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[Knucksie]

Heyward is highly regarded around baseball as a premier all around talent.

Yes, that's what everybody was told when he was going to deliver tape measure home runs on a consistent basis and bust car windshields.

And you will see that this offseason.

So, what exactly will we be seeing in the off-season? How much he'll get? That'll really prove that you're Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius. Or will be waiting until his career is complete to accurately assess his performance?

I'm sorry you are butt hurt that Heyward didn't live up to your unrealistic expectations. And yes hitting with RISP comes and goes. Hence the Braves who were good at it at one point in the season now suck at it and are among the worst offenses in the league.

Indeed it does. Lou Gehrig, who's name came up in a previous post is probably the best example. (Apologies to all you "statheads," since you have little concept of the history and probably never actually played.) So, what did he do?

1926: 109
1927: 173
1928: 147
1929: 125
1930: 173
1931: 185
1932: 151
1933: 140
1934: 166
1935: 132
1936: 130
1937: 127
1938: 107

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gehrilo01.shtml

His WAR is included in the details.

Anyway, this is the most extreme example, but it's to illustrate that if you hit with RISP, you do the things necessary to help your team win. That's kind of the purpose. WAR did not exist during that time, and it's doubtful that anybody would've cared. While we're at it, we can also note that this man battled ALS, which was undoubtedly more difficult to deal with the effects of a broken jaw.

 

[Knucksie]

Heyward is near the top of the Cardinals in runs scored. Do those mean anything? Where is Francoeur on that one?

Oh man. You mean to tell us that if a PR, had been inserted instead, that he couldn't have crossed the plate instead of Heyward turning it on after rounding 3rd? Only he could have scored those runs!

 

[The Tariff King]

Even if you don't want to look at Heyward's numbers, you can watch this season and notice the impact of him not being on this team anymore. Since we're going to go with the non-stats approach to judge Heyward, I can count many plays in my head that Markakis didn't make that Heyward makes. Not to mention Heyward's baserunning was marvelous. Think about how that hustle sparks the rest of the team's spirit. To see a guy score from 1st to home on a play most guy only make it to 3rd.

One thing I disagree with the saber guys on here with, is that most saber guys say Heyward hitting leadoff shouldn't have effected his production with the Braves, and that he should've been hitting the same as if he were hitting 2nd or 3rd. I do believe that hitting leadoff changed his approach at the plate, wanting to get on base more to start rallies. It also didn't help that Fredi kept putting Simmons and BJ to hit behind him. If you do believe in protection, well he sure as heck didn't get any help with whoever was on deck.

 

[thewupk]

Yes, that's what everybody was told when he was going to deliver tape measure home runs on a consistent basis and bust car windshields.



So, what exactly will we be seeing in the off-season? How much he'll get? That'll really prove that you're Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius. Or will be waiting until his career is complete to accurately assess his performance?



Indeed it does. Lou Gehrig, who's name came up in a previous post is probably the best example. (Apologies to all you "statheads," since you have little concept of the history and probably never actually played.) So, what did he do?

1926: 109
1927: 173
1928: 147
1929: 125
1930: 173
1931: 185
1932: 151
1933: 140
1934: 166
1935: 132
1936: 130
1937: 127
1938: 107

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gehrilo01.shtml

His WAR is included in the details.

Anyway, this is the most extreme example, but it's to illustrate that if you hit with RISP, you do the things necessary to help your team win. That's kind of the purpose. WAR did not exist during that time, and it's doubtful that anybody would've cared. While we're at it, we can also note that this man battled ALS, which was undoubtedly more difficult to deal with the effects of a broken jaw.

What does bringing up Gehrig have to do anything? He's a HOF level talent and RBI's aren't the reason for that.

Again. Howard has the 3rd most RBI in baseball since 2006. Would you say he's been the 3rd best hitter in that time frame?

 

[Knucksie]

What does bringing up Gehrig have to do anything? He's a HOF level talent and RBI's aren't the reason for that.

Again. Howard has the 3rd most RBI in baseball since 2006. Would you say he's been the 3rd best hitter in that time frame?

You told me (more than once) that RBI producers come and go. This was an example of consistency, somebody who did his job day in/day out and wasn't concerned with how much he was going to earn over the next several seasons.

For the record, it wasn't me, who brought up Ryan Howard. Without having to research, he no doubt had better runners to bring across 5+ years ago. So, the success of the Phillies couldn't be entirely attributed to his contributions.

However, since this is what you're apparently intimating, let's wait and see how the Cardinals do without Black Jesus. Without consulting WAR, the hunch is that they'll probably continue to dominate the division.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Tonight. Yesterday. WTF difference does it make to the point. None.

Look, you refuse to accept that what I am saying is that Francouer and Heyward's offensive year's so far this year are not that different. There are differences but not a .200OPS difference either way or a 60 SB difference. Where there is a difference is one is being paid 950K and the other about $8M. No one in their right mind would be interested in giving Francouer the type of contract that the "experts" are predicting for Heyward or anywhere close.

Heyward's real value is in his defense and in potential. His current bat, last year's too, and almost every year except one, hasn't been remarkable.

I AM NOT advocating for Francouer - far from it. I am using him as an example of a player who would NEVER get the kind of contract Heyward is going to get and I am comparing their YTD stats (give or take a day or two) to show that, while there may be some limited differences, there offense is relatively similar. If you want to argue that Heyward scores more runs. OK. I will agree to that but also say that to an extent that is relative to the team and who is driving him in. He certainly isn't driving himself in since he doesn't hit many HR. If you want to say he's a better base runner then OK, yes he is. But, so what. Is that worth millions per year more simply because he steals 20 bases a year and takes an extra base now and then? Bottom line for offense is their OPS are similar right now. One may be slightly ahead of the other but not by much. Yes OBP is more important in the big scheme of things but if a team is going to rely on Heyward to drive in runs then they better be concerned about his slugging.

Defense and potential isn't worth $10M/year more than what would be given to a player (not Francouer) who has the same offense and average defense.

If Heyward gets what many predict he won't be worth his contract UNLESS he starts slugging. A $20+M outfielder at least needs to be an .850OPS guy, even if he does play great defense.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Also. How can you use all available means to evaluate a player but not care how good his defense is?

I do give Heyward credit for his defense. I say above average defense doesn't warrant him getting $10M/year more than an equal offensive player (I'm not talking Francouer here) with average defense. Not on a good team. Not on a smart team. That would be a luxury that almost every team couldn't afford when constructing their team.

 

[Dalyn]

Tonight. Yesterday. WTF difference does it make to the point. None.

Look, you refuse to accept that what I am saying is that Francouer and Heyward's offensive year's so far this year are not that different. There are differences but not a .200OPS difference either way or a 60 SB difference. Where there is a difference is one is being paid 950K and the other about $8M. No one in their right mind would be interested in giving Francouer the type of contract that the "experts" are predicting for Heyward or anywhere close.

Heyward's real value is in his defense and in potential. His current bat, last year's too, and almost every year except one, hasn't been remarkable.

I AM NOT advocating for Francouer - far from it. I am using him as an example of a player who would NEVER get the kind of contract Heyward is going to get and I am comparing their YTD stats (give or take a day or two) to show that, while there may be some limited differences, there offense is relatively similar. If you want to argue that Heyward scores more runs. OK. I will agree to that but also say that to an extent that is relative to the team and who is driving him in. He certainly isn't driving himself in since he doesn't hit many HR. If you want to say he's a better base runner then OK, yes he is. But, so what. Is that worth millions per year more simply because he steals 20 bases a year and takes an extra base now and then? Bottom line for offense is their OPS are similar right now. One may be slightly ahead of the other but not by much. Yes OBP is more important in the big scheme of things but if a team is going to rely on Heyward to drive in runs then they better be concerned about his slugging.

Defense and potential isn't worth $10M/year more than what would be given to a player (not Francouer) who has the same offense and average defense.

If Heyward gets what many predict he won't be worth his contract UNLESS he starts slugging. A $20+M outfielder at least needs to be an .850OPS guy, even if he does play great defense.

It makes a lot of difference if you want to compare their stats and say that Francoeur's OPS is MUCH higher than Heyward's (like you said) when, in fact, it is lower. The only thing Francoeur is doing better than Heyward is slugging. That's it. The comparison is ridiculous.

 

[Dalyn]

Francouer has a much better slugging percentage and OPS. Look, I will say again, I don't think Francouer is as good a player. I never said he was. But, if your going to pay a guy $150-$200M it has to be for a significantly better player than Francouer with the BAT. Smart teams don't pay RF for their defense.

WAR is a metric and has it's place. But, in this case it is SH*T. Most of Heyward's WAR value is in his defense.

Heyward isn't worth a $150-$200M contract. It's silly to even argue.

Tonight. Yesterday. WTF difference does it make to the point. None.

Look, you refuse to accept that what I am saying is that Francouer and Heyward's offensive year's so far this year are not that different. There are differences but not a .200OPS difference either way or a 60 SB difference. Where there is a difference is one is being paid 950K and the other about $8M. No one in their right mind would be interested in giving Francouer the type of contract that the "experts" are predicting for Heyward or anywhere close.

Heyward's real value is in his defense and in potential. His current bat, last year's too, and almost every year except one, hasn't been remarkable.

I AM NOT advocating for Francouer - far from it. I am using him as an example of a player who would NEVER get the kind of contract Heyward is going to get and I am comparing their YTD stats (give or take a day or two) to show that, while there may be some limited differences, there offense is relatively similar. If you want to argue that Heyward scores more runs. OK. I will agree to that but also say that to an extent that is relative to the team and who is driving him in. He certainly isn't driving himself in since he doesn't hit many HR. If you want to say he's a better base runner then OK, yes he is. But, so what. Is that worth millions per year more simply because he steals 20 bases a year and takes an extra base now and then? Bottom line for offense is their OPS are similar right now. One may be slightly ahead of the other but not by much. Yes OBP is more important in the big scheme of things but if a team is going to rely on Heyward to drive in runs then they better be concerned about his slugging.

Defense and potential isn't worth $10M/year more than what would be given to a player (not Francouer) who has the same offense and average defense.

If Heyward gets what many predict he won't be worth his contract UNLESS he starts slugging. A $20+M outfielder at least needs to be an .850OPS guy, even if he does play great defense.

 

[Dalyn]

VS

Both female. Skin. They both act. There's also hair. Yep. Relatively similar like the Francoeur and Heyward stats.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Current OPS as shown on MLB.com

Heyward .775
Francouer .772

Baseball america had it

Francouer: .772
Heyward: .766

Francouer slugging: .471
Heyward: .429

You take a sliver of the post out and attack it without acknowledging that I gave Hewyard the nod in OBP. Francouer does in fact have a significant slg advantage. The OPS are virtually identical no matter how you slice it or what service you look at. I should have not included OPS as a significant advantage for Francouer as they are virtually identical.

Look, you say I'm not looking at the numbers when that is demonstrably not true. The numbers do not support your position, if your position is that Heyward is a great or even particularly good RF offensive player.

Now, if your position is that he has a great WAR, based primarily on his defensive value and his base running skills then OK.

But, their offensive lines as of today are similar. Not exact. But close. One begs for a team and the other has teams begging for him.

I say the difference in defense and potential isn't worth the money.

 

[Dalyn]

Current OPS as shown on MLB.com

Heyward .775
Francouer .772

Baseball america had it

Francouer: .772
Heyward: .766

Francouer slugging: .471
Heyward: .429

You take a sliver of the post out and attack it without acknowledging that I gave Hewyard the nod in OBP. Francouer does in fact have a significant slg advantage. The OPS are virtually identical no matter how you slice it or what service you look at. I should have not included OPS as a significant advantage for Francouer as they are virtually identical.

Look, you say I'm not looking at the numbers when that is demonstrably not true. The numbers do not support your position, if your position is that Heyward is a great or even particularly good RF offensive player.

Now, if your position is that he has a great WAR, based primarily on his defensive value and his base running skills then OK.

But, their offensive lines as of today are similar. Not exact. But close. One begs for a team and the other has teams begging for him.

I say the difference in defense and potential isn't worth the money.

My position, as it has been since the beginning of this discussion, is that Heyward and Francoeur are NOT all that similar. The numbers support that.

 

[The Tariff King]

I say the difference in defense and potential isn't worth the money.

Well we just gave away our top prospect and an excellent young controlled reliable lefty for "potential".

 

[rawwr]

You told me (more than once) that RBI producers come and go. This was an example of consistency, somebody who did his job day in/day out and wasn't concerned with how much he was going to earn over the next several seasons.

Is the implication here that Heyward doesn't do his job every day because he's too concerned with money? Do you have any other insights into his psyche? Maybe he also doesn't love baseball as much as he should.

For the record, it wasn't me, who brought up Ryan Howard. Without having to research, he no doubt had better runners to bring across 5+ years ago. So, the success of the Phillies couldn't be entirely attributed to his contributions.

However, since this is what you're apparently intimating, let's wait and see how the Cardinals do without Black Jesus. Without consulting WAR, the hunch is that they'll probably continue to dominate the division.

I'm not really sure what you're even trying to argue anymore. Of course Lou Gehrig put up ridiculous RBI numbers - he was a) one of the best hitters ever and b) batting cleanup in some of the greatest lineups ever. His attitude had nothing to do with it. Look at Joe Dimaggio - he held out for a larger contract than the Yankees offered him prior to his second and third seasons, and even missed the first few games of his third season. He still managed to drive in 167 and 140 runs in those seasons. For someone so quick to accuse others of having no concept of history, I'm surprised you wouldn't remember an anecdote like that.

And yes, of course the Cardinals will probably be fine next year. But then the Yankees also won 2 of the next 3 World Series after Gehrig retired. Sure, the 2015 Cardinals aren't the 1938 Yankees, but Jason Heyward isn't Lou Gehrig either (and no one is claiming he is).

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Well we just gave away our top prospect and an excellent young controlled reliable lefty for "potential".

I agree. But, it's relatively cheap potential. It is not hamstring the franchise for 10 years if it falls short potential. Heyward will get A LOT of money. So far, to me at least, he hasn't shown that he deserves A LOT of money.

If he goes to the LA Dodgers and becomes the next Crawford or Kemp, no big deal for them. If he comes to the Braves or other payroll conscious clubs then it is a gamble you better win.

 

[thewupk]

You told me (more than once) that RBI producers come and go. This was an example of consistency, somebody who did his job day in/day out and wasn't concerned with how much he was going to earn over the next several seasons.

For the record, it wasn't me, who brought up Ryan Howard. Without having to research, he no doubt had better runners to bring across 5+ years ago. So, the success of the Phillies couldn't be entirely attributed to his contributions.

However, since this is what you're apparently intimating, let's wait and see how the Cardinals do without Black Jesus. Without consulting WAR, the hunch is that they'll probably continue to dominate the division.

I said hitting well with RISP comes and goes. There is a difference. Gehrig has those numbers because one he was a great hitter. And two the Yankees of that era had some of the best teams around and likely had many more at bats with RISP then most players. Those things count a lot.

 

[thewupk]

I do give Heyward credit for his defense. I say above average defense doesn't warrant him getting $10M/year more than an equal offensive player (I'm not talking Francouer here) with average defense. Not on a good team. Not on a smart team. That would be a luxury that almost every team couldn't afford when constructing their team.

I don't think anyone has argued that. Just by using semantics. A good offensive player who is average on defense is a better player and should make more money than an average offensive player who is good on defense. However players generally can't be classified into such categories. This is why we use stats so we can have precise values.

 

[thewupk]

I say the difference in defense and potential isn't worth the money.

What about the difference in offense? Or do you think Francoeur could be counted on to replicate these numbers for the next 5-6 years? There is a reason Francoeur came in on a minor league contract. For several years he was one of the worst hitters in the league. One half season of good production doesn't change that. Jeff also is a part time player so while his slash line is good this year doesn't mean it would do that if he played in 162 games. And yes base running and defense matter. Francoeur is a poor base runner and horrible defender. Heyward is the opposite. These things all matter and factor into WAR.

 

[thewupk]

I agree. But, it's relatively cheap potential. It is not hamstring the franchise for 10 years if it falls short potential. Heyward will get A LOT of money. So far, to me at least, he hasn't shown that he deserves A LOT of money.

If he goes to the LA Dodgers and becomes the next Crawford or Kemp, no big deal for them. If he comes to the Braves or other payroll conscious clubs then it is a gamble you better win.

Yes there is a risk in any long term contract. However Heyward is a perfect candidate because he is hitting FA so young. And that's how baseball thinking has shifted the last couple of years. Hand out the long term deals to those still in their mid 20's instead of 30+. So in Heyward example he may not live up to his potential. But you are also way less likely to get any dead years at the end of the contract like the Angels will likely get with Pujols, etc. That has value as well.

 

[Heyward]

This is why you are an idiot.

Name calling, really?