I’m sure he meant indefinitely.
The Coronavirus, not the beer
- Thread starter Runnin
- Start date
I’m sure he meant indefinitely.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
De Blasio has come off as a real dope during this whole crisis. It is probably always gonna be safe to assume “dumb and wrong” over “evil genius” with him.
Respectfully, even sturg, chop2chip, believe Trump fumbled this bigly in the beginning.
The only two people who think he's pitched a perfect game so far are thethe and his shadow krgecw.
The only two people who think he's pitched a perfect game so far are thethe and his shadow krgecw.
Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
Took another look at the thethe theoretical model, where we see the first infection in early October, followed by a low R0 working over a long period of time (to wit, each case creates 1.3 cases over 3 days and then stops being contagious), and with a death rate of .1% and a lag time of 3 weeks. I then lined up that model to meet the current number of deaths we've seen over the last three days. To make that work I moved the "seed" dated at 10/10. Here's what you get:
All that blue part would be deaths NY would have to have missed. That's 1192 deaths total. 157 in Jan/Feb and 1035 during March while everyone was on high alert for COVID. If you think that is reasonable, then the thethe model is at least ostensibly plausible.
Though you must also believe:
1) 13M of the 19M in NY already are infected. (not.... super likely)
2) The death rate in NY will taper off immediately. If the death rate continues to grow at the same or a similar rate, that means we have to push thethe's seed date back even farther and we have missed thousands of more deaths (and the population of NY is 40 million higher than here in reality).
All that blue part would be deaths NY would have to have missed. That's 1192 deaths total. 157 in Jan/Feb and 1035 during March while everyone was on high alert for COVID. If you think that is reasonable, then the thethe model is at least ostensibly plausible.
Though you must also believe:
1) 13M of the 19M in NY already are infected. (not.... super likely)
2) The death rate in NY will taper off immediately. If the death rate continues to grow at the same or a similar rate, that means we have to push thethe's seed date back even farther and we have missed thousands of more deaths (and the population of NY is 40 million higher than here in reality).
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Metaphysicist
Not Actually Brian Hunter
To elaborate: if the death rate doubles twice over the next six days (less than the current rate of increase), that would give us 2320 deaths from 4/1 - 4/4. I dunno if that will happen (and I desperately hope it does not); we are getting into the range where hopefully distancing is gonna have an effect. But that's the "unconstrained" version.
To match the "thethe model" to that means moving the seed date back to 9/28. You get something that looks like this:
Now that blue area is 5,969 deaths that we must have missed here in NY, with almost 5000 of those right now during March when the whole state is frantically testing everyone. This also requires NY to have 65 million infected people. (hint, NY has a population <20 Million)
To match the "thethe model" to that means moving the seed date back to 9/28. You get something that looks like this:
Now that blue area is 5,969 deaths that we must have missed here in NY, with almost 5000 of those right now during March when the whole state is frantically testing everyone. This also requires NY to have 65 million infected people. (hint, NY has a population <20 Million)
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chop2chip
Well-known member
Correct.
Though. I would like to generalize this statement that the federal, state and local governments (align with all of their ineffective bureaucratic extensions like the CDC, FDA, FEMA, etc.) really messed this up bigly. But to your implication, Donny deserves the lion share of blame.
Reading the past 20 pages of this thread, I gotta say there is a lot of confirmation bias going on — on both sides. Thethe is clearly playing fast and loose with data and drawing over the top conclusions (think of it as the “Jace Peterson won the Upton trade singlehanded” of pandemic takes). I wish my more tepid friends on the board focused less on Trump clips (he’s a moron guys), but I understand the anxiety and doom is coming from. This situation is bad and will only get worse.
My take (not that anyone really cares): We still don’t have the testing capability to draw any conclusion (by far the biggest issue with the crisis). But I think we are beginning to see a shift in consensus in the epidemiology community towards the crisis being downgraded. It seems like we have good probability of avoiding triage’s in most communities, but there’s going to be some horrific anecdotal stories from others. It’s going to be really important that we judge policy on the former, and that there is empathy (and a social safety net) for the latter.
The anxiety I have, speaking for myself at least, is that MAGA nationers are diehard loyalists who hang on every word of his. They will take everything he says not with a grain of salt, but the whole damn salt shaker.
When he says it's no worse than the flu, it blasts through the echosphere of his base. There are those of us who are trying to do the right thing like adhering to social distance guidelines and staying home because we don't want to jeopardize loved ones in that age range whom are more susceptible to serious harm from COVID. Then there are people who won't think it's a big deal because it's no worse than the flu, so they'll just go out and about while those of us are trying to do the right thing.
I have only left the house maybe 6-7 times in the last 2 weeks. Those were grocery runs, or having to go into work for a few hours. My father lives with me (asian cultural thing), and he's 71. I've had to work less on purpose and limit leaving the house just because of how dangerous this thing is to older people. I obviously can't risk going out in public, getting infected, not showing symptoms for a few weeks and then get him infected unknowingly.
For Trump, we know he's a moron, but he's a moron who unfortunately wields much influence on a good portion of our populous. I have hope mostly, that Pence and those around him are actually listening to Fauci, Birx, and co. when they make these decisions. But like the tweet about his ratings, it's just unreal that Donald just can't sit down like a grown up and act like one right now.
We haven't had a press conference from the CDC since March 9th. In contrast, South Korea the President there has rarely made TV appearances throughout their shutdown, and their CDC does two press conferences a day.
I think it's reckless for him to do things like speculate last Monday via tweets that he was going to lift the social distance guidelines... because it only encourages people to go out this weekend if he is gonna lift it Monday anyways. The tweet about "thinking about" quarantining NYC-CONN-NJ was absurd as well. Again, I've come to peace that he's the leader of this country no matter whatever he does to embarrass himself, but because he wields so much influence, it's irresponsible of him to do things like that.
If he just would have admitted he was wrong about this thing for the first month and a half, then said he's gonna do whatever the experts and doctors tell him, fine. But the fact he not only tweets about how great his ratings are, but he has to constantly tell himself inf ront of the whole world he's pitching a perfect game, is what really I can't stand. He no doubt will have blood on his hands when this is all said and done with, and it's an insult for him go in front of the cameras everyday trying to convince everyone he had no responsibility with the response, etc. This is supposed to be above partisan politics.
Between the planted questions from OANN reporters and him purposely using CNN reporters as enemies just to rile up his base it's sad. Notice it's really the only time he talks about unity and hope, is when he belittles CNN reporters. Unfortunately, that 10 second soundbyte is what's gonna be highlighted on Hannity or Rushbo. It's obvious the way he speaks to the reporters particularly at CNN and NBC, that he does it on purpose just so he can raise his voice and look angry for his fans
Today was insulting, because he implied about 10 times that "if we did not act or responded with how we have, there would be 2 million deaths". Really, the guy who for the last 2-3 weeks was complaining about how we don't shut down the country over the flu and the guy who said we'd go from 15 to 0 and this would be over by April, is going to tout up how we'd probably have 2 million deaths if it weren't for him.
I think it's been shown pretty clearly how terribly misleading and how much he downplayed this thing until it started getting bad. The fact we've gone from this is no worse than the flu and howcome nobody made a stink about 35k flu deaths, to "be lucky I saved you so only 100-200k die" is a BIG moving of the goalposts, even for his bull**** standards.
I think it's been shown pretty clearly how terribly misleading and how much he downplayed this thing until it started getting bad. The fact we've gone from this is no worse than the flu and howcome nobody made a stink about 35k flu deaths, to "be lucky I saved you so only 100-200k die" is a BIG moving of the goalposts, even for his bull**** standards.
To elaborate: if the death rate doubles twice over the next six days (less than the current rate of increase), that would give us 2320 deaths from 4/1 - 4/4. I dunno if that will happen (and I desperately hope it does not); we are getting into the range where hopefully distancing is gonna have an effect. But that's the "unconstrained" version.
To match the "thethe model" to that means moving the seed date back to 9/28. You get something that looks like this:
Now that blue area is 5,969 deaths that we must have missed here in NY, with almost 5000 of those right now during March when the whole state is frantically testing everyone. This also requires NY to have 65 million infected people. (hint, NY has a population <20 Million)
Death curve is a byproduct of the infection curve so please take us back to the original infection date.
Also based on what you're believed curve to be should result in an astronomical jump in deaths soon right?
Finally, as deaths are a result of infections it matters who is infected. It's more than likely the at risk population is less 'available' to get the infection early on because of their movement patterns. Therefore as theninfectikn grows death will lag even further behind.
But of course, as I mentioned on. Numerous occasions my chart was general tonprove a point.
So please Meta...let us know when you believe the first infection was here to fit what you believe is the right infection rate and death rate.
Downplaying it by restricting travel to second most powerful nation in the world whole the democrats were obsessed with Impeachment.
Sure thing
And now the FDA issues an emergency order to begin use on virus patients.
So again, please help me understand what the **** is wrong with our media?