Olivera

Enscheff said:
After you guys are done debating this, go ahead and think about the premium it costs for 5+ WAR players. Here's a hint: you aren't going to win much with a lineup full of mediocre players (1-3 WAR), no matter how cost effective those players are with respect to $/WAR.
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And you also have situations where you have the megastar but the rest of your team is crap because you can't afford anyone else. Like you had the Rangers with Arod. As with all things you need balance.

Look at it this way. If you are the Rangers. You could pay Tex the market value and have his given value at the current market value. Or you could trade him for several mlb ready players who will make league min and give your team good on the field value. You can then use that money you would of spent on Tex to sign other market value talent and excellerate your rebuild. Which is what they did. Make no mistake. The Tex trade lead to the Rangers having the window that they did.
 
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article/145547198/braves-on-30-year-old-prospect-hector-olivera

When we traded for this guy I predicted we wouldn't see him until September and even then he wouldn't hit much before the end of the year. That seems to be exactly what's going to happen with even Hart admitting we're unlikely to see the Olivera they're hoping he can be this season.

I find it entertaining that we were told at the time of the trade that he'd be in Atlanta in a couple weeks. It's going to be over a month between the trade and his activation and even then he's not going to really be ready for the majors.

Reading Hart's quotes in this article and elsewhere, I almost get the feeling that there's a bit of nervousness about Olivera there now that wasn't there before. I don't think they expected him to take this long or look as bad as he has since the trade. They're hoping it's just that he's out of practice but I get the feeling that the unshakable confidence they had in him being a super star has been shaken. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but you didn't see this kind of hedging before.

I've always thought it was telling that the Dodgers were so eager to part with Olivera. If they still thought he was going to be the same hitter that Hart was convinced he'd be then I don't think they trade him, especially not after just giving him that huge contract. They'd find a spot for him. I've always had the suspicion that once the Dodgers got Olivera in their camp and got to see him every day, they were disappointed. I almost feel like they were trying to trade him while other teams were still in love with him. Now that the Braves have him in hand and get to see him every day, they're starting to downplay expectations and hoping a full spring training makes him the guy they hope he'll be.
 
striker42 said:
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article/145547198/braves-on-30-year-old-prospect-hector-olivera

When we traded for this guy I predicted we wouldn't see him until September and even then he wouldn't hit much before the end of the year. That seems to be exactly what's going to happen with even Hart admitting we're unlikely to see the Olivera they're hoping he can be this season.

I find it entertaining that we were told at the time of the trade that he'd be in Atlanta in a couple weeks. It's going to be over a month between the trade and his activation and even then he's not going to really be ready for the majors.

Reading Hart's quotes in this article and elsewhere, I almost get the feeling that there's a bit of nervousness about Olivera there now that wasn't there before. I don't think they expected him to take this long or look as bad as he has since the trade. They're hoping it's just that he's out of practice but I get the feeling that the unshakable confidence they had in him being a super star has been shaken. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but you didn't see this kind of hedging before.

I've always thought it was telling that the Dodgers were so eager to part with Olivera. If they still thought he was going to be the same hitter that Hart was convinced he'd be then I don't think they trade him, especially not after just giving him that huge contract. They'd find a spot for him. I've always had the suspicion that once the Dodgers got Olivera in their camp and got to see him every day, they were disappointed. I almost feel like they were trying to trade him while other teams were still in love with him. Now that the Braves have him in hand and get to see him every day, they're starting to downplay expectations and hoping a full spring training makes him the guy they hope he'll be.
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What I got was jitters about him being hurt. In the Dodgers system he was hitting the dog**** out of the ball. Then he got hurt and hasn't played in six weeks, and when he came back he wasn't hitting.

You could be right. But I think it's the gamble they knew about. Health.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What I got was jitters about him being hurt. In the Dodgers system he was hitting the dog**** out of the ball. Then he got hurt and hasn't played in six weeks, and when he came back he wasn't hitting.

You could be right. But I think it's the gamble they knew about. Health.
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It's a gamble, but I agree that it's nothing they didn't know about. We've seen it with a lot of the Cuban players. Our season is almost twice as long as theirs, and their conditioning is poor. Getting them conditioned properly and used to such a long season is a big part of the transition. I'm not really worried about this season, and I don't think the FO is either.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
What I got was jitters about him being hurt. In the Dodgers system he was hitting the dog**** out of the ball. Then he got hurt and hasn't played in six weeks, and when he came back he wasn't hitting.

You could be right. But I think it's the gamble they knew about. Health.
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I'd be surprised if there wasn't some worry about health. There has to be at least a little concern with the slowness with which he's rebounded from the hamstring, especially considering his age.

I also think they're probably disappointed that he's hit so poorly since the trade. He's not hit much and when he has he hasn't hit hard. They're looking for reasons and have latched onto rust and not having a normal buildup to the season. They might be completely correct but it's stuff that you didn't hear when we traded. They didn't say "We think he's a guy who will struggle for a little while as he adjusts and gets ready but will improve with a more regular season next year." They seemed to think he was a guy who would come in straight away and hit.

I don't think there's any serious worry yet, I think it's more reality starting to set in. They're starting to get over the initial infatuation and see Olivera for what he actually is. Starting to see some of the flaws and the risk associated with him.
 
I think we have to keep in mind the timeline for Olivera since he defected.

September 2014--Olivera defects.

March 24, 2015--Agrees to deal with Dodgers.

May 11, 2015--Gets visa

Since he didn't get the visa until May he didn't have an opportunity to play in spring training. Also his physical showed a small team in his UCL, but not one that required surgery. It should be noted that quite a few pitchers have rehabbed small UCL tears and gone on to pitch effectively without surgery. I don't think a small UCL tear hurts your arm strength. But it does increase risk of a larger or complete tear. Which is why his contract includes a seventh year at a low price.

It is possible (since he has played most of his career at second) that he has arm strength issues independent of the UCL tear that will be an issue for him at third.

It should also be noted that the general consensus among scouts is that he is no longer quick enough (if he ever was) to be a good major league second baseman.

So it could be that he is not well suited to playing either second or third at the major league level. I think that might be a bigger uncertainty than his bat or his various health issues.
 
nsacpi said:
I think we have to keep in mind the timeline for Olivera since he defected.

September 2014--Olivera defects.

March 24, 2015--Agrees to deal with Dodgers.

May 11, 2015--Gets visa

Since he didn't get the visa until May he didn't have an opportunity to play in spring training. Also his physical showed a small team in his UCL, but not one that required surgery. It should be noted that quite a few pitchers have rehabbed small UCL tears and gone on to pitch effectively without surgery. I don't think a small UCL tear hurts your arm strength. But it does increase risk of a larger or complete tear. Which is why his contract includes a seventh year at a low price.

It is possible (since he has played most of his career at second) that he has arm strength issues independent of the UCL tear that will be an issue for him at third.

It should also be noted that the general consensus among scouts is that he is no longer quick enough (if he ever was) to be a good major league second baseman.

So it could be that he is not well suited to playing either second or third at the major league level. I think that might be a bigger uncertainty than his bat or his various health issues.
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Very good points. He missed the whole 2014 season due to defection, ST since he didn't have a Visa, and then got injured. You can see why he may need a little time to get his conditioning and bat timing in order. We've seen a similar situation with Rusney Castillo. The Sox fans are back on the bandwagon after writing him off.

He's too big to be a 2B. That should be out of the question. The UCL tear does scare me a little bit, but if it's an issue his bat will hold up in LF. If he were to need surgery it would suck, but hopefully we would have a better offense by then to make it a year without him and pick up that last year at $1M, and he's a valuable trade chip to cash strapped team, even at the end of his career.
 
nsacpi said:
I think we have to keep in mind the timeline for Olivera since he defected.

September 2014--Olivera defects.

March 24, 2015--Agrees to deal with Dodgers.

May 11, 2015--Gets visa

Since he didn't get the visa until May he didn't have an opportunity to play in spring training. Also his physical showed a small team in his UCL, but not one that required surgery. It should be noted that quite a few pitchers have rehabbed small UCL tears and gone on to pitch effectively without surgery. I don't think a small UCL tear hurts your arm strength. But it does increase risk of a larger or complete tear. Which is why his contract includes a seventh year at a low price.

It is possible (since he has played most of his career at second) that he has arm strength issues independent of the UCL tear that will be an issue for him at third.

It should also be noted that the general consensus among scouts is that he is no longer quick enough (if he ever was) to be a good major league second baseman.

So it could be that he is not well suited to playing either second or third at the major league level. I think that might be a bigger uncertainty than his bat or his various health issues.
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This scares me as well. All reports I've read say his arm is average. That's it's probably strong enough for third but not really a strength. He's not got a whole lot of arm strength to spare and if it slips then he's going to be a huge liability at third.

This leads to a problem. Usually your fail safe positions for a guy like that are first or left. A third baseman hitting .280 with 15 HRs and an OPS around .800 is much more valuable than a left fielder doing the same. If he hit like that he could stick in left, he's just not nearly as rare. First really isn't an option for us.
 
striker42 said:
This scares me as well. All reports I've read say his arm is average. That's it's probably strong enough for third but not really a strength. He's not got a whole lot of arm strength to spare and if it slips then he's going to be a huge liability at third.

This leads to a problem. Usually your fail safe positions for a guy like that are first or left. A third baseman hitting .280 with 15 HRs and an OPS around .800 is much more valuable than a left fielder doing the same. If he hit like that he could stick in left, he's just not nearly as rare. First really isn't an option for us.
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This is also where I'm not sure on the scouting report of his arm. The comparisons to Fryman and Rolen are strange since they both had very good arms. But I'm also realizing that the "reports" can be agenda driven good and bad, thus taken with a grain of salt either way.
 
sturg33 said:
There's no evidence that this guy stay healthy. And also, no evidence he can hit major league pitching.
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He mashed every chance he got before the trade. Thats evidence he can hit major league pitching unless what you actually meant was "He hasnt had a ML at bat yet".
 
sturg33 said:
All I said was there's no evidence he can major league pitching
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There's also no evidence that he can't. Why do you guys insist on arguing over this while offering absolutely nothing other than pure speculation?

We get it...some of you think the Braves paid too much for a 30 year old with 0 MLB ABs. You guys have all said the same exact thing at least 50 times since the trade was made, not once offering anything that even resembles a new thought or idea.

Maybe find something else to focus your fandom on?
 
Enscheff said:
There's also no evidence that he can't. Why do you guys insist on arguing over this while offering absolutely nothing other than pure speculation?

We get it...some of you think the Braves paid too much for a 30 year old with 0 MLB ABs. You guys have all said the same exact thing at least 50 times since the trade was made, not once offering anything that even resembles a new thought or idea.

Maybe find something else to focus your fandom on?
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This is a thread about Hector Olivera.

So, naturally, people are going to talk about Hector Olivera.

One of the chief arguments still unfolding about the Hector Olivera trade is that the Braves gave up too much ready Major League talent for too much unready Major League talent. What's happening right now, in terms of his development, is highlighting that issue. There's nothing new to talk about because Olivera hasn't done anything. I suspect that we'll see 'new thoughts or ideas' evolve once Olivera actually has a major league at-bat, but until that moment it's all fair game.

Take it or leave it, I don't really care, but just please spare us the juvenile hissy fit.
 
Actually, the thread was about his positional flexibility and how it could affect other positions on the roster. In other words, an intelligent and new discussion about Olivera that should have encouraged even more discussion.

Then predictably, folks who are completely unable to form unique thoughts of their own dumbed the thread down until it became the same old back and forth about his lack of MLB ABs. I suppose it was my fault expecting to not have to read the same "thoughts" (term used very loosely) over and over and over and over.

I apologize, please carry on with the same discussion we've had 17 times already.
 
Enscheff said:
Actually, the thread was about his positional flexibility and how it could affect other positions on the roster. In other words, an intelligent and new discussion about Olivera that should have encouraged even more discussion.

Then predictably, folks who are completely unable to form unique thoughts of their own dumbed the thread down until it became the same old back and forth about his lack of MLB ABs. I suppose it was my fault expecting to not have to read the same "thoughts" (term used very loosely) over and over and over and over.

I apologize, please carry on with the same discussion we've had 17 times already.
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Again, the title of the thread is "Olivera" -- which seems pretty all-encompassing to me, but then again I'm not the guy pressing for 'intelligent' 'new' and 'unique' posts in a thread concerning a player who hasn't ever played at the Major League level and has less than 53 organizational ABs.

I mean, I guess we could over-analyze his 4 games played at 2B over the past year? That's some heady ****, let me tell you.

I predict that this discussion will occur 17 more times -- at least. Because it's kind of important and it's still evolving. Why you believe posters should relegate the specifics of a trade that happened a month ago to bowels of history is beyond me, although I suspect it has something to do with your position on the trade.
 
striker42 said:
http://m.braves.mlb.com/news/article/145547198/braves-on-30-year-old-prospect-hector-olivera

When we traded for this guy I predicted we wouldn't see him until September and even then he wouldn't hit much before the end of the year. That seems to be exactly what's going to happen with even Hart admitting we're unlikely to see the Olivera they're hoping he can be this season.

I find it entertaining that we were told at the time of the trade that he'd be in Atlanta in a couple weeks. It's going to be over a month between the trade and his activation and even then he's not going to really be ready for the majors.

Reading Hart's quotes in this article and elsewhere, I almost get the feeling that there's a bit of nervousness about Olivera there now that wasn't there before. I don't think they expected him to take this long or look as bad as he has since the trade. They're hoping it's just that he's out of practice but I get the feeling that the unshakable confidence they had in him being a super star has been shaken. Maybe I'm reading too much into it but you didn't see this kind of hedging before.

I've always thought it was telling that the Dodgers were so eager to part with Olivera. If they still thought he was going to be the same hitter that Hart was convinced he'd be then I don't think they trade him, especially not after just giving him that huge contract. They'd find a spot for him. I've always had the suspicion that once the Dodgers got Olivera in their camp and got to see him every day, they were disappointed. I almost feel like they were trying to trade him while other teams were still in love with him. Now that the Braves have him in hand and get to see him every day, they're starting to downplay expectations and hoping a full spring training makes him the guy they hope he'll be.
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I would seriously hope this isn't the case, because all of this was pretty blatantly obvious when we made the trade.
 
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