Economics Thread

https://marginalrevolution.com/marg...ariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data.html

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-WWII, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.
 
acesfull86 said:
https://marginalrevolution.com/marg...ariffs-evidence-from-u-s-historical-data.html

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges– and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are consistently contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-WWII, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.
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How long is that lag on exports because those figures went up post tariffs. Is it longer or shorter than the April front running inventory purchases which confusingly kept prices low.

If manufacturing activity increases full year next year then what? Probabaly another post to bring up at a later date showing the wisdom of the health care experts.
 
thethe said:
How long is that lag on exports because those figures went up post tariffs. Is it longer or shorter than the April front running inventory purchases which confusingly kept prices low.

If manufacturing activity increases full year next year then what? Probabaly another post to bring up at a later date showing the wisdom of the health care experts.
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Needs to be compared to 2024, not 2025

Ive asked you a couple times what metrics you will insist are the right indicators of the golden age but so far you've declined to give a serious response
 
sturg33 said:
Needs to be compared to 2024, not 2025

Ive asked you a couple times what metrics you will insist are the right indicators of the golden age but so far you've declined to give a serious response
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I have it to you actually during the height of the tariff talks. On several occasions. Found them during my stroll back memory lane laughing at all your guys terrible takes.
 
Trade deficit for the first 9 months of the year:

2025 $765 billion

2024 $653 billion

2023 $581 billion

I don't have a view as to whether a trade deficit is a good thang or not. But for those who view one as problematic and were thinking tariffs would reduce it, these are um interesting numbers.
 
thethe said:
How long is that lag on exports because those figures went up post tariffs. Is it longer or shorter than the April front running inventory purchases which confusingly kept prices low.

If manufacturing activity increases full year next year then what? Probabaly another post to bring up at a later date showing the wisdom of the health care experts.
Click to expand...

Email the authors of the paper and ask them if you’re interested. Maybe they’ll entertain you. While you’re at it you can inform them that they wasted their time because 180 years of data in their sample are invalid due to COVID.
 
acesfull86 said:
Email the authors of the paper and ask them if you’re interested. Maybe they’ll entertain you. While you’re at it you can inform them that they wasted their time because 180 years of data in their sample are invalid due to COVID.
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And a modern economy - but hey lets ignore details.

MODELS ARE ALWAYS RIGHT!
 
Nscapi’s numbers are YTD …thethe is showing September MTD

That thethe somehow believes this is evidence (of what exactly?) overturning the entirety of economic literature on tariffs is just him being his usual ridiculous self.
 
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Oh yeah - This certainly doesn't dismiss the idiotic idea that tariffs are bad for the economy. Look at the degradation over time!

If its getting good now before policies have really taken hold?????

They'll be a severe lack of posting from the likes of you next year regarding tariff impact.
 
Your insistence that this somehow “dismisses” the case for tariffs is yet another example of how clueless you are on this topic. You don’t understand the arguments being made.
 
acesfull86 said:
Your insistence that this somehow “dismisses” the case for tariffs is yet another example of how clueless you are on this topic. You don’t understand the arguments being made.
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Oh yeah - tariffs reduce free trade and stunt growth. Without tariffs growth is always higher. Whoops!

We know you’re going to make the argument more and more abstract because the reality on the ground is tariffs were absolutely needed to reset a system where the US was being gutted.

You were quick to post an article about w monthly increase in trade deficit almost immediately after liberation day as some form of gotcha. Half a year later you think a monthly reduction in trade deficit is meaningless.

It’s very clear.
 
Typical Libertarian economic point of view

Manufacturing is better in low cost areas out of the country and immigration is a massive positive to the economy.

Both concepts will be thoroughly disproven in the next ten years.
 
You’ve literally dismissed every study on this topic that’s ever been done because they don’t show the results you insist must be true. You believe these results are all invalid based on your own arbitrary, irrelevant reasons. You’ve gone as far as trying to bend space and time to convince us that facts on the ground in a particular year don’t count because of what happened in a future year, still one of the most ridiculous arguments I’ve ever seen. I have no doubt that whatever the outcome, you’re prepared to declare victory. “Heads I win, tails you cheated.”
 
acesfull86 said:
You’ve literally dismissed every study on this topic that’s ever been done because they don’t show the results you insist must be true. You believe these results are all invalid based on your own arbitrary, irrelevant reasons. You’ve gone as far as trying to bend space and time to convince us that facts on the ground in a particular year don’t count because of what happened in a future year, still one of the most ridiculous arguments I’ve ever seen. I have no doubt that whatever the outcome, you’re prepared to declare victory. “Heads I win, tails you cheated.”
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Yes - I have said results on the ground matter more than 'theory' partially established hundreds of years ago at a time that is irrelevant to modern day.

WHEN the economy is rolling the next few years YOUR ideology will be throughly debunked.

But in reality what your people will do is say 'The economy would be even better without tariffs! Look at these studies from the 1500's!!!!"
 
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