He's an average pitcher. I don't see how that's a miss. May be he won't ever take that next step into No. 2-3 role (or better). I don't think that makes him a bust.
Megathread: Braves lose Maitan, Bae and 10+ plus International Sanctions.
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He's an average pitcher. I don't see how that's a miss. May be he won't ever take that next step into No. 2-3 role (or better). I don't think that makes him a bust.
Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
Maybe its a sign that I've gotten used to a watching a bad team for the past few years, but I love watching the young pitchers try to figure it out. I've always been an over the top optimist with pitching prospects anyway- I was SURE Kyle Davies would be a stud. But more than anything I think it reminds me of watching the Braves right before and at the beginning of their run in the 90s. Back then you never knew if Glavine would toss 7 scoreless or if he would give up 7 in the first inning. Smoltz was the master of the 40 pitch inning, and Avery was either unhittable or really really bad.
I can't even make it sound rational to myself, but I enjoyed the promise of success in those years more than the inevitability of it later on in the run. Watching Newk and Folty and Gohara makes me feel that way again.
Hudson2
Well-known member
I see Soroka, Wright, and Allard sticking as starters along with Gohara. Even if Folty, Newk, and Touki don't pan out as starters we are in an awesome position bc those 3 would be lights out closers/back end of bullpen guys. So they will still be huge pieces of this team regardless if it's starting or being a lights out pen guy.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Gohara, Soroka, Wright and Allard are all Top 50 type prospects. What's not well understood around here is the high bust rate for pitching prospects that are as highly rated as they are. A good summary can be found in this article.
http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
For pitching prospects ranked 25-50, about 40% end up generating surplus value of 3 WAR or less. In all likelihood 2 out of Gohara, Wright, Soroka and Allard will end up washing out. They may end up having 2 or 3 years as mid level starters but that's it. The other 2 will do better. Those are the actuarial odds. We may do better, but for planning purposes that the assumption a front office should make.
I get this argument... but I also think there is a bit of hyperbole in it as well. Good pitchers come from somewhere. So if 50% of the best prospects fail, then there must be a pretty fair number of guys who were not expected to do much that end up better than projected.
So yeah. Some of these guys will make it and some won't, but some guys who we didn't project will surprise us and be good. The reason the price of pitching is so high is that once it becomes "proven" the element of chance in their development has been significantly reduced. It is pretty much injury based at that point.
We can let other teams figure out who the good pitchers are then acquire them (higher price) or try to develop a whole bunch, knowing that some will make it and most won't. Over time, either could work, or fail. I don't think it is as cut and dried as we sometimes try to make it here, and I don't think we should say "Well, the top pitching prospects failed at XX rate, so the rebuild is a bust."
You try a lot of different strategies, and some of them will work and other won't. Contrary to board opinion. How it turns out (the result) does matter.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Here's how it breaks down. If you looked at the top 20 starters in 2017, you would find 2 or 3 who were not highly regarded prospects. The rest were all on various Top 100 lists coming up. But you have to understand the odds. Over a 10 year period, you will have around 150 different pitching prospects make BA's Top 50 list. From those 150 only 15 or so are currently aces (among the top 20 starters in baseball). It is simply a matter of numbers. The pyramid is very steep and littered with more failures than successes even among very good prospects.
As for the remain 2 or 3 who were not highly touted prospects, that turns out to 1 our of 10 major league teams hitting on that particular lottery. Maybe we will be a lucky team.
I might add the odds are quite a bit better for highly ranked pitching prospect to be league average for a few years before getting hurt or washing out. Those guys are not exactly busts. But they are not stars either. I think we should consider ourselves lucky is 2 of the guys currently in the system end up being among the best pitchers in the game. 2 our of say Gohara, Soroka, Allard and Wright.
Yup. I understand that. I also believe that we don't need them all to be among the best pitchers in the game. You get one or maybe two "best in the game" (depending on how you define that), and a couple more good solid pitchers. You keep a pipeline coming to fill out the rotation from year to year.
It's also important to realize "best in the game" pitchers don't typically stay there for more than 2-3 years.
The Braves should be able to build a Top 10 rotation (12+ WAR) out of the assets on hand. With 3-4 slots being filled by some combination of Teheran, Folty, Newk, Gohara, Allard, Soroka, Wright and Anderson, plus 1-2 spots filled by ~2 win FAs on short term deals, the rotation should be set for the next 5+ years.
Gohara looking like a legit 3+ win guy is a big step towards that 12 win mark.
Oklahomabrave
Anytime Now Frankie...
According to Shanks most recent article Coppy was offered a severance package, which he refused, and has lawyered up.
Also read where “many eyebrows were raised” when Hart and McGuirk played golf with Manfred a few days before Coppy resigned.
Also read where “many eyebrows were raised” when Hart and McGuirk played golf with Manfred a few days before Coppy resigned.
CyYoung31
Shift Leader
LMFAO
Shanks doing what he can to keep Schuerholz clear of any blame.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think it's entirely possible he is never more than a 2-3 win pitcher but if he got there I would not consider it a miss. I don't particularly expect that the braves are going to hit an ace from what they were able to trade for.
Nobody in the position to fire JS cares enough to do that.
Deester11
Well-known member
I totally agree..
Folty didn't step up and become the Ace as I predicted this year, so he's dead to me.
In reality, if he can get back the plus command he showed last year (2.5 BB/9), rather than the below average command he showed this year (3.5 BB/9), I can see him stepping up to be a legit 3+ win guy in 2018 if he throws 180+ innings.
He is mostly maintaining his stuff as he nears his late 20s (still 95+ on both fastballs), but if his control isn't average or better he is a league average (0.327 xwOBA) guy.
Contenders need good pitchers, not a rotation full of average 2 win guys. Folty and Gohara are currently the best chances the Braves have at getting that production.
I agree that we need Folty to take that next step and Gohara (or someone else), along with a return to normal for JT if we have any hope of making the playoffs in 2018.
I was just making the point that Folty need not progress much more to be considered a success. May be he's lucky enough to stay healthy and become another Ryan Dempster. Nothing wrong with that at all, though obviously we hope for more of a Dan Haren career path.
I was just making the point that Folty need not progress much more to be considered a success. May be he's lucky enough to stay healthy and become another Ryan Dempster. Nothing wrong with that at all, though obviously we hope for more of a Dan Haren career path.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Has a little catching up to get on the Dan Haren path.
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
John Schuerholz should be appreciated for the 1990s but it's time for someone to grow a pair and force him to retire totally. But I doubt it's going to happen, because Terry McGuirk has shown he doesn't give a flip.
This is similar to "lack of institutional control".
This is similar to "lack of institutional control".