weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
Heyward is a FA. Why do you hate Heyward?
2016 Payroll
- Thread starter Enscheff
- Start date
Heyward is a FA. Why do you hate Heyward?
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
By my math I have the Braves at 71.2 million projected payroll which includes Minor at 5.6 million which assumes he gets no raise. I also assume he will be injured so I have a projected 26 man roster. If we were to get a top end starter in FA I could see us dumping trading Minor to a team like the Dodgers who play with monopoly money. Also includes a projected 4 million projected arbitration salary for Miller.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
Wait, was he the fat one or the one with the glasses?
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Heyward is going to get paid like he's a .280, 30HR, .900OPS guy and he isn't. At least not yet.
A lot of the industry love for Heyward is about his potential. Problem is, he's been at the ML level for 6 years and that potential has never arrived and stayed and it may never.
I like Heyward OK and would be willing to take a chance on him but not at the $200M price tag that is thrown around.
A lot of the industry love for Heyward is about his potential. Problem is, he's been at the ML level for 6 years and that potential has never arrived and stayed and it may never.
I like Heyward OK and would be willing to take a chance on him but not at the $200M price tag that is thrown around.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I don't think it is about potential anymore. Heyward is more valuable than guys like Justin Upton and Cespedes. Yes, the defensive WAR numbers can be unstable from year to year because in reality they involve small sample size. But when you look at defensive performance over 3 or more seasons, the sample size issue is no longer as important. And Heyward has consistently been an outstanding defender over a long period now. He will get paid for being a 5 WAR player. And his age will be a plus.
Cespedes is having a tremendous year. But his strong defensive numbers this year are not buttressed by the same kind of defensive track record that Heyward has. I would guess he gets valued as a 3.5 or 4 WAR player.
Justin Upton is better offensively but weaker defensively. The defensive numbers for him are fairly consistent over the past four years. So no sample size issues. He'll be valued at 3.5 or 4 WAR. He is two years younger than Cespedes, which should allow him to land a better deal. Teams will also give him credit for playing in a tougher hitting environment than Cespedes this year.
Tapate50
Well-known member
What about Parra and the contract he will land in comparison? I like his game and would come at a fraction of the cost and time commitment
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Not in the same class as Heyward, Upton and Cespedes. Had one defensive freakish year in 2013 that he has not come close to duplicating. And this season he is having an offensive year (fueled by a .372 BABIP) that is well beyond anything he has done before. If he could point to another similar season it would be a different matter.
I remember it being said that payroll this year was north of 100 m but less then 120 for what it's worth
His defensive numbers are being held down by the brewers playing him in cf most often. His numbers in rf have been consistently good.
That said, his offensive numbers this year do look like a fluke, and they'll likely drive his FA price up too far to be worth it.
JohnAdcox
Brian Jordan's New BFF
Just a thought … how about resigning Kelly Johnson and Uribe next year, and slide Olivera over to second? Jace is super sub and injury protection. Keep Maybin, Smith, and Markakis in the outfield. Blow your money on Price or Greinke and a catcher. Re-evaluate mid-season and adjust for 2017.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Badler and Kiley both think he could play an above average 3B. So I'm not sure where you read he couldn't play 3B.
I've read reports that he should only play 1B, and I've read some where he could be above average at 3B. He probably falls somewhere in the middle, and either way probably can't handle 2B. It would be like putting Uribe over there I imagine.
weso1
<B>Clique Leader</B>
This is why we need to a top ten pick in this draft.
stpeteirish
Called Up to the Major Leagues
We're a lock. We're so bad we just lost the AAron Harang.
stpeteirish
Called Up to the Major Leagues
How about not trading Uribe and KJ for nothing...Just a thought.
keithlaw
Playing the Waiting Game
We might win 1 or 2 more games if we keep Kelly and Uribe for the rest of the season, which doesn't matter at all for a roughly 75 win team while the 2 guys we got back might help us in the future when small contributions could matter a lot. The nice thing is that between Carolina and Mississippi we have lots of marginal pitching prospects (Gant, Janas, Thurman, Parsons, and Whalen off the top of my head). I wouldn't bet on any one of those guys being big league contributors, but we have enough that I bet one will pan out.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Defense is important but vastly overrated for RF. RF make their money with their bats, specifically their power bats (or should). Jeff Francouer has one of the best RF arms in the game, makes exciting plays at the plate and plays pretty good defense but no one thinks he's elite because his bat sucks. Heyward is nowhere near the depths of Frenchy level but he's not a $150-200M player. He cut way down on his strike outs and lost his power. Could the power come back? Maybe. Potentially.
Think about it this way: take a RF who is.270-.280, gonna hit 15hr, strikes out 100 times a year, hits 30 2B, steals you 15-20 bases and has an OPS in the mid .700 and plays average defense. What is that guy worth? Would you be willing to go 7 years $84M for him? I wouldn't but let's assume the answer is yes. Then take Heyward, same stats but with excellent defense. Is he worth 7 years $154M? To me, the answer is definitely no. But, let's assume the answer is yes. Then you are paying $10M extra per year for excellent RF defense as opposed to average RF defense.
Does that make sense?