Olivera

gilesfan said:
Im talking about Phillips, Snantan, Houser, and Hader. Phillips being the jewel. I guess you could debate Perza or him, but you wouldn't trade a middle to top of the rotation lefty for a non top 50 prospect.
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As soon as we figure out how to get that online, it will be online … But for me, Olivera would go ahead of Alex Jackson and just behind Kyle Schwarber. He’s clearly better, for me, than Rusney Castillo, and Olivera is the most big-league ready player of any of the Cuban freer agents.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-top-100-prospects-chat/

That would have put Olivera around the top 20.
 
Chico said:
As soon as we figure out how to get that online, it will be online … But for me, Olivera would go ahead of Alex Jackson and just behind Kyle Schwarber. He’s clearly better, for me, than Rusney Castillo, and Olivera is the most big-league ready player of any of the Cuban freer agents.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2015-top-100-prospects-chat/

That would have put Olivera around the top 20.
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Im not sure what you are saying here. What does that have to do with whether WOod/Peraza gets the Astros package?
 
gilesfan said:
Im not sure what you are saying here. What does that have to do with whether WOod/Peraza gets the Astros package?
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I was replying to your quote "but you wouldn't trade a middle to top of the rotation lefty for a non top 50 prospect"..

Obviously we wouldn't have gotten that package from the Astros, so I assume you were saying that we should have gotten more value by your quote above, which I replied to. It shouldn't be that hard to follow?
 
Chico said:
I was replying to your quote "but you wouldn't trade a middle to top of the rotation lefty for a non top 50 prospect"..

Obviously we wouldn't have gotten that package from the Astros, so I assume you were saying that we should have gotten more value by your quote above, which I replied to. It shouldn't be that hard to follow?
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The question was whether we could get the Astros package for PEraza/Wood. I said yes; there is no one in that package that is top 50.
 
striker42 said:
You can argue that we overpaid based on the value of the players at the time of the trade but that's about all. There's not nearly enough information to determine who will end up with more value from the deal.

Olivera could play 162 games a season for us for the rest of his contract, hit .320 with 25 HRs, and Wood and Peraza could never play another game and I'll still argue we overpaid. I think the package we gave up was worth more than what we got back.

If you see a Picasso at a yard sale with a price tag on it of $10, do you go up and pay the guy $1,000 for it? No. A thousand bucks is a steal for a Picasso but why pay a thousand bucks when it could be had for ten. I think we paid more than we had to for Olivera considering the risk involved there.
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Sold! I will be glad to buy your Picasso for $1K
 
gilesfan said:
The question was whether we could get the Astros package for PEraza/Wood. I said yes; there is no one in that package that is top 50.
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I would say that Phillips is. The difference between what the Braves sent LA and what the Brewers sent Houston is really a useful ML outfielder in Carlos Gomez vs Peraza as I would rate Wood and Fiers about even with Fiers showing better results and Wood being LH. I guess you could have substituted Maybin in place of Gomez and added a piece like one of the relief pitchers sent (Johnson, Avilan) and kept Peraza.

But, the point is would you rather have a relatively unknown 30 year old Cuban who you believe will hit but will have to learn a new position OR would you rather have two near ML ready OF prospects who are both younger than 24 and a couple of Whelan/Gant type arms?
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I would say that Phillips is. The difference between what the Braves sent LA and what the Brewers sent Houston is really a useful ML outfielder in Carlos Gomez vs Peraza as I would rate Wood and Fiers about even with Fiers showing better results and Wood being LH. I guess you could have substituted Maybin in place of Gomez and added a piece like one of the relief pitchers sent (Johnson, Avilan) and kept Peraza.

But, the point is would you rather have a relatively unknown 30 year old Cuban who you believe will hit but will have to learn a new position OR would you rather have two near ML ready OF prospects who are both younger than 24 and a couple of Whelan/Gant type arms?
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I don't think substituting Maybin for Gomez is the same. Gomez was a top 10 player for 2013-2014. His value is way higher than Maybin's.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I would say that Phillips is. The difference between what the Braves sent LA and what the Brewers sent Houston is really a useful ML outfielder in Carlos Gomez vs Peraza as I would rate Wood and Fiers about even with Fiers showing better results and Wood being LH. I guess you could have substituted Maybin in place of Gomez and added a piece like one of the relief pitchers sent (Johnson, Avilan) and kept Peraza.

But, the point is would you rather have a relatively unknown 30 year old Cuban who you believe will hit but will have to learn a new position OR would you rather have two near ML ready OF prospects who are both younger than 24 and a couple of Whelan/Gant type arms?
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Did you just call Carlos Gomez a "useful outfielder" that is comparable to Peraza in value? Did you also just claim Maybin plus a BP arm would have been equal to Gomez?

No wonder you are so down on Olivera...you don't seem to have much of a clue at all.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I would say that Phillips is. The difference between what the Braves sent LA and what the Brewers sent Houston is really a useful ML outfielder in Carlos Gomez vs Peraza as I would rate Wood and Fiers about even with Fiers showing better results and Wood being LH. I guess you could have substituted Maybin in place of Gomez and added a piece like one of the relief pitchers sent (Johnson, Avilan) and kept Peraza.

But, the point is would you rather have a relatively unknown 30 year old Cuban who you believe will hit but will have to learn a new position OR would you rather have two near ML ready OF prospects who are both younger than 24 and a couple of Whelan/Gant type arms?
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No, Fiers and Wood are not even.
 
Enscheff said:
Did you just call Carlos Gomez a "useful outfielder" that is comparable to Peraza in value? Did you also just claim Maybin plus a BP arm would have been equal to Gomez?

No wonder you are so down on Olivera...you don't seem to have much of a clue at all.
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I did NOT say Peraza and Gomez are equal. Gomez is obviously the better player...today. However, he will be 30 and a FA after next year and currently makes $8M this year and $9M next year while Peraza is/was rated by many as a top 40 prospect in baseball.

As for Gomez value vs Maybin a lot of it is perception vs reality. Maybin has the better contract at $7M this year, $8M next year and a $9M option the following year. Maybin is a year younger. He has a career .686 OPS while Gomez has a career .730 OPS. Maybin has a better career OBP at .315 vs .313 (almost identical) while Gomez has a much better slugging at .417 vs .371 where a lot of that is built upon his two very good years in 2013 and 2014 while playing in a very good hitters park while Maybin has mainly played in pitchers parks (Florida, San Diego) or neutral (Atlanta). Gomez has stolen more bases but some of that is caused by the fact that he is older and has more ML service time.

Look, I'm certainly NOT a Maybin apologist. I don't think he's part of the long term vision and should be traded in the best deal the Braves can make. But the perception that Gomez is some perennial great player is just wrong. Both are useful. Gomez is more so based on the fact that he has demonstrated capability of good production for two/three years while Maybin at a year younger and his flashes of improvement this year still shows potential.

At the time of the trade, Maybin was flying high and the Braves were making noises about him NOT being available because he had turned a corner. That has since changed. However, those things happen. Gomez has pretty much belly flopped for Houston.

As for not liking Olivera, I have never said that. I have simply pointed out that the guy is 30 years old, never played a day at the ML level and will apparently be asked to play a position that is not natural to him where his projected prowess with the bat will likely make him mediocre as opposed to elite level if he was playing 2B. He may work out fine. However, I think the gamble is bigger than the gamble that the Brewers took in trading with Houston.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I did NOT say Peraza and Gomez are equal. Gomez is obviously the better player...today. However, he will be 30 and a FA after next year and currently makes $8M this year and $9M next year while Peraza is/was rated by many as a top 40 prospect in baseball.
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I'll smoke whatever Harry's having.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I'll smoke whatever Harry's having.
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Not sure what you are scoffing at, he was rated #38 by MLB, #54 by BA, and #44 by fangraphs before the season started. So not a consensus top 40 pick, but definitely top 50ish. Now if you wanted to have what Harry was smoking when he said Fiers was equal to Wood in value, now that would be understandable.
 
auyushu said:
Not sure what you are scoffing at, he was rated #38 by MLB, #54 by BA, and #44 by fangraphs before the season started. So not a consensus top 40 pick, but definitely top 50ish. Now if you wanted to have what Harry was smoking when he said Fiers was equal to Wood in value, now that would be understandable.
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Yea, I stopped reading after the Fiers and Wood value comment.
 
Braves1976 said:
Yea, I stopped reading after the Fiers and Wood value comment.
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Fiers has shown more in a tougher park. And, while he is 30 and RH he is improving year by year while Wood appears to be declining in terms of stuff. Essentially Wood has being LH, possible potential and age on Fiers, Fiers has better stuff and control. Wood has a slightly better era+ but has pitched in much more friendly locations. I also think Wood is a health event waiting to happen (not that Fiers, nor any pitcher, isn't I've just seen Wood a lot).

Is Fiers ultimately more valuable than Wood. Honestly, no unless you know Wood gets hurt and Fiers doesn't. Who would I take to win one game? Fiers because he is more consistent.

I'm probably more prone to undervaluing Braves players simply because so many over value them. Maybe I'm selling Wood a bit short. With that said, I think there are likely 25 pitchers in the NL better and probably 50 in the majors (although that is gut based not stat or research based).
 
Horsehide Harry said:
Fiers has shown more in a tougher park. And, while he is 30 and RH he is improving year by year while Wood appears to be declining in terms of stuff. Essentially Wood has being LH, possible potential and age on Fiers, Fiers has better stuff and control. Wood has a slightly better era+ but has pitched in much more friendly locations. I also think Wood is a health event waiting to happen (not that Fiers, nor any pitcher, isn't I've just seen Wood a lot).

Is Fiers ultimately more valuable than Wood. Honestly, no unless you know Wood gets hurt and Fiers doesn't. Who would I take to win one game? Fiers because he is more consistent.

I'm probably more prone to undervaluing Braves players simply because so many over value them. Maybe I'm selling Wood a bit short. With that said, I think there are likely 25 pitchers in the NL better and probably 50 in the majors (although that is gut based not stat or research based).
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You do realize the stats you are using to judge them right now include park factors right? Wood is in his first full year as a starter in the majors. He hasn't had time to decline, he's still developing as a pitcher.

Wood has about the same control as Fiers and a better FIP. Wood has a lower K rate but a much better HR rate and ground ball rate. At best Fiers is equal to Wood in performance. And when you have two guys who are equal in value and are 6 years apart in age it's not even a close comparison.

And you need to do some research rather than relying on your gut. Wood is 33rd in the majors in FIP among qualified starters, and in a tie for 38th in WAR.
 
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