David Price expects to be dealt

I'm not understanding the argument you guys are having here...

Some want to give up potential Aces already on the staff in hopes of getting a "proven" Ace that could very well tail off? Didn't we see what happened to Halladay suddenly? Haven't we watched enough Braves pitchers fall to TJ surgery that we know any Ace is one torn ligament away from being useless?

Are we sure we want to part with the required resources to acquire Price knowing how fragile pitchers are in general?
 
thethe said:
I'm willing to be patient with our pitchers right now. its very rare to have guys who are studs right out of the gate. It even took Wainwright a couple of years. The Kershaws/King Felixs are few and far inbetween.

I like the chances of Julio turning into that guy. He was gassed by the end of the year. Next year he should be good to go 220+ innings.
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The problem with being patient is....Heyward, Freeman, Upton, Kim, Minor, Med, etc are going to be Free Agents in the coming years....so unless T or Minor turn into aces in the offseason, waiting does us no good because we are going to lose some of our core to Free Agency.
 
BRule said:
The problem with being patient is....Heyward, Freeman, Upton, Kim, Minor, Med, etc are going to be Free Agents in the coming years....so unless T or Minor turn into aces in the offseason, waiting does us no good because we are going to lose some of our core to Free Agency.
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Braves have a lot of young talent that cost peanuts. If we let Mac walk then eventually Uggla's money is off you can still pay Heyward/Freeman/Upton/Minor/Med plenty. Kimbrel will be traded I have no doubt about that and I have confidence that the Braves will find a closer that will give us 90-95% of the same success rate. Not the sexy stats but not that many more blown saves.
 
BRule said:
The problem with being patient is....Heyward, Freeman, Upton, Kim, Minor, Med, etc are going to be Free Agents in the coming years....so unless T or Minor turn into aces in the offseason, waiting does us no good because we are going to lose some of our core to Free Agency.
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There are no guarantees. Aces become non-aces. It is as significant a risk as a young pitcher like Teheran or Wood not developing. The mindset that you have this small window to win is what produced the Teixeira and JD Drew trades. Another name for it is short-sightedness.
 
nsacpi said:
Wainwright IP the past three seasons: 0, 199, 241

Price IP the past three seasons: 224, 211, 187
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Why would you even use those numbers, when they were injured? Price missed time this year. Missed 3 starts in 2012. Wainwright missed a full year + some of the other season in which he pitched 199. Look at IP/start. That's important.
 
thethe said:
Kimbrel will be traded I have no doubt about that and I have confidence that the Braves will find a closer that will give us 90-95% of the same success rate. Not the sexy stats but not that many more blown saves.
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Definitely, it's possible to build a championship-caliber team without a superhero as closer. The stat came up that Kimbrel was only other closer to save 50 games in the NL since Smoltz & Gagne since 2000. So, teams, apart from the Yankees, have managed to scale the mountain without an All World closer. This become a luxury even for very good or great teams.

Think the future is less unknown with Kimbrel than most of you believe. This is without knowing about who his agent is and what financial ambitions they have. Teams typically don't sell the farm on a closer, so for those expecting a massive haul in a trade, might be disappointed. Think of the history of closers being traded, and what kind of return it go. Not a king's ransom. Next, not many teams would want to allocate that much for this role through free agency. The trend has been to try going younger (read cheaper) for bullpens, all around baseball.
 
Enscheff said:
I'm not understanding the argument you guys are having here...

Some want to give up potential Aces already on the staff in hopes of getting a "proven" Ace that could very well tail off? Didn't we see what happened to Halladay suddenly? Haven't we watched enough Braves pitchers fall to TJ surgery that we know any Ace is one torn ligament away from being useless?

Are we sure we want to part with the required resources to acquire Price knowing how fragile pitchers are in general?
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Halladay worked out pretty damn well for the Phillies for a few seasons. He was also much older than Price when he was acquired.
"Potential aces" is just...it's such a small chance Wood or Teheran become that good. Price has already proven to be that good.
 
nsacpi said:
There are no guarantees. Aces become non-aces. It is as significant a risk as a young pitcher like Teheran or Wood not developing. The mindset that you have this small window to win is what produced the Teixeira and JD Drew trades. Another name for it is short-sightedness.
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Well, I wouldn't advocate trading for Price unless we knew 100% we would sign him to an extension.
 
yeezus said:
I would have taken that one CG he threw in any of the games this post-season. No guy on our team this year was capable of doing that, or anything close to it.
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Thats fine but it goes to show how much of a guarantee an "Ace" gives you.
 
Knucksie said:
Definitely, it's possible to build a championship-caliber team without a superhero as closer. The stat came up that Kimbrel was only other closer to save 50 games in the NL since Smoltz & Gagne since 2000. So, teams, apart from the Yankees, have managed to scale the mountain without an All World closer. This become a luxury even for very good or great teams.

Think the future is less unknown with Kimbrel than most of you believe. This is without knowing about who his agent is and what financial ambitions they have. Teams typically don't sell the farm on a closer, so for those expecting a massive haul in a trade, might be disappointed. Think of the history of closers being traded, and what kind of return it go. Not a king's ransom. Next, not many teams would want to allocate that much for this role through free agency. The trend has been to try going younger (read cheaper) for bullpens, all around baseball.
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I think the return will be high for Kimbrel. There is no history of trading a closer like Kimbrel at his age.
 
Big problem with the Tex trade in 2007 in terms of "going for it all" was that just getting Tex did not make us a WS team. We had several other problems.

I've watched quite a few guys who were supposed to be or "had the potential to be" aces flame out. Sometimes you have to take gambles and get the real thing, and sorry, but David Price has proven to be an elite pitcher.
 
BRule said:
Everyone has risk....but if you look at WS champs 9 out of 10 times they have a stud ace. Pretty sure the only team in the last 15 years that didn't was STL in 06 but Carp was their #1 and could probably be considered an Ace back then or close to it.
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Well then it should probably be taken a step further. If you look at the WS Champs over the past decade (Red Sox twice, Cardinals twice, Giants twice, Yankees, White Sox, Phillies), all of these teams have payrolls well within the top 10 in the league. These are teams who can easily afford to spend on aces, and also big ticket free agent bats.
 
Nobody is saying that Price hasn't proven to be that kind of pitcher but there is so much inherent risk in pitching that he could tail off due to injury at any moment. Conversely he could be just as dominant for the next 6 years. Its so hard to tell and to trade a bunch of cheap talent which is the most important thing a team like the Braves can have is a big time risk.

Some thing that Teheran will be that ace. Some believe Minor is on that path. Medlen has shown long stretches of pitching at that level. Wood showed lots of positive things. Typically teams that win with aces are teams that have developed that ace. It takes too much to acquire one through trade or FA to the point where it severely weakens your team.
 
NYCBrave said:
Well then it should probably be taken a step further. If you look at the WS Champs over the past decade (Red Sox twice, Cardinals twice, Giants twice, Yankees, White Sox, Phillies), all of these teams have payrolls well within the top 10 in the league. These are teams who can easily afford to spend on aces, and also big ticket free agent bats.
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Yup, thts a big factor. These teams can pay their aces 20 million per year while still spending 100 million on the rest of the squad. Something the Braves might not have.
 
thethe said:
Yup, thts a big factor. These teams can pay their aces 20 million per year while still spending 100 million on the rest of the squad. Something the Braves might not have.
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Might not? We definitely don't have that luxury lol. Our only hope really is develop an ace, our acquire one who is close (year or 2 years) from free agency for a high price. When Greinke was a free agent, we weren't even an option, we can't compete in that market.
 
thethe said:
I think the return will be high for Kimbrel. There is no history of trading a closer like Kimbrel at his age.
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Exactly. So, that's the reason not to think that some team is going to mortgage the farm to get him.

Read this:
http://calltothepen.com/2012/01/26/the-great-divide-in-the-pay-scale-of-mlb-closers/

When he starts approaching Pabelbon or even Nathan kind of money, that's going to diminish the potential market. Further, there's the realization that Mariano Rivera was a freak of nature. Elite closers tend not to have long life spans at a high level. GM's realize that they build a bullpen with roles situated for the 6th, 7th and 8th inning guys, then get a closer who's decent or even "good enough" without it costing them a fortune.
 
thethe said:
Yup, thts a big factor. These teams can pay their aces 20 million per year while still spending 100 million on the rest of the squad. Something the Braves might not have.
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Be relieved that Kevin Brown wasn't signed in the late 90's and that Zito really didn't become a Brave.
 
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