Red Sox To Acquire Drew Pomeranz From Padres

[clvclv]

That feels obvious. If he was worth two top 10 guys Boston would of made that deal for him. If he was worth just Espinoza they would of made that deal for him.

Someone made the comment earlier. But a top 20 and a top 50 guy for Julio with another B prospect sounds about right.

As in, Benintendi (#9), Devers (#41), and Nick Longhi perhaps?

I understand completely why they wouldn't want to give that up, but I think those who have valued Julio that way are probably right too.

 

[Tapate50]

I keep coming back to Ian Happ. Probably could be late 2016 ready, could play a mean 3b? Maybe 2b or OF? Possible 20\20 threat?

I know Chicago may not need pitching, but if they truly don't need the position player, they could grab JT and be stacked in the rotation for cheap.

They ought to include other players, but he fits what we need at a position of gross excess with the cubbies.

 

[smootness]

Happ is interesting, he's had a really good year. He strikes out more than I would like for a college hitter who doesn't have a ton of power, but he definitely seems solid. I don't think I'd want him as a centerpiece, though.

 

[50PoundHead]

This is a fine deal for Boston, IMO. Espinoza is so far away, and Pomeranz has put up a 3 WAR so far this year. What are the chances Espinoza does that ever, much less any time soon? It's a gamble on their part, sure, but it is for SD as well. Solid trade for both, but I like Boston's side better.

One of my rules-of-thumb (as if my rules-of-thumb are worth much at all) is that you can't bet on young pitching and you can't bet against it. This is a worthwhile now-for-later risk. I don't know what to think of Pomeranz. This is his fifth organization and he's only 27. I always find that a bit muddy. People either want him or are willing to part with him. The durability question is valid, but it takes some pitcher awhile to find their groove and Pomeranz is still young and has a solid pedigree. Curious as to why the Red Sox want another LHP who will pitch a lot of innings in Fenway.

 

[Tapate50]

I keep coming back to Ian Happ. Probably could be late 2016 ready, could play a mean 3b? Maybe 2b or OF? Possible 20\20 threat?

I know Chicago may not need pitching, but if they truly don't need the position player, they could grab JT and be stacked in the rotation for cheap.

They ought to include other players, but he fits what we need at a position of gross excess with the cubbies.

*Moved comment to Trade Deadline Thread.

 

[Carp]

My comment was based on heyward's absurd idea that Julio is now worth at least Devers and Benintendi

I don't see how that's so absurd. I think its clear at this point that he's worth a top 20ish is prospect and a top 50ish prospect at the very least. That's essentially what Benintendi and Devers are.

 

[sturg33]

I don't see how that's so absurd. I think its clear at this point that he's worth a top 20ish is prospect and a top 50ish prospect at the very least. That's essentially what Benintendi and Devers are.

I don't know what all the publications say... but Law has Benintendi and Devers in the top 7

 

[gilesfan]

I would trade a pitching over a hitting prospect any day of the week so I agree with whoever said that. If you looked at the chances of an 18 year old pitcher making an impact in the majors, it is awfully slim. Having said that, I like Espinoza a lot.

Pomeranz is a guy that just keeps getting better and hitters have an awful time squaring up on him. The addition of the cutter has really helped to give him 3 quality pitches. He's been lucky this year and pitching in SD, but he's a very solid 27 year old starter that they get for at least 2.5 years. I have no issue with the price to get him.

If I'm the Braves and can get anywhere close to or more than Espinoza, I make the trade as well. If there is anytime to trade him, having an all star appearance and an ERA 1 run below FIP is the time to do it.

I don't see that Teheran is worth what Pom got and a top 50 prospect. That would be a massive overpay and the Braves would be dumb to pass.

 

[Managuarantano's Volunteers]

I would trade a pitching over a hitting prospect any day of the week so I agree with whoever said that. If you looked at the chances of an 18 year old pitcher making an impact in the majors, it is awfully slim. Having said that, I like Espinoza a lot.

Pomeranz is a guy that just keeps getting better and hitters have an awful time squaring up on him. The addition of the cutter has really helped to give him 3 quality pitches. He's been lucky this year and pitching in SD, but he's a very solid 27 year old starter that they get for at least 2.5 years. I have no issue with the price to get him.

If I'm the Braves and can get anywhere close to or more than Espinoza, I make the trade as well. If there is anytime to trade him, having an all star appearance and an ERA 1 run below FIP is the time to do it.

I don't see that Teheran is worth what Pom got and a top 50 prospect. That would be a massive overpay and the Braves would be dumb to pass.

I think you're undervaluing Teheran's years left on his contract (and his prime years being ahead of him) compared to Pomeranz. If a guy is worth [x] for 2 years, the same/similar guy should be worth like [2x] for 4-5 years, which would be the additional top 50 prospect in this case. In addition, Pomeranz's injury history is concerning. Reminds me of the risk we took with ManBan (except Pomeranz is a much better pitcher).

 

[Enscheff]

I would trade a pitching over a hitting prospect any day of the week so I agree with whoever said that. If you looked at the chances of an 18 year old pitcher making an impact in the majors, it is awfully slim. Having said that, I like Espinoza a lot.

Pomeranz is a guy that just keeps getting better and hitters have an awful time squaring up on him. The addition of the cutter has really helped to give him 3 quality pitches. He's been lucky this year and pitching in SD, but he's a very solid 27 year old starter that they get for at least 2.5 years. I have no issue with the price to get him.

If I'm the Braves and can get anywhere close to or more than Espinoza, I make the trade as well. If there is anytime to trade him, having an all star appearance and an ERA 1 run below FIP is the time to do it.

I don't see that Teheran is worth what Pom got and a top 50 prospect. That would be a massive overpay and the Braves would be dumb to pass.

Teheran has out-pitched his FIP by over half a run for his entire career spanning more than 750 innings. He is undoubtedly one of those pitchers who will consistently outperform his peripherals. He is doing it a little more this year than usual, but even if he regresses he should still be the low-3s ERA pitcher and should contribute ~3.5 WAR per year, just like he has over the last 750 innings he has thrown (minus the 3 months he was dealing with a knee injury).

- Julio has never had arm trouble, while Pomeranz has.

- Julio has averaged over 200 innings per season for 3 years (soon to be 4), while Pomeranz has never pitched 150 innings.

- Julio is controlled for 3.5 seasons, while Pomeranz is controlled for 2.5 seasons.

- Pomeranz has finally "figured it out" in his age 27 season, while Julio is 25 and is 2 seasons away from having the chance to pitch in his age 27 season.

Julio has at least 2x the value Pomeranz does. It's like folks don't appreciate how consistently durable and effective Teheran has been because guys like DeGrom come in and light the world on fire for 1-2 seasons. Well guess where DeGrom is now? Dealing with injuries. Same with all the recent "Aces"...all hurt (Harvey), or were hurt (Fernandez), or scuffling (Arrieta), or insanely expensive (Price), or declining (Felix), while Julio is out there continuing to be a solid TOR pitcher who is only 25 years old and being paid peanuts.

 

[sturg33]

Arrieta's scuffling?

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Teheran has out-pitched his FIP by over half a run for his entire career spanning more than 750 innings. He is undoubtedly one of those pitchers who will consistently outperform his peripherals. He is doing it a little more this year than usual, but even if he regresses he should still be the low-3s ERA pitcher and should contribute ~3.5 WAR per year, just like he has over the last 750 innings he has thrown (minus the 3 months he was dealing with a knee injury).

- Julio has never had arm trouble, while Pomeranz has.
- Julio has averaged over 200 innings per season for 3 years (soon to be 4), while Pomeranz has never pitched 150 innings.
- Julio is controlled for 3.5 seasons, while Pomeranz is controlled for 2.5 seasons.
- Pomeranz has finally "figured it out" in his age 27 season, while Julio is 25 and is 2 seasons away from having the chance to pitch in his age 27 season.

Julio has at least 2x the value Pomeranz does. It's like folks don't appreciate how consistently durable and effective Teheran has been because guys like DeGrom come in and light the world on fire for 1-2 seasons. Well guess where DeGrom is now? Dealing with injuries. Same with all the recent "Aces"...all hurt (Harvey), or were hurt (Fernandez), or scuffling (Arrieta), or insanely expensive (Price), or declining (Felix), while Julio is out there continuing to be a solid TOR pitcher who is only 25 years old and being paid peanuts.

I like the post...
Toss Gray in there.. But I wouldn't say Arrieta is scuffling after 3 bad starts. Could be a simple mechanical issue that he worked out over the break. But your point was still made.

 

[nsacpi]

- Julio is controlled for 3.5 seasons, while Pomeranz is controlled for 2.5 seasons.

Plus an option at an attractive price. Options have quite a bit of value given that they give you downside protection.

 

[Orphan Black]

Yeah people underrate Teheran because he doesn't light up the radar gun, and he's not flashy. He's just been consistent, and that's something that seems to get underrated alot.

 

[yeezus]

Teheran's peripherals are really good this year though. Walking unber 2 per 9, striking out over 8. Hell, even the 40% GB% is decent. His only problem has been the HRs. Which is obviously a big problem. But, he's striking guys out. Not giving free passes. Getting a decent amount of ground balls. He's just pitching extremely well. People have been citing JT's .235 BABIP against as a reason for regression, but Pomeranz's is at .240. Add in the fact that JT is a steady, reliable 200-IP pitcher under control at a very cheap rate for 3.5 more seasons (PLUS an option), and he's worth quite a bit more than Pomeranz.

 

[NinersSBChamps]

Espinoza is #15 on the BA midseason list just published. For 2.5 seasons of Drew Pomeranz? Hmm.

Pomeranz can't sign an extension? At least Boston sees a chance to make something happen and they are going for it. I know this is a foreign concept around here, but teams do actually make trades for real life major league players.

 

[gilesfan]

Teheran has out-pitched his FIP by over half a run for his entire career spanning more than 750 innings. He is undoubtedly one of those pitchers who will consistently outperform his peripherals. He is doing it a little more this year than usual, but even if he regresses he should still be the low-3s ERA pitcher and should contribute ~3.5 WAR per year, just like he has over the last 750 innings he has thrown (minus the 3 months he was dealing with a knee injury).

- Julio has never had arm trouble, while Pomeranz has.
- Julio has averaged over 200 innings per season for 3 years (soon to be 4), while Pomeranz has never pitched 150 innings.
- Julio is controlled for 3.5 seasons, while Pomeranz is controlled for 2.5 seasons.
- Pomeranz has finally "figured it out" in his age 27 season, while Julio is 25 and is 2 seasons away from having the chance to pitch in his age 27 season.

Julio has at least 2x the value Pomeranz does. It's like folks don't appreciate how consistently durable and effective Teheran has been because guys like DeGrom come in and light the world on fire for 1-2 seasons. Well guess where DeGrom is now? Dealing with injuries. Same with all the recent "Aces"...all hurt (Harvey), or were hurt (Fernandez), or scuffling (Arrieta), or insanely expensive (Price), or declining (Felix), while Julio is out there continuing to be a solid TOR pitcher who is only 25 years old and being paid peanuts.

It is way too early to say that he will undoubtedly do anything.

Julio has thrown 2 years of 200 IP seasons. I wouldn't say he's a certain 200 IP type guy.

People have different opinions on what a top of the rotation guy is, but I don't consider a 3.4 ERA/3.9 FIP guy a top of the rotation pitcher. (he's roughly 40th in war in past 3+ years' 3+ in ERA) There are also concerns with his future longevity due to pitching mechanics.

 

[msstate7]

It is way too early to say that he will undoubtedly do anything.

Julio has thrown 2 years of 200 IP seasons. I wouldn't say he's a certain 200 IP type guy.

People have different opinions on what a top of the rotation guy is, but I don't consider a 3.4 ERA/3.9 FIP guy a top of the rotation pitcher. (he's roughly 40th in war in past 3+ years' 3+ in ERA) There are also concerns with his future longevity due to pitching mechanics.

Well certainly nothing is certain for pitchers; but this is julio's 4th full season and he's on pace to hit over 200 ip again. This will be his 3rd year in a row and he pitched 185.2 ip in his first full year.

 

[50PoundHead]

Yeah people underrate Teheran because he doesn't light up the radar gun, and he's not flashy. He's just been consistent, and that's something that seems to get underrated alot.

He may be Brad Radke with better stuff. Throws strikes and a lot of those strikes travel a long way. He's a lot more aggressive this year than he was early last year and he's a flyball pitcher, so the HRs aren't that big of a surprise.

 

[Southcack77]

No, they're not.

The teams who have been mentioned as being "interested" in Julio (as well as most of the national writers) want to use 1/2 season as their knock on Julio. No one misunderstands that. EVERY player has questions when you have to go before an arbiter, including Trout, Bonds, Ruth, Williams, whomever. That's completely justifiable and understandable. The thing is, you're PROJECTING Pomeranz to be as good as Teheran. I'm not questioning his "upside" - I'm simply pointing out the fact that you're gambling on projections rather than performance.

I'm not questioning whether the "gamble" of giving up a lesser prospect for a lesser Pitcher - thus far - might work out. I'm simply pointing out (as many others already have) that gambling on Pomeranz instead of Julio is a bigger gamble for someone in "win now" mode. Dombrowski & Company are convinced that it's the right move, and I'm certainly not in possession of any information that they may very well be right. However, they're gambling that Moncada or Benintendi plus Pomeranz for two plus seasons will be better for the next two seasons than Julio plus Espinoza will be for the next four based on 1/2 season of a healthy Pomeranz rather than 1/2 season of struggles for Julio.

Time will tell, not your projections, sorry. It's still 2 weeks until the deadline - and that date will coincide with Pomeranz' career high in IP. We'll see what he has left 3-4 starts from now. If Julio's still posting "quality starts" when Pomeranz runs out of gas, my guess is that a lot of Sox fans will be pitching a fit.

Quite possible the Sox think Pomeranz is the better talent.