Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
If the Braves dont care about the return, i disagree there's no market for JT. For 11/12 mil the next 2 years, there would be a market for him.
2018 Offseason And Targets
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If the Braves dont care about the return, i disagree there's no market for JT. For 11/12 mil the next 2 years, there would be a market for him.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Braves have too many holes to get into that market.
Imo we need a starting catcher, starting outfielder, 2-3 bench bats, 1-2 bullpen arms at the very least.
I think improving the bench is the biggest key this winter, Dodgers didnt have a weak bat on their bench. Quality hitter after quality hitter while the Braves trot out Rene Rivera, Lane Adams, and RF off the bench lol smh.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
I think both Machado (especially if he insists that he play ss) and Harper settle for far less than desired or reported. Both might get the top years. Both might get the multiple opt outs. Both might get the high end AAV. But they aren't getting all three, probably not two of the three.
I think you will see them drag things out for a long time, similar to JD Martinez (I realize both are in a different category than JD but the concept applies) and end up taking less than they thought and everyone else thought they would get.
Both have questions, questions that could be overlooked if the years and dollars were less. Since it's a given that they will sign for big money and will sign for a number of years, the risk is significant.
The big money teams (which are now also the smartest teams) will look at these guys and question the AAV as a percentage of their payroll vs the luxury tax threshold (they also have to worry about the LT changing within the terms of the contracts given) and decide their money will be better spent on JD type deals. They don't need the star power value that goes beyond the field.
Now, I could see a dumb, desperate franchise make a big offer trying to put fans in seats. A team like Baltimore going hard after Harper which would give them the name and possibly pull some attention away from the Gnats.
The Machado thing is really bizarre since I think he will get a lot of big offers to play 3B but many less to play short.
I think you will see them drag things out for a long time, similar to JD Martinez (I realize both are in a different category than JD but the concept applies) and end up taking less than they thought and everyone else thought they would get.
Both have questions, questions that could be overlooked if the years and dollars were less. Since it's a given that they will sign for big money and will sign for a number of years, the risk is significant.
The big money teams (which are now also the smartest teams) will look at these guys and question the AAV as a percentage of their payroll vs the luxury tax threshold (they also have to worry about the LT changing within the terms of the contracts given) and decide their money will be better spent on JD type deals. They don't need the star power value that goes beyond the field.
Now, I could see a dumb, desperate franchise make a big offer trying to put fans in seats. A team like Baltimore going hard after Harper which would give them the name and possibly pull some attention away from the Gnats.
The Machado thing is really bizarre since I think he will get a lot of big offers to play 3B but many less to play short.
Teheran is owed $12M and is a 0-1 win SP with declining stuff.
He has negative surplus value. The Braves would have to eat money just to give him away for no return, and would then go out and sign someone else to fill in the back of the rotation.
We are seeing guys Newk and Fried transition to the BP already, so this "log jam of SPs" is only in the imaginations of Braves fans.
The big money teams reset their luxury tax penalties precisely to bid on Harper and Machado.
They will get paid.
Orphan Black
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
I'd like to see the Braves keep Duda but I don't see that happening. He'll likely get a chance to start somewhere else.
I don't Duvall fits on this team because I don't think he works well as a bench player. I think he needs regular ABs, and I don't think he's good enough to give regular ABs too.
The obviously need an outfielder, and I really don't trust Flowers as the regular catcher. I think Grandal makes some sense. Would prefer Realmuto, but think he'd be too expensive and there is some talk that the Marlins want to extend him.
I wouldn't mind making runs at Jed Lowrie and Michael Brantley. They need to do something about the bullpen too. All the walks are going to give me an ulcer.
I don't Duvall fits on this team because I don't think he works well as a bench player. I think he needs regular ABs, and I don't think he's good enough to give regular ABs too.
The obviously need an outfielder, and I really don't trust Flowers as the regular catcher. I think Grandal makes some sense. Would prefer Realmuto, but think he'd be too expensive and there is some talk that the Marlins want to extend him.
I wouldn't mind making runs at Jed Lowrie and Michael Brantley. They need to do something about the bullpen too. All the walks are going to give me an ulcer.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
They will get paid.
I don't think they will blow past all known records.
I think they end up with "creative" contracts where the team that agrees to pay the big money gets some insurance long term in terms of risk. I don't think it will be all one way: record money, record years, player opt outs while team guarantees everything. I'm sure that is what will be asked for but I don't see teams doing that unless it's a team like Baltimore that has alternative reasons for making the move. I think the big money smart teams will look at the Pujols contract, the Cabrera contract, etc. and be scared to death of $40M of dead money for the last five years of a contract when they realize they don't have to do that.
Where does Machado or Harper play on the Yankees? The Red Sox? The Dodgers? For the kind of contracts being thrown around? None of those teams would pass them up given the right cost. But they don't need them and won't pay a premium for them IMO.
One will probably end up with Philly but they will bid against themselves to sign the player. They've also painted themselves into a bit of a corner with the Santana signing. Hoskins should be at 1B and isn't really play-able in LF.
The Mets might target Machado. Texas might play on both.
But, I think we've seen a market correction where the big money teams started out clearing contracts with an eye on this offseason, then began to include more and more analytics which showed different ways to more cheaply attain the desired results. Everybody assumes that because the big money teams have cleared payroll that they will spend it on big ticket items. That may happen. But I don't think it will to the extent that it historically has. And the agents will moan like crazy. And the players will strike at next opportunity.
Two other names for discussion...
Marcell Ozuna (only one more year of control - MLBTR predicts $13.4 million)
Dexter Fowler (how much would the Cards pay to get him off their roster if you think 2018 was an anomaly?)
They've obviously got a logjam in the OF that trading Martinez doesn't clear up completely (Bader, O'Neill, and Arozarena are ready or almost ready and cheap).
Marcell Ozuna (only one more year of control - MLBTR predicts $13.4 million)
Dexter Fowler (how much would the Cards pay to get him off their roster if you think 2018 was an anomaly?)
They've obviously got a logjam in the OF that trading Martinez doesn't clear up completely (Bader, O'Neill, and Arozarena are ready or almost ready and cheap).
Yanks and Dodgers specifically reduced their payrolls for this offseason. They both will most certainly be in on Machado/Harper. Dodgers may be not so much on Machado since they have Turner and Seagar, but Harper definitely matches up. Puig and Pederson would be trade candidates in such a scenario.
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NYCBrave
Well-known member
His BABIP was .236, that was abnormally low. He made huge improvements to BB Rate and K Rate. Due to the lack of no brainer options out there, dare I say you could even platoon him with Duvall (banking on a bounce back) and get the extra flexibility we need.
They will both beat the current record for FA contract (non-extension record is still ARod's $252M contract), and likely beat Stanton's record $325M contract of any type. They will both get multiple opt outs in addition to the money.
Anyone thinking otherwise is fooling themselves. The biggest spenders reset their luxury penalties for this off season.
This idea that teams who can afford Machado/Harper can't clear a spot to play them is a bit funny.
The Braves should be hoping the team who signs Harper looks to trade away a good OFer. The Nats could make Eaton available, or the Dodgers could make Puig available, for example.
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
I fully expect Philly to give either Harper or Machado a stupid big contract this winter. They have the money and I think thier front office believes they are in a window of contention. I’m ok with Philly overspending on these guys. Will help us in the long run.
The Braves don’t need to be giving out 300 million contracts to free agents. The FO needs to be figuring out how to throw money into extensions for Acuna, Albies and Freddie and maybe a pitcher or two in the next couple of years.
The Braves don’t need to be giving out 300 million contracts to free agents. The FO needs to be figuring out how to throw money into extensions for Acuna, Albies and Freddie and maybe a pitcher or two in the next couple of years.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
I'm not saying he'd have a huge market, and if he was traded, i'd think we bring back Sanchez. But for 2 years, at just over 10 mil a year, thats not a bad deal. If the Braves just wanted to clear his salary.
Rotation: Folty, Gaus, Sanchez, Soroka, Touki.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Considering you have teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees, among other big markets in on them, why would either go to Philly other than money?
When they can get both elsewhere, money and winning.
bravesfanforlife88
Well-known member
I heard on the radio (no source to verify) that Machado is interested in being a star, not just a baseball player....not sure if that is true, but if it is, that probably means more that he would want the money, and be in a big market like LA or NY where he can build a brand.
Hudson2
Well-known member
If he goes to NYY he’ll play 2nd fiddle to Judge. Not sure where he’d play in LA when Seager comes back.
salmagundy
Boras' Client
I don't understand all the talk about retaining Duval. Comments to support those comments all include something like"IF he bounces back" or "IF he returns to normal" and other such comments. There's an old saying about candy and nuts and Merry Christmas. He was hitting .205 when the Reds gave him away(Sims, Wisler and Tucker), and then hit .132 for the Braves
JxnMissFan
Gwinnett Bound
The Cubs, Yankees and Dodgers have smart FO's. They will properly value Harper, Machado, Kershaw which will probably mean 10 year 300 million type contracts. Philly isn't as smart. A dumber FO is more likely to offer a 400 million type contract IMO. A good example of a second tier FO over spending is the Mariners contract to Cano.
Nobody is taking all of Teheran’s contract. He has less than 0 trade value. The Braves will be paying Sanchez plus some of Teheran’s contract.
Just let Teheran fill out the back of the rotation.
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