2024 Field

chop2chip said:
What was Trump’s average approval rating in 2019? And what was his average approval rating in 2020?
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What does that have to do with what I said? It's a fact that his approval rating was at 49% in January, before the first recorded COVID case was ever reported in the US. Then it dropped to 39% less than 2 months after COVID shutdowns started.

But somehow, it gave him a bump?

I'll take "Sh!t That Didn't Happen" for $500, Alex.
 
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Carp said:
What does that have to do with what I said? It's a fact that his approval rating was at 49% in January, before the first recorded COVID case was ever reported in the US. Then it dropped to 39% less than 2 months after COVID shutdowns started.

But somehow, it gave him a bump?

I'll take "Sh!t That Didn't Happen" for $500, Alex.
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A full year of polls > a single (or maybe 2) January poll.
 
But this is semantics

The point I was making is Biden’s approval rating means very little when he’s running against someone who had lower approval ratings. These things aren’t in a vacuum.
 
chop2chip said:
But this is semantics

The point I was making is Biden’s approval rating means very little when he’s running against someone who had lower approval ratings. These things aren’t in a vacuum.
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I still think it's pretty hilarious amd sad that our system managed to produce two of the most hated people on earth as pur two options
 
sturg33 said:
I still think it's pretty hilarious amd sad that our system managed to produce two of the most hated people on earth as pur two options
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One of the biggest self owns in the history of politics is the Republican Party nominated a candidate who is uniquely renders the biggest criticisms of Biden as moot.

Both are old
They had similar policies during Covid
Swing voters hate both candidates
Corruption accusations

Republicans can’t attack Biden without looking like hypocrites. I’ll never understand it
 
chop2chip said:
One of the biggest self owns in the history of politics is the Republican Party nominated a candidate who is uniquely renders the biggest criticisms of Biden as moot.

Both are old
They had similar policies during Covid
Swing voters hate both candidates
Corruption accusations

Republicans can’t attack Biden without looking like hypocrites. I’ll never understand it
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Because he is the only one, Chop.

The only one who can save us
 
Trump losing the nomination would have resulted in Trump taking his ball and going home to ensure whoever beat him loses to Biden. So Republicans nominated him with a figurative gun to their heads. Not that they needed it, but it was there. If Trump lost the nomination he would claim it was rigged by the establishment and tell his base not to vote in the general election unless he was awarded the nomination.
 
chop2chip said:
A full year of polls > a single (or maybe 2) January poll.
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Starting in mid Jan of 2020, it was at 49%. It had some variation over the next 4 months, but it was holding at 49% again as of early May 2020, and averaged 47.3 % over that roughly 4 month span. That wasn't a month or 2 worth of polls. His ratings rose steadily starting in mid October of 2019, peaking at 49% pre-covid and reaching that point again in early May. Then they took a nose dive in late May 2020. The notion that COVID boosted his ratings is silly.

And I am not a Trump fanboy by any means. I wish we had a different option for POTUS on both sides. The fact remains that Biden is universally unliked. He's got us involved in 2 different wars and is hemorrhaging money supporting these wars. And despite Trump being also unlikeable, current polling (especially in swing states) suggest voters prefer Trump over 4 more years of Biden.
 
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Carp said:
Starting in mid Jan of 2020, it was at 49%. It had some variation over the next 4 months, but it was holding at 49% again as of early May 2020, and averaged 47.3 % over that roughly 4 month span. That wasn't a month or 2 worth of polls. His ratings rose steadily starting in mid October of 2019, peaking at 49% pre-covid and reaching that point again in early May. Then they took a nose dive in late May 2020. The notion that COVID boosted his ratings is silly.

And I am not a Trump fanboy by any means. I wish we had a different option for POTUS on both sides. The fact remains that Biden is universally unliked. He's got us involved in 2 different wars and is hemorrhaging money supporting these wars. And despite Trump being also unlikeable, current polling (especially in swing states) suggest voters prefer Trump over 4 more years of Biden.
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Current polling shows Biden in the lead and the likability polls show Trump behind Biden as well

https://news.gallup.com/poll/643100/biden-bests-trump-likability-trump-seen-better-leader.aspx
 
chop2chip said:
Current polling shows Biden in the lead and the likability polls show Trump behind Biden as well

https://news.gallup.com/poll/643100/biden-bests-trump-likability-trump-seen-better-leader.aspx
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Depends on what pollster you are looking at:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

It would seem they are pretty even at the moment, but over the last 2 weeks more polls have Trump leading than Biden. And again, these are national polls. Trump leads by an average of +3 in all of MI, AZ, and GA. And if he pulls those 3 states along with other states he is already likely to pull, then he will win the election.
 
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Carp said:
Depends on what pollster you are looking at:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

It would seem they are pretty even at the moment, but over the last 2 weeks more polls have Trump leading than Biden. And again, these are national polls. Trump leads by an average of +3 in all of MI, AZ, and GA. And if he pulls those 3 states along with other states he is already likely to pull, then he will win the election.
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Carp, again, this is semantics. It’s not really about the polls (which are at best inconclusive and won’t mean anything until the fall).

Why are you so quick to dismiss Trump’s low approval ratings? Yet it’s apparently a death knell for Biden.
 
chop2chip said:
Carp, again, this is semantics. It’s not really about the polls (which are at best inconclusive and won’t mean anything until the fall).

Why are you so quick to dismiss Trump’s low approval ratings? Yet it’s apparently a death knell for Biden.
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Because no POTUS has won re-election with an approval rating remotely that low. I don't really care what Trump's rating was when he left office. He is not the current POTUS. Voters care more about what is happening now, vs what happened 4 years ago.
 
Carp said:
Because no POTUS has won re-election with an approval rating remotely that low. I don't really care what Trump's rating was when he left office. He is not the current POTUS. Voters care more about what is happening now, vs what happened 4 years ago.
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Do you think this election is even remotely similar to past elections?
 
No one with approval ratings as low as Trump lost an election then later on won an election. Historical precedence goes out the window
 
Would a merger between Mar-a-Lago and Camelot prove irresistible for American voters?

That is a question former President Donald J. Trump has weighed as he considers possible options for his running mate, repeatedly asking advisers and associates in recent weeks about the idea of selecting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his No. 2, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/05/us/election-trump-biden

dream ticket
 
nsacpi said:
Would a merger between Mar-a-Lago and Camelot prove irresistible for American voters?

That is a question former President Donald J. Trump has weighed as he considers possible options for his running mate, repeatedly asking advisers and associates in recent weeks about the idea of selecting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as his No. 2, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/05/us/election-trump-biden

dream ticket
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Isn’t RFK’s whole schtick that vaccines are bad? I don’t see why he would agree to play second fiddle to a guy who takes responsibility for Operation Warpspeed
 
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