Julion Teheran over the Years
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
and don't FB velocity usually tick up as warmer weather arrive?
This is absolutely spot on. He hurt his knee in a game on April 11 last year (during which he had a 1 hit shutout going in the 7th), and pitched pretty poorly for 2-3 months with a 4.5 ERA. In the second half of the season he was back to his usual low-3s ERA and mid-3s FIP. He still managed to put up 200 innings despite clearly being bothered by the knee.
There is no doubt in my mind Teheran is a solid MOR starter on a championship caliber team, and his cheap contract makes him extremely valuable.
I think you HAVE to trade Teheran. Have to.
Here's the thing, its all about windows. We stink this year, and regardless of what people want to believe we aren't competing for a playoff spot next year either; not with the Nats/Mets in our division and our young guys just getting their feet wet in the majors.
For me, our window starts to open in 2018, so we are going to hold onto Teheran for the next year in a half and hope that we can start competing at that point? I think that's wasting a year and a half of his value -- while also hoping he can stay healthy which is a risk for ANY pitcher.
There's also certainly the chance that we aren't ready to compete by 2018 and you waste another year of Julio - as much as I love JT (and I do) there's no point in having a great starter/closer on a team that isn't going to be very good. The Braves can be very picky here, but they should be quietly shopping him and when a deal arrives on their doorstep that makes sense they need to pounce.
Yes we do need quality pitching when we are ready to compete, but there's no guarantee that JT is going to be here when that happens, or be healthy when that happens, or be pitching well when that happens. We should attempt to move him at his peak value, which coincides with a weak market right now for starting pitchers. It makes too much sense if you take fandom out of it.
You have to trade him.
Here's the thing, its all about windows. We stink this year, and regardless of what people want to believe we aren't competing for a playoff spot next year either; not with the Nats/Mets in our division and our young guys just getting their feet wet in the majors.
For me, our window starts to open in 2018, so we are going to hold onto Teheran for the next year in a half and hope that we can start competing at that point? I think that's wasting a year and a half of his value -- while also hoping he can stay healthy which is a risk for ANY pitcher.
There's also certainly the chance that we aren't ready to compete by 2018 and you waste another year of Julio - as much as I love JT (and I do) there's no point in having a great starter/closer on a team that isn't going to be very good. The Braves can be very picky here, but they should be quietly shopping him and when a deal arrives on their doorstep that makes sense they need to pounce.
Yes we do need quality pitching when we are ready to compete, but there's no guarantee that JT is going to be here when that happens, or be healthy when that happens, or be pitching well when that happens. We should attempt to move him at his peak value, which coincides with a weak market right now for starting pitchers. It makes too much sense if you take fandom out of it.
You have to trade him.
I can understand that point of view, but now I'll press you to be more specific. It all obviously depends on the return. So what's an acceptable return? A single prospect like Bregman (~1/3 of the Miller return)? Bregman plus a top-50 pitching prospect (~2/3 of the Miller return)? Or the full value of the Miller return? More? Less?
Personally, I would hesitate even at 2/3 of the Miller return, but I'm in the camp that thinks the Braves can be a .500 team next year by adding guys at C, 3B and LF while calling up Swanson and Albies for SS/2B.
I'd probably trade him for a single prospect like Bregman/Bentendi plus a top 100 guy myself. Comparing trades to the Miller trade is not realistic. Or shoot for something like Happ, Contreras, Eloy Jimenez from the Cubs (aka two top 50ish guys and a top 75 guy).
I would need more than just Bregman, and I'd be focused on quality over quantity, I want 2 really good pieces that fit needs at either (3B, OF, C, SP) and I think another lower level prospect with upside should be added in.
So maybe 3 players, 2 big pieces and a lottery ticket or two.
I'm not in a rush to deal him by any means, but I think the Braves should be looking to do it.
This is where I would respectfully question. I think the Braves rebuild is to the point where we have a few specific holes to fill, and we know exactly where those holes are. You don't trade Julio unless you fill one of those holes with something very near to a sure thing. Three pretty good players doesn't do it. Bregman/Benintendi... do. Contreras could... I don't know much about him.
This is not a quantity or total value type trade. If you don't fill one of those holes, don't make the deal.
Agree with both Preacher and mfree, and even auyushu for the most part since 2 top 50 guys and a top 75 guy is about 2/3 of the Miller return. I do think the Braves are at a point to seek quality over quantity as mfree pointed out.
It seems like most people are on the same page. If the value is there, make the trade, otherwise let Teheran and his bargain contract anchor the rotation for the next couple years.
It seems like most people are on the same page. If the value is there, make the trade, otherwise let Teheran and his bargain contract anchor the rotation for the next couple years.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
yuck. that package from the cubs isn't nearly enough.
Pretty much sums it up I think.
That package is pretty much what I would consider a fair trade, the Cubs might slightly balk at it, and many of our fans might gripe about it. Neither side would be a pure winner in the deal. That's assuming Contreras can actually play average defense at catcher anyway, if he can't I wouldn't do that deal either.
I'd obviously prefer quality over quantity and get someone like Bregman/Bentendi/Moncada. But you have to be realistic, top 20 guys like those 3 almost never get traded, and pretty much never when they are top 20 and raking in the minors. And they definitely usually don't get traded for a guy like Julio, who is a #2 starter type. There really aren't many bats I'd consider sure things in the top 100 anyway, so options are limited.
The Indians have two quality OF prospects in Zimmer and Frazier, but don't really need starting pitching. Not really a bunch of options to straight up win a Julio trade.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
If you don't clearly win, you don't trade him. If you trade him, who's in your rotation next year? In 2018? Even if some of our prospects pan out, they aren't likely to be consistent or reliable by then. you're not going to find Julio's production on the FA market at his price. you can't rely on a bunch of unproven SPs. i don't see any reason to deal teheran in a "fair" trade.
I like Contreras, but Happ is a highly risky prospect right now. college guy, supposedly polished hitter, striking out 26% of the time in A-ball at the moment. Jiminez is far away and also a big risk. I think if you trade Julio, you should be aiming to, pretty definitively, fill a void in the major league roster. None of those guys are even close to guarantees to do that.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Having to trade someone gets you in the mindset of settling.
negotiation is about BATNA (best alternative to negotiated agreement-or fall back plan). Our Batna is that (with regression) we have a really good 3 at a team friendly price (I expect salaries to go up and up so even his last number will be under market as a 1-2 WAR pitcher). That's a STRONG position.
I'd aggressively shop him. And I'd try to get a bidding war going.
But I'm not trading him for Fair. Fair gets you the Simba deal.
I'm trading for 2/3 of the Shelby deal. I need an impact position prospect who is projected to be a plus hitter who is at AA or better now. Then you need to throw in another high upside prospect or a MLB player who has put up a multi WAR season and has at least 3 years of control.
Otherwise go to the winter meetings and try it again. At the meetings some GM will be on the hot seat and/or win now mode and there will be NOBODY available as a FA.
cajunrevenge
Well-known member
I understand some people think we won't be competitive next year but it's imperative they pit a decent team on the field. Attendance will spike the first year of the new stadium and putting even a 90 loss team on the field is not going to encourage those fans to come back.
With Teheran I think he is due for TJ surgery within the next 2 years then he will come back with renewed velocity.
With Teheran I think he is due for TJ surgery within the next 2 years then he will come back with renewed velocity.
Fans will ALWAYS come back if you have a winner -- putting a competitive team on the field next year isn't more important that continuing to build with a vision and long-term strategy.
I do think the front office will try to accomplish what you're saying, but I hope they don't lose sight of whats actually important.
I've never had an issue moving JT. My only contention, is that if we are serious about competing in 2016, then we will need JT (or some other similar pitcher to take his place). At some point, you have to be willing to bet on your talent, rather than folding before the season even starts.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
Yeah, that's more my take on him. His ****ty first half of 2015 seems to have a lot of people twisted. He's going to level out a little from this hot streak he's on, but dude has enough quality MLB innings under his belt that he can't be written off so easily.
The .247 BABIP he currently has will come up but the 3.43 FIP is still really good. It's just not ace level. And that's the thing. Julio is not an ace but if we can spin him as one and trade him as one with a very affordable contract then I think that's something you have to consider.
bravos4evr
Still Playing the Waiting Game
I am of the opinion that they should move him this year while his value is at it's peak. If someone wants to cough up two of their top 5 and a low level guy for him, I think you have to make the deal (unless we are talking a crap farm system team like the angels, their top 5 wouldn't be in our top 20)