 3, with Senzel getting 6.2 at 2, you can tell yourself you're certain Lewis signs for 4, but you're wrong. You don't know as much as you think or pretend.
sturg33
I
Well then I guess we should expect Anderson to sign for $6M then... as he was drafted at 3. And he DESERVED to be drafted at 3!
If you're telling me the guy would forfeit his leverage to sign for $3.2M, then I'll tell you the same guy will forfeit his leverage to sign for $4M... if he doesn't, he's probably voting for Bernie.
Under this logic, college juniors have basically no leverage and all of them should be able to sign for $1 million or less, no matter where they're drafted. Because once they go back as a senior, they have no leverage and will have to sign for $50,000 or so.
Both sides have leverage. Lewis could just say, 'No, I won't sign for less than ___ because I'll go back to college' and the Braves could say, 'We won't sign you for that, we'll just get a 1st next year.' In reality, neither one wants the signing not to happen. Lewis wants it because he doesn't want to go back to school for his senior year and lose his leverage, and the Braves want it because they want the player they drafted at 3 and they also want the extra slot room to sign later guys. If they don't sign Lewis, they lose him plus probably Wentz or whoever they took at 40.
Lewis would likely demand more at 3 than at 11. How much? It's all speculation, but the Braves aren't just going to say, 'Take $4 million or forget about it' and then not actually sign him. It would still be advantageous for them to sign him at $5 or $5.5 million. So if he held out long enough, they'd probably cave on it. And his agent knows this.
You continue to treat negotiations as far easier on the team side than they really are. Sure, Lewis did sign for $3.2. But the Braves wouldn't have that knowledge had they taken him at 3, and it's not as though Lewis' agent is going to walk in and say, 'We don't need more than 3.2, that's his figure.' They're going to use the fact that he was taken at 3 and the slot value there to push the Braves as high as they can. That's the way it works. You can't push the team at 11 nearly as far as you can the team at 3.
sturg33
I
The logic wasn't that juniors have no leverage. It's that the risk of going back far outweighs the reward... He has a defined upside, but an unlimited downside.
Your point - by the way - is not wrong. But as I've said, if he'll give up his leverage for 3 then he'll do it for 4. The Braves had the money to give anyone they picked at 3 basically the slot value of the 6th pick... that's not too difficult of an argument to make if you're the team.
dak
Well-known member
I follow your logic, and concede that it makes sense on paper. Just not sure there's evidence that it actually plays out this way in practice for college juniors. Looking at the past - let's say - five drafts, is there evidence that most college juniors drafted in the top 10 are forced to take DEEP discounts to sign? To put a number on what I mean by DEEP discounts, Lewis taking $4m at pick #3 would mean he's signing for 60% of slot.
Deester11
Well-known member
And yet the few naysayers say the strategy was flawed. I'd venture to say that IF the Braves wanted him, he'd be a Brave. I like the pitchers we got. Doesn't much matter about the hand wringing on either side. I'm in with the FO on this.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
operating in hindsight is so easy. unfortunately that's not how things work.
too bad ron paul couldn't get to where bernie did :/
sturg33
I
Yes - this is all hindsight. That's true.
And Ron Paul lost just like Bernie lost... just didn't whine as much doing so. Difference between a libertarian and socialist, though
sturg33
I
The draft was fine. We got good talent. I'm not that upset about the talent acquired.
But the complete lack of attention paid to hitters is starting to get alarming, if you ask me
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
exactly. the logic makes sense in a vacuum, but things don't play out that simply. lewis going 11 instead of 3 changes the situation a helluva lot. if taken at 3, no one has the benefit of the hindsight of "oh well at 11 you would've signed for 3.2 so how's 4 sound?" It just doesn't work like that. he wouldn't take 60% of slot if taken at 3 just because he's a college junior.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
one got a lot more traction, one was a joke the whole time (and one seemed like a great idea to 12-yr old me).
sturg33
I
One promised a bunch of dumb kids he'll give them the world at no cost to them... truly a cartoon character, and had the benefit of having a 1-1 with one of the most hated candidates in US history who is under federal criminal investigation. .
One dealt with economic reality. Difficult for the dummies to understand
But we can debate that on the other board, if you'd like.
dak
Well-known member
It's a relatively small sample, but here is the % of slot that these top 10 college juniors signed for in 2015. No one below 76%, weighted average at 87%.
Bonus Slot % of Slot
Swanson: 6500000 8600000 76%
Bregman: 5900000 7400000 80%
Tate: 4200000 5000000 84%
Jay: 3900000 3900000 100%
Benintendi: 3600000 3600000 100%
Fulmer: 3500000 3500000 100%
Happ: 3000000 3300000 91%
Total 30600000 35300000 87%
Bonus Slot % of Slot
Swanson: 6500000 8600000 76%
Bregman: 5900000 7400000 80%
Tate: 4200000 5000000 84%
Jay: 3900000 3900000 100%
Benintendi: 3600000 3600000 100%
Fulmer: 3500000 3500000 100%
Happ: 3000000 3300000 91%
Total 30600000 35300000 87%