Economics Thread

[acesfull86]

https://marginalrevolution.com/marg...ariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data.html

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-WWII, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.

 

[thethe]

https://marginalrevolution.com/marg...ariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data.html

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-WWII, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.

How long is that lag on exports because those figures went up post tariffs. Is it longer or shorter than the April front running inventory purchases which confusingly kept prices low.

If manufacturing activity increases full year next year then what? Probabaly another post to bring up at a later date showing the wisdom of the health care experts.

 

[sturg33]

How long is that lag on exports because those figures went up post tariffs. Is it longer or shorter than the April front running inventory purchases which confusingly kept prices low.

If manufacturing activity increases full year next year then what? Probabaly another post to bring up at a later date showing the wisdom of the health care experts.

Needs to be compared to 2024, not 2025

Ive asked you a couple times what metrics you will insist are the right indicators of the golden age but so far you've declined to give a serious response

 

[thethe]

Needs to be compared to 2024, not 2025

Ive asked you a couple times what metrics you will insist are the right indicators of the golden age but so far you've declined to give a serious response

I have it to you actually during the height of the tariff talks. On several occasions. Found them during my stroll back memory lane laughing at all your guys terrible takes.

 

[sturg33]

I have it to you actually during the height of the tariff talks. On several occasions. Found them during my stroll back memory lane laughing at all your guys terrible takes.

Help a low iq midwit like myself out

 

[nsacpi]

Trade deficit for the first 9 months of the year:

2025 $765 billion

2024 $653 billion

2023 $581 billion

I don't have a view as to whether a trade deficit is a good thang or not. But for those who view one as problematic and were thinking tariffs would reduce it, these are um interesting numbers.

 

[acesfull86]

How long is that lag on exports because those figures went up post tariffs. Is it longer or shorter than the April front running inventory purchases which confusingly kept prices low.

If manufacturing activity increases full year next year then what? Probabaly another post to bring up at a later date showing the wisdom of the health care experts.

Email the authors of the paper and ask them if you’re interested. Maybe they’ll entertain you. While you’re at it you can inform them that they wasted their time because 180 years of data in their sample are invalid due to COVID.

 

[thethe]

Email the authors of the paper and ask them if you’re interested. Maybe they’ll entertain you. While you’re at it you can inform them that they wasted their time because 180 years of data in their sample are invalid due to COVID.

And a modern economy - but hey lets ignore details.

MODELS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT!

 

[acesfull86]

And a modern economy - but hey lets ignore details.

MODELS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT!

Again, feel free to share your concerns with the authors

 

[thethe]

Again, feel free to share your concerns with the authors

There is no need - The results of Trumps economic agenda will force these health care experts into hiding and they'll lose future relevance to everyone except luddites.