we're just talking about what ozzie could be for fun...not once was the idea of shaping our offseason on it. your leaps to what you deem to be logic and therefore a conclusion were silly.
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we're just talking about what ozzie could be for fun...not once was the idea of shaping our offseason on it. your leaps to what you deem to be logic and therefore a conclusion were silly.
Hardly. In all seriousness, that not what people mean when they say that. If you were being sarcastic, sorry I didn't see it.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
If I remember someone once said that because pitcher X pitched first he was TOR. I think it was something like that
Sure
It started with Fangraphs listing his FV at 65 which is a 4 WAR all-star. That's his expected, non 1%, ceiling. Literally every player has that 1% chance to turn into some kind of perennial MVP player. Some have a higher chance than others. Is Albies chance to do that higher than others? Certainly. He has the pedigree of a top prospect. Is it still likely? Not really. Why? He doesn't profile to have the typical power needed to reach that level.
You can piss and moan and split hairs all you want. Albies is projected to be a 4 WAR player at his peak and I would think most people in baseball that aren't Braves homers would agree with that assessment. That's really good and we should all be happy about it.
u lame bro
albies is projected by them to be a 4-WAR player.
i'm not sure who's pissing and moaning, but you certainly could've fooled me. today and like every other day. just defending your lil buddy tho, i get it (considering i didn't say anything about or mentioning you in the post you replied to).
sorry, I'm not on my sarcasm A game today
Correct. Do you think the Braves or any other team project him to be higher than that?
thethe thinks he can be a 6 WAR player and posted an estimated XBH list of what he can do. I informed him that level of production is league average power and would not be good enough to reach that level. And it's devolved to people thinking Albies will have good power because someone else has done it and he's shown to be advanced for his age.
tehteh thinks all Braves players are going to reach their Top 5% outcome. Every single one, without fail, every single time. He is as consistent as gravity.
When he's right 1 out of 20 times, he likes to gloat. He is conveniently silent about the 19 times he was wrong.
Problem is, if he is correct 5% of of the time by predicting things that were 5% likely to occur, what exactly did he prove? That math works?
i was here for it.
yep, comparable players would brought up, because that makes sense. his already improving power was brought up, because it's significant. i'd say it was a little more than "someone else has done it and he's advanced," and your obtuseness was and is greatly appreciated, but really we'll just see what happens.
Yes. Two 1% examples were brought up. How many people do you think I can find that don't experience huge power swings?
He was on pace for 5.4 in his age-20 rookie season. With his league average power. SSS, sure, but nothing in the numbers is outrageous. Regardless of how much power he develops, it's pretty easy to see how he could get to ~6-WAR a couple of seasons. We disagree - it's fine.
I know you just try to be argumentative with everyone, and that's fine. Look, I don't think, intuitively, that Ozzie will be a power guy. BUT, if you look at his 1/3 season at age 20, the numbers suggest he might. Nowhere did anyone say 'Because Altuve did it, Ozzie might".
Again, if you extrapolate his 1/3 season to a full season, Ozzie would have had his 4 WAR season already at age 20. If, and I agree there is an "if" factor, but if that is an accurate measurement of his value at age 20, it is certainly reasonable to see him with several years in the 6+ range. That's not just licking your finger and holding it in the air and guessing.
LOL, tehteh literally wrote, “Altuve is a reasonable comp for Albies“. So yes, the usual suspect used Altuve as an example of why Albies will be a 6 win player.
And yes, if someone says something stupid, I’m going to toss out an argument.
If you are going to extrapolate a player’s full season production based largely on his work in September on a terrible team...you’re doing something wrong.
Albies could very well hit his Top 5% outcome and post 6 wins, but nobody with any knowledge about baseball is projecting that for him.
That's sure a relief - now we all know that blackjack dealers don't believe it. That "knowledge" sure has taken you right to the top of the baseball food chain - biggest *sshole on a Braves message board.
Remember when Swanson posted 0.8 WAR in 38 games to end 2016. Stands to reason he will easily post 3+ WAR seasons going forward with a chance to be over 4 and a regular all-star.
Am I doing something wrong? Let's test it. I looked at the past 50 years of MLB and searched for 20 year old rookies, who, like Albies, came up later in the season (your garbage time argument), amassed at least 200 PAs, and had a positive WAR. Not surprisingly, there were only 4 such players, all of whom, like Albies, were on teams who weren't in contention. The four players are Jeff Burroughs, Garry Templeton, Terry Puhl, and Carl Crawford. I extrapolated their age 20 WARs to 650 PAs and compared that to their peak WAR years and their career WARs.
For each ballplayer I listed Actual age 20 WAR, age 20 WAR extrapolated over 650 PAs, (Three highest WAR seasons) and career WAR.
Burroughs: 0.4, 1.3, (4.0, 3.6, 4.6) 17.6
Templeton: 0.9, 2.6 (3.6, 4.3, 4.5) 27.6
Puhl: 1.2, 2.9 (6.2, 3.6, 3.5) 28.3. Sidenote: Puhl missed large chunks of several seasons due to injuries.
Crawford: 1.0, 2.3 (7.0, 5.0, 4.9) 38.9
Now lets look at Ozzie: His age 20 actual WAR was 1.4, the highest of the comps. His extrapolated age 20 WAR was 3.7, the highest of the comps.
All of the comps had seasons with WARs higher, and in some cases significantly higher than their extrapolated age 20 comps. The peak WAR seasons for the comps averaged 2.6 times their extrapolated WAR, ranging from 1,73 times their extrapolated WAR (Templeton) to 3.53 (Burroughs). Their career WARs averaged 12.71 times their extrapolated age 20 WARs, ranging from 9.79 (Puhl) to 16.91 (Crawford) .
Plugging those ratios into Ozzie's extrapolated age 20 WAR of 3.7, if he matches the lowest peak WAR ratio of the 4, he will have a peak WAR season of 6.4. If he matches the average peak WAR ratio of the 4 he will hit a peak season of 9.62. If he matches the highest peak ratio of the 4, he would have a peak WAR season of 13.1 (not happening).
If he matches the lowest career WAR ratio of the comps, Ozzie would have a career WAR of 36.22 and if he matches the average, his career WAR will reach 47.0. If he matches the highest, he would post a career WAR of 62.6.
NOTE: None of these numbers are predictions, they are simply illustrations.
But again, I ask, looking at the historical data, is it so unreasonable to see Ozzie having seasons in the 6 WAR range?