Tankathon draft pick watch

For those rooting to tank, Atlanta has a pretty tough schedule left:

6 vs. NYM
4 vs. PHI
6 vs. CHC
3 vs. Cleveland, Detroit, Seattle, Houston

I can see this team going 10-3 in their last 13 when they play Washington 7 times, Pittsburgh 3 times, and Detroit 3 times to hurt their draft lottery odds for a top 5 pick. It would be just like 2025 Atlanta to win too much in September, fall out of a top 10 pick in the lottery, and lose their draft pick in the 30s because they sit Drake too much and Collins wins ROY.
 
Actually, based on the moves made by this organization the last 14 months this is exactly what I expect to happen.

Snit will also likely allow Sale to throw 115 pitches towards the end of September so he's hurt at the beginning of 2026.
 
AA's first order of business should be to handle the manager situation. I hope the Rangers keep Bochy so that Shumaker leaves.
 
Hudson2 said:
AA's first order of business should be to handle the manager situation. I hope the Rangers keep Bochy so that Shumaker leaves.
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I can see the future. Braves make a miracle run to the playoffs. Win the wild card round then shit the bed in the NLDS. Sniker wins manager of the year and decides to stay one more year.
 
Braves currently 1/2 game out of getting the 2nd best odds for the #1 pick. At this point, I don't think anyone is catching up to the White Sox who only have 48 wins. With the Rockies and Nationals ineligible this year, I think the White Sox lock up the best odds in the next couple of weeks.
 
WaitingFor2017 said:
Braves currently 1/2 game out of getting the 2nd best odds for the #1 pick. At this point, I don't think anyone is catching up to the White Sox who only have 48 wins. With the Rockies and Nationals ineligible this year, I think the White Sox lock up the best odds in the next couple of weeks.
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Yeah no doubt. We just need to stick to the plan and lose and the Pirates, Orioles, A's, and Twins to keep winning.
 
Pirates are ineligible for the lottery. The Twins and ChiSox are the only teams ahead of us. We're technically tied with the Orioles but the tiebreaker "favors" them since they own the head to head vs us this year.
 
Solid night for the tank last night. Braves lose and wins for the Pirates and Orioles.

Teams from picks 2-6 are all pretty close together. The White Sox have the top odds locked up at this point. Then the order goes:

T-2. Pittsburgh (62-77)
T-2. Atlanta (62-77)
4. Minnesota (0.5 GB)
5. Baltimore (1 GB)
6. Athletics (1.5 GB)
7. Miami (3 GB)

Those are the teams to be rooting for the rest of the way.
 
Also worth noting, we need to be rooting for our odds to stay in the top 3. That way, the worst case scenario would be picking 9th. If you get the fourth best odds, you could fall to 10th (although a very small chance). And if you fall to 10th in this draft, you actually fall to 13th because of Colorado, Washington and LAA all ineligible to pick in the top 9.

The top 3 picks all have very similar odds for their picks as well. Here's a more in depth look if you want more specific numbers: https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds.
 
CJ9 said:
Also worth noting, we need to be rooting for our odds to stay in the top 3. That way, the worst case scenario would be picking 9th. If you get the fourth best odds, you could fall to 10th (although a very small chance). And if you fall to 10th in this draft, you actually fall to 13th because of Colorado, Washington and LAA all ineligible to pick in the top 9.

The top 3 picks all have very similar odds for their picks as well. Here's a more in depth look if you want more specific numbers: https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/pick_odds.
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True. But the Angels are currently better than us by 3 games and have the head to head, so we would have to play 4 games better than them the rest of the way for the worst possible outcome of picking 13th.
 
Our next 10 games are against playoff teams (@CHC, SEA, CHC, @HOU). After that, 10 of our final 13 games are against the Nationals and Pirates - with a three-game series @ Detroit sandwiched in there, too.

That inevitable hot streak over the last 13 games is going to be extremely frustrating.
 
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