newest SI cover....

gilesfan said:
Shelby is at 2.8 WAR using the more accurate fangraphs.
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So the more accurate fangraphs WAR which has Shelby Miller and Cole Hamels virtually tied in WAR despite the hilarious 1.43 ERA differential? Get out of here with that weak ****. I like WAR based on results rather than speculation.
 
weso1 said:
So the more accurate fangraphs WAR which has Shelby Miller and Cole Hamels virtually tied in WAR despite the hilarious 1.43 ERA differential? Get out of here with that weak ****. I like WAR based on results rather than speculation.
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So let me ask you a question. Take 2 identical pitchers. Put pitcher A on a good defensive team and pitcher B on a bad defensive team. Pitcher A will have a better ERA. Should he be viewed as a better pitcher because of the defense behind him? Now it's not always that simple but something you need to take into consideration.
 
weso1 said:
So the more accurate fangraphs WAR which has Shelby Miller and Cole Hamels virtually tied in WAR despite the hilarious 1.43 ERA differential? Get out of here with that weak ****. I like WAR based on results rather than speculation.
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so you prefer measures that include things that the pitcher cannot control like team defense?
 
weso1 said:
Which player would you rather have?

Pitcher A: 4.2 WAR

Position Player B: 3.3 WAR

Pitcher A is under team control at a reasonable salary for 3 more years. Player B is gonna cost you megabucks and multiple years and a 1st round draft pick.

You guys will never guess the 2 players.
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I pick Jeff Francoeur
 
yeezus said:
Come on, no credit for the "carry on my Heyward son"?
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I used that as my Fantasy League team name for a long time. My team's name now is John Hart is Senile. I changed it to NOT Senile after the Touissant trade, and then to VERY Senile after the Olivera trade.
 
You mean there's more than one WAR?! I'm just now wrapping up my feelings on the one, and now all WAR isn't created equal? GahdDammit
 
thewupk said:
So let me ask you a question. Take 2 identical pitchers. Put pitcher A on a good defensive team and pitcher B on a bad defensive team. Pitcher A will have a better ERA. Should he be viewed as a better pitcher because of the defense behind him? Now it's not always that simple but something you need to take into consideration.
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Fangraphs has us at 24 in defensive WAR in baseball. Better than the Phils I'll give you that, but only by 3.3 WAR. Not as good as the Rangers.
 
Hawk said:
I used that as my Fantasy League team name for a long time. My team's name now is John Hart is Senile. I changed it to NOT Senile after the Touissant trade, and then to VERY Senile after the Olivera trade.
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i don't know why i thought I was original with that.
 
weso1 said:
Uh, bref does take defense and park factor into the equation.
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well, not really.

To account for defense, we find the overall team defensive runs saved, which uses Baseball Info Solutions' Runs Saved from 2003 on and Total Zone before 2003. We then compute the number of balls in play allowed by the team and the number of balls in play allowed by the pitcher and assign the negative of the proportional team defensive runs to the xRA_ppf values.

xRA_def = (BIP_pitcher)/(BIP_team)*TeamDefensiveRunsSaved

baseball reference gives pitchers credit for things the pitcher cannot control.
 
weso1 said:
Fangraphs has us at 24 in defensive WAR in baseball. Better than the Phils I'll give you that, but only by 3.3 WAR. Not as good as the Rangers.
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Right. That's not the only thing. Blind luck also applies as well. And whether some people want to believe it or not luck can heavily influence a given season as in the grand scheme of things the sample size of a given year is not that big.

But back to my original question. Should the pitcher be soley credited for his ERA? It's dependant on so many factors. Defense, luck, league, stadium, scoring enviroment, etc. It's not all equal.

And one of the reasons fangraphs does theirs this way is they beleive there is a set amount of wins (or WAR) in a given year. Which makes sense as there can only be a set amount of actual wins in baseball. And if you were to give WAR credit to a pitcher with a low era impacted primarily by a great defense and then give that defensive credit to the individual players then you would be double counting. And that just doesn't work.

I know a lot of people see a FIP based WAR as wrong as it doesn't properly show the results generated on the field. However I feel an ERA based WAR is even more wrong considering that a pitcher is not the only one influencing that ERA.
 
As a side note to the above. It does seem Bref does their best to take defense out of their WAR. However that still leaves things like BABIP and whatnot. So take that how you want.
 
thewupk said:
Right. That's not the only thing. Blind luck also applies as well. And whether some people want to believe it or not luck can heavily influence a given season as in the grand scheme of things the sample size of a given year is not that big.

But back to my original question. Should the pitcher be soley credited for his ERA? It's dependant on so many factors. Defense, luck, league, stadium, scoring enviroment, etc. It's not all equal.

And one of the reasons fangraphs does theirs this way is they beleive there is a set amount of wins (or WAR) in a given year. Which makes sense as there can only be a set amount of actual wins in baseball. And if you were to give WAR credit to a pitcher with a low era impacted primarily by a great defense and then give that defensive credit to the individual players then you would be double counting. And that just doesn't work.

I know a lot of people see a FIP based WAR as wrong as it doesn't properly show the results generated on the field. However I feel an ERA based WAR is even more wrong considering that a pitcher is not the only one influencing that ERA.
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I'm not sure why you asking me this question? Clearly I think WAR is a better indicator, but I question the validity of a certain organization's calculation of WAR when the difference in ERA is as extreme as it is.

The difference between b-ref WAR and fangraphs WAR is that B-ref gives a more accurate indication of how the pitcher has actually performed that season. While fangraph's WAR is more of a predictor on future performance. So fangraphs is more speculative rather than an accurate portrayal of his actual performance.
 
thewupk said:
As a side note to the above. It does seem Bref does their best to take defense out of their WAR. However that still leaves things like BABIP and whatnot. So take that how you want.
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But again, the difference between the two teams defensively is hardly anything.
 
weso1 said:
I'm not sure why you asking me this question? Clearly I think WAR is a better indicator, but I question the validity of a certain organization's calculation of WAR when the difference in ERA is as extreme as it is.

The difference between b-ref WAR and fangraphs WAR is that B-ref gives a more accurate indication of how the pitcher has actually performed that season. While fangraph's WAR is more of a predictor on future performance. So fangraphs is more speculative rather than an accurate portrayal of his actual performance.
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Sure. But then you are giving pitchers credit for low BABIP's when that's likely just noise and will regress the following year. Should pitchers be penalized or given credit for what could essentially come down as luck?
 
weso1 said:
But again, the difference between the two teams defensively is hardly anything.
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Right. There is also like a 40 point gap in BABIP between the two pitchers. Also park factors for the two. Philly is a better hitting park than Atlanta. Those will heavily influence ERA as well.
 
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