Austin Riley Apology Thread

Enscheff said:
Back of the napkin calcs...

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), times 40% FB rate, times 20% HR per FB = ~19 HRs the rest of the season. Add the 9 he already has in the bag, and 30 isn't a crazy end of season total at all. It's probably where I would set the over/under for an interesting bet.

400 more PAs, times 60% balls in play (non BB/K), minus those 19 HRs, times .320 BABIP = ~71 more non-HR hits the rest of the season. Split those hits up at a roughly 2:1 ratio of 1B:2B (likely way too many doubles), and that's ~47 more singles and ~24 more doubles.

400 more PAs, times 6% BB rate = ~24 more BBs, bringing the AB total to ~376.

Add all that up, and the rest of season batting line for Riley based on his peripherals is: .239/.286/.455 (.741 OPS) with 19 HRs.

Add that to what he's done so far, and his overall season line projects as roughly: .253/.297/.499 (.796 OPS) with 28 HRs.

His peripherals obviously aren't set in stone at the MLB level after 70 PAs, so I'm going to assume he keeps improving the K/BB rates a bit. I'll take the over on the BA/OBP and the under on the SLG (napkin calcs gave way too many doubles).

Final line: .260/.310/.480 (.790 OPS) with 26 HRs
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Love these posts.
I think most of us had him at 250/300/450-500.

That makes sense. I think his history of improvement suggests that maybe he can grow into 270/333/500.

But for now 750-800 ops seems right. Need to get the walks up and the ks way down.

I’d like to see more of him at 3b for curiosity. Not advocating benching jd
 
Russ2dollas said:
Love these posts.
I think most of us had him at 250/300/450-500.

That makes sense. I think his history of improvement suggests that maybe he can grow into 270/333/500.

But for now 750-800 ops seems right. Need to get the walks up and the ks way down.

I’d like to see more of him at 3b for curiosity. Not advocating benching jd
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Jd is not going to bench but days off and Riley gets some reps there.

But you are right on all the other stuff.

I am waiting while Encheff does the numbers what it the potential of him.

I am thinking Horner and Glaus type of numbers, the dude is really strong and I know he fisted off some balls for singles, they are going to go inside and high on him and hope he chase. He is going to kill everything else.
 
If I was a pitcher, I would go high and inside in the box on him every time, that is his weak spot.
 
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They make a mistake, it will be in the seats.

He reminds me of Bob Horner.

Really.

Horner was quick and compact swing but he pulled everything. Riley is like Horner and Murphy combined, he hit mistakes outside.

Enscheff can confirm this.
 
Craig Mish
@CraigMish
Austin Riley was sent from another planet to play for the Atlanta Braves and dominate the universe.

If you ever have time to go back and ready through his tweets from Riley’s call up, it is pretty funny. You can tell he really wanted the Marlins to get him for JTr
 
AerchAngel said:
When he adjust a Troy Glaus lite.

30 to 40 homer hitter every year, around .260 to .280 avg and about 140 to 160 strikeouts.

Dr. Scheff could confirm this or alter it, he is better than in this but I think he would agree with me.
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I don’t even try to predict skill growth. We’ve seen Acuna improve leaps and bounds in the plate discipline area over the course of weeks. We’ve seen Albies be much slower in making similar adjustments. Riley currently has a significant issue swinging at bad pitches, and missing pitches in the zone.

Riley could certainly go down the classic slugger path where he improves his plate discipline as pitchers start fearing him. Or he could stay aggressive like a Francoeur or Baez and never really improve. Since he doesn’t appear to have the quick bat like Baez, he is more likely to end up as the next Francoeur if he doesn’t improve his approach.

The most likely outcome is what he’s been projected as the whole time: a low OBP guy who hits 25-30 bombs and Ks a lot, and will play just enough defense not to be a huge negative in the field, resulting in a 2+ win player. A nice slugger in 5/6 spot in the lineup. Jake Lamb from the right side.
 
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Nick Castellanos with more power and better defense may be a good comp. Like Enscheff says, that'd make him a 2ish WAR player depending on how good his defense is. If he can be an upper echelon defensive 3b, you may be looking at a 3-4 WAR player.
 
Carp said:
Nick Castellanos with more power and better defense may be a good comp. Like Enscheff says, that'd make him a 2ish WAR player depending on how good his defense is. If he can be an upper echelon defensive 3b, you may be looking at a 3-4 WAR player.
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i don't think he'll ever be an upper-echelon defensive player, but i think his bat could improve a good bit and be better than is being projected. he's been a good bit younger than Lamb at every stop and has been about as good or better, and while it was SSS, improved in all key areas in AAA before being called up.
 
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Super said:
i don't think he'll ever be an upper-echelon defensive player, but i think his bat could improve a good bit and be better than is being projected. he's been a good bit younger than Lamb at every stop and has been about as good or better, and while it was SSS, improved in all key areas in AAA before being called up.
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I mean upper-echelon defensive player like top 5 or so among current 3b, not among all defensive players. Granted he's only played 2 games at 3b, but he made a couple of impressive plays in those games and has a great arm. Also, to have never played LF, he plays it pretty competently. I think there's a decent chance he could be Donaldson or Clint Frazier level defensively over there.
 
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Enscheff said:
I don’t even try to predict skill growth. We’ve seen Acuna improve leaps and bounds in the plate discipline area over the course of weeks. We’ve seen Albies be much slower in making similar adjustments. Riley currently has a significant issue swinging at bad pitches, and missing pitches in the zone.

Riley could certainly go down the classic slugger path where he improves his plate discipline as pitchers start fearing him. Or he could stay aggressive like a Francoeur or Baez and never really improve. Since he doesn’t appear to have the quick bat like Baez, he is more likely to end up as the next Francoeur if he doesn’t improve his approach.

The most likely outcome is what he’s been projected as the whole time: a low OBP guy who hits 25-30 bombs and Ks a lot, and will play just enough defense not to be a huge negative in the field, resulting in a 2+ win player. A nice slugger in 5/6 spot in the lineup. Jake Lamb from the right side.
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Thanks for weighing in. He is already feared.

I agree on most things you said but he will hit more than 30 homers a year if he is full time 3B, you are right on the things unless he adjusts.

Troy Glaus with better speed.
 
AerchAngel said:
Thanks for weighing in. He is already feared.

I agree on most things you said but he will hit more than 30 homers a year if he is full time 3B, you are right on the things unless he adjusts.

Troy Glaus with better speed.
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Glaus had a career O-Swing% of 17.4%, topping out at 23.2% in the last year of his career. Riley's current O-Swing% is 38.2%. That would put him in the Top 25 of 166 qualified MLB players. Riley swings at pitches out of the zone waaaaay more than Glaus ever did, even when he was washed up.

Glaus had a career Z-Contact% of 80.9%, bottoming out at 78.0%. Riley's current Z-Contact% is 67.4%, which is worse than any other qaulified MLB hitter in 2019. Glaus made waaaaaay more contact when he swung the bat at strikes.

I don't see any similarities between Glaus and Riley other than the fact both are RHH 3B with good power. Glaus had a significantly better hit tool and plate discipline than anything Riley has shown as a professional.
 
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Id be more interesting in rolling O-Swing percentages for Riley and see where that is trending. It may end up yielding evem worse results.
 
He will adjust.

z percentage is zone batting contact? I am lost there.

He is like Vlad I guess in what you are saying and need to adjust.
 
He's making more contact lately. No reason why he can't eventually settle in as a guy who strikes out in the low 20s percentage wise. He has shown the ability to adjust in the minors.
 
Where did all the posters go that were crowing about Riley's success?

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...t=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=

The yellow and red lines are the predictive stats that describe actual skills. Notice they remained mostly flat?

The blue line is the stat that was being propped up by pure luck. Notice that line is plummeting?

What will be the next completely unsustainable performance that fools folks into ignorantly defending the numbers against folks who actually know what they are talking about?
 
Enscheff said:
Where did all the posters go that were crowing about Riley's success?

https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.as...art=2019&end=2019&rtype=mult>1=15&dStatArray=

The yellow and red lines are the predictive stats that describe actual skills. Notice they remained mostly flat?

The blue line is the stat that was being propped up by pure luck. Notice that line is plummeting?

What will be the next completely unsustainable performance that fools folks into ignorantly defending the numbers against folks who actually know what they are talking about?
Click to expand...

Using a small sample size to slam other people who were using a small sample size. Yeah you're not a hypocrite.
 
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