2018 Offseason And Targets

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TheBravos said:
Gray “could” be better than Julio, but that’s not a given.

Honestly I’d rather see Fried, Soroka, Touki, Gohora, Wilson or Wright.

Unless we get a top of the rotation guy, Let the young guys pitch. Anything else feels like a lateral move.
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Gray's recent performance and durability issues are concerning. Of course, he's been pitching in the AL so there's a little helium to the hitters' stats. But the Yanks are asking a lot for him. I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't want to part for any of our top ten prospects for him and I would be hard pressed to give the Yankees anything other than a couple of lottery tickets. For all the crap tossed Teheran's way (some of it deserved), he's not costing us a boatload and he can always be replaced from within.
 
zbhargrove said:
Puig is a 1-2 WAR player... he's not that good and he's a punk
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how's he a punk?

he posted a 2.7 war last year in 125 games

i'm not saying he's great or the best player in the game but if it didn't take much to get him for his last year of his deal, i would take him
 
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Folks are letting their personal biases for/against certain players color their projections. Comments about Puig ruining Albies/Acuna/Camargo are pretty silly, as if those guys are so mentally fragile they are unable to dismiss Puig's antics and will blindly be influenced by their fellow Latin player. These are professional athletes, and there are plenty of good influences in the clubhouse to handle this type of thing. Puig's perceived issues didn't stop the Dodgers from winning while he was there. In fact, his ~.870 OPS the last 2 postseasons was probably pretty nice to have.

Given 150+ IP and a regression of his BABIP closer to his career and/or league average marks, Gray is easily projected to be a 2-3 win pitcher...just like all the Braves young starters are.

Given ~500 PAs and some intelligently planned days off, Puig projects as an .800-.850 OPS guy with acceptable OF defense who would slot in pretty well behind Freeman in the lineup.

Both guys carry limited downside risk due to being controlled for 1 more year, and both guys are "change of scenery" candidates their current teams would rather unload. They both represent exactly the type of low risk short term value plays we've seen AA prefer lately, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either (or both) in Atlanta in 2019.
 
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zbhargrove said:
Because Porcello is a 2-3 WAR pitcher who had one outlier 5 WAR year. Gio is a 1-2 WAR pitcher. Gray has been a 3+ WAR pitcher when healthy and not pitching at Yankee stadium... it's pretty clear if you actually look at the stats
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And Gray hasn't had a 3 win season since 2014. Porcello is currently coming off a 3 win season. It's clear you are mistaken. Gio has been a consistent 2-3 win pitcher his over his career as well.

What we know about Gray is that he's either been injured or not very good for the last 3 years. Even if he were to rebound in 2019, it's unlikely he'd be much (if any) better than Porcello, and likely not significantly better than Gio.
 
Carp said:
And Gray hasn't had a 3 win season since 2014. Porcello is currently coming off a 3 win season. It's clear you are mistaken. Gio has been a consistent 2-3 win pitcher his over his career as well.

What we know about Gray is that he's either been injured or not very good for the last 3 years. Even if he were to rebound in 2019, it's unlikely he'd be much (if any) better than Porcello, and likely not significantly better than Gio.
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Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
 
thewupk said:
Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
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Not to mention he was well on the way to easily surpassing 3 WAR when he was traded to the Yankees... you know the place where he struggled at home and pitched the same as before every where else? Look I don't want to pay much for him but he could be a good buy low option and he's not the scrub most are making him out to be. He's certainly better than Porcello Gio
 
thewupk said:
Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
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3.3 bWAR. But whatever. Use fWAR if you prefer. Gray has had 2 WAR or less 2 of the last 3 seasons and is coming off a pretty forgettable season. Conversely, Porcello has averaged roughly 3 WAR since 2011 and is coming off a 2.7 WAR season. I'm fine with calling them both 3 WAR pitchers. But Gray is not a "much better pitcher" than Porcello.
 
zbhargrove said:
Not to mention he was well on the way to easily surpassing 3 WAR when he was traded to the Yankees... you know the place where he struggled at home and pitched the same as before every where else? Look I don't want to pay much for him but he could be a good buy low option and he's not the scrub most are making him out to be. He's certainly better than Porcello Gio
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The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.
 
Carp said:
3.3 bWAR. But whatever. Use fWAR if you prefer. Gray has had 2 WAR or less 2 of the last 3 seasons and is coming off a pretty forgettable season. Conversely, Porcello has averaged roughly 3 WAR since 2011 and is coming off a 2.7 WAR season. I'm fine with calling them both 3 WAR pitchers. But Gray is not a "much better pitcher" than Porcello.
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Keep ignoring the fact that one of those years was because of injury and one was obviously influenced by his home stadium when his velocity was still in the mid 90s and his away stats/peripherals/rates were completely in line with/better than his good seasons. I'm sure that's just a coincidence.
 
DirkPiggler said:
The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.
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Actually the point was comparing them since the post I replied to mentioned those pitchers would be better options.
 
DirkPiggler said:
The point is not to compare Gray to those other pitchers, but to compare him to how well our internal options would perform.

If Gray is the best we can do in the trade market, I'd just as soon roll with some of the youngsters with upside and see how they do. If we can get Gray in a deal that is nearly revenue neutral and doesn't deplete prospect capital that could go towards filling more pressing needs, I'm fine with it. But I don't see the Yankees accepting such an offer.
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And yes I've never advocated giving up of anything of value for him. So we can all stop acting like I want to give the farm for him.
 
thewupk said:
Gray: 3.8 fWAR in 2015. 2.8 fWAR in 2017. Porcello 2.8 fWAR in 2018.

Interesting that 2.8 is considered 3 WAR for Porcello but not Gray.
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An interesting question concerning that...

Aren't all these metrics there to help you keep from paying 3 win value for someone who hasn't been a 3 win player in years?

Whatever the reason, Gray hasn't performed at that level in quite some time. Sure he's a buy-low candidate who may bounce back a bit. Thing is, we've already got Gausman, Newcomb, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, and Wright who have just as much chance of being that 3 win Pitcher as Gray does.

Unless trading for Gray somehow gets you Frazier WITHOUT overpaying for either, I'll pass personally. As many have said several times, there's not much reason to go out and get what you already have - if Gray was a legit TOR option things might be different, but he's not. Given his health history, I see very little reason to gamble that he'll get through 2019 more healthy or perform better than Soroka or several others.
 
50PoundHead said:
Gray's recent performance and durability issues are concerning. Of course, he's been pitching in the AL so there's a little helium to the hitters' stats. But the Yanks are asking a lot for him. I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't want to part for any of our top ten prospects for him and I would be hard pressed to give the Yankees anything other than a couple of lottery tickets. For all the crap tossed Teheran's way (some of it deserved), he's not costing us a boatload and he can always be replaced from within.
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He only had one year with injury concerns and suddenly he's not durable?
 
clvclv said:
An interesting question concerning that...

Aren't all these metrics there to help you keep from paying 3 win value for someone who hasn't been one in years?

Whatever the reason, Gray hasn't performed at that level in quite some time. Sure he's a buy-low candidate who may bounce back a bit. Thing is, we've already got Gausman, Newcomb, Julio, Touki, Soroka, Gohara, Fried, and Wright who have just as much chance of being that 3 win Pitcher as Gray does.

Unless trading for Gray somehow gets you Frazier WITHOUT overpaying for either, I'll pass personally. As many have said several times, there's not much reason to go out and get what you already have - if Gray was a legit TOR option things might be different, but he's not. Given his health history, I see very little reason to gamble that he'll get through 2019 more healthy or perform better than Soroka or several others.
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He hasn't? In 2017 he was a 3 WAR pitcher and last year he was the same pitcher when not at Yankee stadium...

Lol and the health thing again... one year
 
Enscheff said:
Folks are letting their personal biases for/against certain players color their projections. Comments about Puig ruining Albies/Acuna/Camargo are pretty silly, as if those guys are so mentally fragile they are unable to dismiss Puig's antics and will blindly be influenced by their fellow Latin player. These are professional athletes, and there are plenty of good influences in the clubhouse to handle this type of thing. Puig's perceived issues didn't stop the Dodgers from winning while he was there. In fact, his ~.870 OPS the last 2 postseasons was probably pretty nice to have.

Given 150+ IP and a regression of his BABIP closer to his career and/or league average marks, Gray is easily projected to be a 2-3 win pitcher...just like all the Braves young starters are.

Given ~500 PAs and some intelligently planned days off, Puig projects as an .800-.850 OPS guy with acceptable OF defense who would slot in pretty well behind Freeman in the lineup.

Both guys carry limited downside risk due to being controlled for 1 more year, and both guys are "change of scenery" candidates their current teams would rather unload. They both represent exactly the type of low risk short term value plays we've seen AA prefer lately, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either (or both) in Atlanta in 2019.
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I'd be excited about watching both next year if we could get them really cheap but there are some here really over valuing Puig and under valuing Gray.
 
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