Newk to AAA, Viz to the DL

nsacpi said:
A fair value deal for Kimbrel would be around 14M per year, 2 years with an option for a third (I would not guarantee the third year). Of course for 2019 his salary would have to be prorated. This applies to a scenario where we sign him after the draft.

The draft pick we give up if we sign him before the draft is worth around 10M. AA should certainly take that into account when deciding whether to sign him before or after the draft and make the appropriate adjustments for what he offers under the two scenarios.
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The Braves 2nd round pick is worth less than $5M

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-on-how-to-value-draft-picks/

At some point Kimbrel for the prorated portion of 2019 plus 1-2 years needs to happen. The current BP isn’t good enough.
 
It was a mistake not to sign him ages ago, but we still have the opportunity to minimize the damage.
 
nsacpi said:
A fair value deal for Kimbrel would be around 14M per year, 2 years with an option for a third (I would not guarantee the third year). Of course for 2019 his salary would have to be prorated. This applies to a scenario where we sign him after the draft.

The draft pick we give up if we sign him before the draft is worth around 10M. AA should certainly take that into account when deciding whether to sign him before or after the draft and make the appropriate adjustments for what he offers under the two scenarios.
Click to expand...

We'd give up something around the 60th pick, correct? Those picks aren't worth close to 10 million. Those picks are generally worth well under 5 million in surplus value. According the this article from Georgetown Sports Analysis, they are probably worth something in the range of 1-2 million. https://georgetownsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/01/21/the-value-of-a-compensatory-draft-pick/
 
At some point you have to evaluate the talent given up in order to stabilize the pen before we cough up too many possible wins and wear down the other arms in the pen. That time has officially arrived and I hope AA realizes that and makes the move to sign Kimbrel.
 
The Braves have done well with their second round picks over the years:

2018 Jenista
2017 Waters
2016 Wentz, Muller
2015 Riley, Herbert
2014 Fulenchek
2013 Caratini
2012 Wood
2011 Ahmed
2010 Cunningham, Simmons
2009 none
2008 Stovall, Spruill
2007 Freeman

I'd be willing to wait until the draft to sign Kimbrel.
 
Carp said:
But I was told we didn't need Kimbrel because our current closer was better, right [MENTION=62]AerchAngel[/MENTION]?
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But he is hurt.

Not a good argument, especially with the money wanted and losing a draft pick on top of it.
 
nsacpi said:
The Braves have done well with their second round picks over the years:

2018 Jenista
2017 Waters
2016 Wentz, Muller
2015 Riley, Herbert
2014 Fulenchek
2013 Caratini
2012 Wood
2011 Ahmed
2010 Cunningham, Simmons
2009 none
2008 Stovall, Spruill
2007 Freeman

I'd be willing to wait until the draft to sign Kimbrel.
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But we keep getting told that 2nd round picks are worth less than 5M so those players are all trash
 
AerchAngel said:
But he is hurt.

Not a good argument, especially with the money wanted and losing a draft pick on top of it.
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When has he not been hurt?

And his asking price had dropped considerably, even before the Viz injury. Kimbrel is worth far more to us than a 2nd rounder.
 
Freshmaker said:
But we keep getting told that 2nd round picks are worth less than 5M so those players are all trash
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actually the $5M is right overall...the Braves seem to have done better by scoring big hits on Freeman, Simmons and Wood...and some of the recent picks look promising
 
Hudson2 said:
I’d really hate to lose the draft pick and money attached but we need Kimbrel plain and simple if we wanna be competitive. He wants to come home so give him a fair offer and just get it done. The back end of our bullpen is not good at all.
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This was in an article on ESPN today.
I think it pretty much says it all in regards to what we should do but also why we won’t.
Hope they prove me wrong.

Put it this way: Rockies owner Dick Monfort recently said the club tries to hold payroll at 50 to 55 percent of revenue. Let's apply that philosophy to the Braves and their Liberty Media ownership. Forbes estimated the Braves at $344 million in revenue in 2018 (with $71 million in operating profit) and Cot's Contracts estimates $138 million in 2019 player payroll. There should be plenty of room for the Braves to add payroll -- and there seems little doubt they could use Kimbrel in the bullpen. And all this is on top of Liberty Media paying $400 million for the franchise in 2007 -- now valued at $1.7 billion. So will the Braves sign Kimbrel? Given the history of this ownership, probably not.
 
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