Jaw
It's OVER 5,000!
That is incredible.
Newk to AAA, Viz to the DL
- Thread starter Freshmaker
- Start date
That is incredible.
Pretty good hit rate, but having an extra 1st makes up for the loss. I'm more concerned about the draft pool than the pick honestly.
Regardless, we need a closer. I really doubt Kimbrel will still be available in June, and a good closer will likely cost at least a 45 FV prospect come July. It's also unlikely said closer will be as good as CK. So you're going to give up a prospect at least as valuable anyways in a trade for likely a lesser pitcher.
I'd rather just sign CK now and get the added value of having him for 1.5 extra months, assuming he would even be available in June.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
it should be kept in mind that a disproportionate part of the value of a closer to a contending team is derived in the post season...between now and the draft kimbrel would pitch 10-15 innings if we signed him tomorrow
having an extra first has no bearing on the value of that second round pick, regardless of what you think that value might be
And what of the cost of acquiring a closer at the deadline, which appears fairly likely at this point in time?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I agree that the contenders premium is an issue to consider...AA has to carefully evaluate his chances of landing Kimbrel if he waits until the draft...I am not arguing there is no risk or downside associated with this approach
I might add that the alternative to Kimbrel is not necessarily another closer...we can shore up the pen without going after a big name closer
i am, however, on board now because of this. someone is going to give it to him, especially as the season moves and pitchers get hurt.
Freshmaker
Arbitration Eligible
This is true, and would've been my preferred method. We've seen several quality arms sign 1 and 2 year deals in the $3M - $6M per year range. At this point though I don't know who all is left that would be an upgrade
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I'm talking about the trade market...guys like Givens of the Orioles and Watson and Smith with the Giants
I'll go ahead and draw my conclusions from the data on all 2nd picks rather than the small sample that backs up the counter point.
The 60th pick is worth less than $5M, and that cost must be factored into any deal with Kimbrel.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
it's an interesting question whether there are team specific effects reflecting drafting skill that is stable over time
Freshmaker
Arbitration Eligible
Ah gotcha ok. I'm less interested in that route since those guys all cost prospects AND money, but since Smith is a FA after this season he might available at a reasonable cost. Watson has a $2.5M player option in 2020 with a $500K buyout and Givens is controllable for 2 more years but is arby eligible
If so I would expect the Braves to have done a lot better with their 1st round picks over that same timeframe than they have.
Or are you suggesting there is some team specific effect that makes the Braves above average in the 2nd round specifically?
My guess is the handful of data points you listed is nothing but small sample noise, and I will continue to base my conclusions on the full data set that suggests the 60th pick in the draft is worth less than $5M.
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
no I'm not suggesting the braves are bad drafters in one round and good in another...that's silly...but it is plausible there is such a thing as drafting skill that might make a draft pick more valuable in the hands of some front offices
to evaluate for something like that you would have to control for draft position which especially matters in the first round...and you need to look at whether this skill has some stability across different time periods...eg do the teams who outperform say in the first half of a decade also tend to outperform in the second half...I'm surprised no one has published a study of this sort
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Doubtful. Even if we signed Kimbrel tonight, it'd likely be a couple weeks before he's ready. This move shouldn't factor into a CK decision. I figure it to be Shane Carle since his 10 days will be up.
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UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Good to see Atlanta was proactive for BP arms in the offseason.