Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
... and going from $17/month to contemplating perhaps his only shot at a big payday.
Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers
- Thread starter rico43
- Start date
... and going from $17/month to contemplating perhaps his only shot at a big payday.
This is the biggest reason for the waffling from me.
Best Case Scenario:
He hits well enough to provide enough protection for Freeman that he sees a few fastballs this year, we save a year of service time while Peraza learns to play CF and Peterson destroys AAA pitching until we find a taker for Johnson, and we win a few more games than we would have.
Worst Case Scenario:
He hits well enough to provide enough protection for Freeman that he sees a few fastballs this year, we save a year of service time while Peraza learns to play a passable CF and Peterson's bat stagnates because he's not being challenged enough while we're trying to find a taker for Johnson - unfortunately wind up being unable to, and we win a few more games than we would have and wind up missing out on the steal of the 2016 draft when he slides to one spot ahead of our pick.
The closer we get to signing him, the more I side with those who ask "why waste the money???". You'd always like to win more than lose, but if you truly believe that your evaluators are right about the players on the way, take the money you'd give Olivera and use it to get something you don't have in the system or use those dollars to make it easier to lock up the pieces you already have.
Tapate50
Well-known member
The Dodgers have made an offer to Cuban infielder Hector Olivera, a source tells Robert Murray of MLB Daily Rumors, and things are "heating up."
The Dodgers have always been viewed as contenders for the 29-year-old. It's unclear what the offer may be and how close it may be to the reported $50 million offer the Padres were considering for Olivera. The Braves are also heavily interested in the infielder, and a deal could be consummated someplace fairly soon.
Source: Robert Murray on Twitter
The Dodgers have always been viewed as contenders for the 29-year-old. It's unclear what the offer may be and how close it may be to the reported $50 million offer the Padres were considering for Olivera. The Braves are also heavily interested in the infielder, and a deal could be consummated someplace fairly soon.
Source: Robert Murray on Twitter
It was only a matter of time
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Sounds like closer to 30 million than 40 million too and that is over 4 years. So we're not even offering near 10 million in AAV. I expect the team that lands him will need to offer at least close to 10 mil per year. That probably won't be us it and likely will be one of the Dodgers or Padres. I am not even confident that we could outbid the Marlins at this point, much less the Padres or Dodgers.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Sweet lord, we weren't even remotely serious.
Right player but the wrong time
Tapate50
Well-known member
Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reports Cuban infielder Hector Olivera is weighing 4- to 6-year offers from several teams.
Sanchez lists the Dodgers, A's, Marlins, Padres, Braves and Giants as having shown "strong interest" in Olivera. A six-year offer would lock in Olivera until he's 36 years old, quite a commitment for a guy who hasn't had a single MLB at-bat. Of the interested parties, the Dodgers, Padres and Braves have been considered the frontrunners from the beginning. Sanchez said a deal could come this week.
Sanchez lists the Dodgers, A's, Marlins, Padres, Braves and Giants as having shown "strong interest" in Olivera. A six-year offer would lock in Olivera until he's 36 years old, quite a commitment for a guy who hasn't had a single MLB at-bat. Of the interested parties, the Dodgers, Padres and Braves have been considered the frontrunners from the beginning. Sanchez said a deal could come this week.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Given our reported offer, I'll be shocked if we win the bidding unless Bowman is just being used here by the Braves to keep how high they'll really go private.
MLBTR also notes that Joe Frisaro reports that the Marlins are comfortable making an offer around 50 million. Sounds like we won't even be able to outbid our division rival the Marlins.
MLBTR also notes that Joe Frisaro reports that the Marlins are comfortable making an offer around 50 million. Sounds like we won't even be able to outbid our division rival the Marlins.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
To be fair, their payroll is smaller than ours. I don't think they have as many LT deals on it, either.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
It's definitely a risk, but might be a pretty good one, and could end up being efficient. LT deals these days are easily 8-10 years, some paying guys into their late-30s. If we could get a guy at 30 and only have him until ages 34 or 35, it would be a huge plus. Difference is he's never played a game in the majors. A lot of people are very convinced he's a legit MLB hitter.
dak
Well-known member
This is the type of leak that is definitely coming form Olivera's agency based on the info provided and the fact that it's coming from Jesse Sanchez. I don't see any team guaranteeing him 6 years. I'm guessing he'll get 3 years guaranteed with a 4th year option. $25m to $30m guaranteed with heavy incentives based on PA on top of that. If it's going to take significantly more than that, we should wish him well and move on.
Rumors are our offer included a rather large signing bonus. Take that for what its worth, but that's potentialy 40+ million offer for a 29 year old who has yet to play a major league game. That seems like a pretty serious offer to me.
If he takes a 6 year deal from the Dodgers, then I'll be more than happy we didn't get him.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Name a good one signed in the last 5 years that worked out well for both the team and the player. Bet you can't. Those deals are quickly disappearing across the game everywhere other than New York.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with passing here, and what's "efficient" about signing a player with health (and age) concerns to...
A.) Get in the way of Peterson/Peraza/Albies at 2B when you've already got Callaspo, EY Jr., or KJ under contract for much less money?
B.) Get in the way of Peterson/Ruiz at 3B when you've already got Johnson under contract for less money?
C.) Play the only position the organization is likely considering spending big money on a free-agent to play next winter when you've got 5 options to play there already?
Olivera would potentially be a tradeable asset if signed for 3/$24 million - 4/$32 million IF he comes in and hits .285/.360/.450 with 15+ bombs in 2015. Spending more money than that on him just isn't a good idea at this point - you could very easily wind up with a backup you're paying $10 million a year for if Peterson/Peraza/Albies/Ruiz develop as expected. There's nothing "efficient" about that whatsoever.
Your willingness to sign a long-term deal when you KNOW you're going to wind up eating an unproductive season (or maybe even two) makes a modicum of sense when you're talking about a franchise player - someone that makes a HUGE difference in the way other teams have to approach you. Going 8 years to get J-Up or Cespedes to hit behind Freeman for a long time may be a necessary evil, but it's far from "efficient". You do it because it often pays for itself in other areas as well.
Olivera's far from that type of player.
Pretty surprising to me that they're even considering signing him to be honest. Olivera's EXACTLY the type of guy that Friedman and his aides were brought in to stop blowing money on. They had to go trade for a 2B and SS for one season to give Seager a little more time (when he'll likely be ready in June) because players like this haven't worked out and they can't unload their contracts.
Erisbel Arruebarruena ss
5 years/$25M (2014-18)
5 years/$25M (2014-18)
defected from Cuba 9/13
signed by LA Dodgers as a free agent from Cuba (via Haiti) 2/14
$7.5M signing bonus
14:$1.5M, 15:$3M, 16:$4M, 17:$4M, 18:$5M
DFA by LA Dodgers 12/31/14, sent outright to Triple-A 1/9/15
ML service: 0.074
Alexander Guerrero 2b
4 years/$28M (2014-17)
4 years/$28M (2014-17)
signed Major League contract with LA Dodgers as a free agent from Cuba (via Haiti) 10/21/13
$10M signing bonus
14:$4M, 15:$4M, 16:$5M, 17:$5M
performance bonuses: $1M annually for 500-600 plate appearances
may not be optioned to minors without permission after 2014
may become Article XX(B) free agent after 2017 season
if traded, may become a free agent at season’s end
agent: Scott Boras
ML service: 0.031
That's $53 million that could've been used in a Pederson or Puig extension, or simply used to pay down some of the money due Crawford or Ethier (like the Braves did with Uggla last year).
Tapate50
Well-known member
You don't know that at this point. That is why these Cubanos are so hot right now. They have high ceilings and can contribute right away.