What's next?

Enscheff said:
I think it's more likely that if Inciarte is given the full time job in CF for a whole year he will show beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is just a platoon OFer, and his value will drop to that of a good 4th OFer. His splits are not pretty, and right now he can hide behind the small sample size excuse. After another season of being terrible vs LHers he won't be able to any longer.
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another thing that could hurt Ender's value is team he plays for.. The Braves have a far worse offense and less likely to get fat pitches to hit with a weaker hitter behind him.. also the park he plays in is far less hitter friendly.. I know WAR and other stats take this into account.. but avg/obp/slg and such don't and GM's still use those.. Although I am not ready to give Inciarte away.. I would sure love to trade him this off season as his value is probably highest we will see on this team..
 
smootness said:
I mean, he just played a whole year and put up a WAR between 3-5. There's not a single 4th OF in baseball capable of that.
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Fangraphs had him at 3.3 WAR last year, and Steamer projects him at 1.3 next year. I think 3.3 will be his career high and he will settle in as a 2-2.5 WAR guy. His horrid platoon splits will prevent him from being an everyday player.
 
Enscheff said:
Fangraphs had him at 3.3 WAR last year, and Steamer projects him at 1.3 next year. I think 3.3 will be his career high and he will settle in as a 2-2.5 WAR guy. His horrid platoon splits will prevent him from being an everyday player.
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He hit .273 against lefties in 128 ABs in 2014 (and actually hit over .300 against lefties that year if you include his AAA stats), hit .227 against them in 2015 in 141 ABs. I think it's a wee bit early and small sample size to be making definitive statements about his ability to hit lefties. Clearly he's not going to add much in the way of power, but if he managed a .273 against lefties one year there is no reason he can't learn to do that consistently. Hell, going through the minors he actually hit better against lefties a few years. Trying to act like 141 ABs in one season makes it a sure thing he'll never hit lefties is just silly.

Now, I'd trade him in a heartbeat for Soler and Contreras (and throw in a lesser prospect on our end) just because the upside is much higher there and we have Mallex in the wings who is a good bet to at least be above league average out there. But to act like he's had horrid platoon splits his entire career and there is no hope for him to hit lefties is just flat out wrong.
 
smootness said:
Candelario's not that great a prospect...he's definitely not on the Contreras/Jimenez level.

I don't want to give up Teheran right now, though. You can pretty much throw success in 2017 out the window, and perhaps contention in 2018, if you give up the only pitcher we have with any real experience. I'm all for riding with a lot of these young guys, but you can't fully depend on them until you know more about what you have.

We're sitting in a good spot right now. We have the pieces necessary to build a quality team by 2018, and I still consider Teheran and Inciarte to be key cogs in that. You can now sit back and let other teams come to you, waiting until they blow you away with an offer.

Going from Teheran to Underwood is a step back in pitching, so you would then be giving up Inciarte for potentially Soler/Candelario in order to get worse in pitching? I just don't like that deal.
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You'd probably want to do a little more research before saying that. He was considered the best hitter in the Arizona Fall League this year by more than a couple evaluators that were there - has been mentioned several times as such on various shows on XM. He'd instantly become our best 3B prospect (not to mention ready to step in there by Opening Day 2017 at the latest), and it really isn't close. Everybody loves what they saw from Riley with the bat, but many question whether he's got the defensive chops to remain at the position long-term already. If he has to move to 1B or LF, there's still a hole over there if Ruiz doesn't make strides offensively.

As others have mentioned, I'd much rather hold onto Julio than gamble on trading him for Soler and that high K-Rate and shaky (being nice) defense. I'm higher on Inciarte than some are but if we could get Candelario and Jimenez for him, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.
 
auyushu said:
He hit .273 against lefties in 128 ABs in 2014 (and actually hit over .300 against lefties that year if you include his AAA stats), hit .227 against them in 2015 in 141 ABs. I think it's a wee bit early and small sample size to be making definitive statements about his ability to hit lefties. Clearly he's not going to add much in the way of power, but if he managed a .273 against lefties one year there is no reason he can't learn to do that consistently. Hell, going through the minors he actually hit better against lefties a few years. Trying to act like 141 ABs in one season makes it a sure thing he'll never hit lefties is just silly.

Now, I'd trade him in a heartbeat for Soler and Contreras (and throw in a lesser prospect on our end) just because the upside is much higher there and we have Mallex in the wings who is a good bet to at least be above league average out there. But to act like he's had horrid platoon splits his entire career and there is no hope for him to hit lefties is just flat out wrong.
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here are his splits...

........vs.....abs......avg........obp
2015 rhp 402 0.335 0.372
........lhp 147 0.281 0.318

2014 rhp 368 0.277 0.321
........lhp 159 0.302 0.352

2013 rhp 342 0.289 0.334
........lhp 131 0.26 0.307

2012 rhp 343 0.292 0.355
........lhp 130 0.346 0.43

2011 rhp 315 0.26 0.327
........lhp 135 0.267 0.346

2010 rhp 218 0.22 0.283
........lhp 75 0.253 0.288
 
bravesfanMatt said:
another thing that could hurt Ender's value is team he plays for.. The Braves have a far worse offense and less likely to get fat pitches to hit with a weaker hitter behind him.. also the park he plays in is far less hitter friendly.. I know WAR and other stats take this into account.. but avg/obp/slg and such don't and GM's still use those.. Although I am not ready to give Inciarte away.. I would sure love to trade him this off season as his value is probably highest we will see on this team..
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True for a lot of guys and probably true for Ender. Guys with Inciarte's profile (very good defense/BA-driven offense with little power) see their value enhanced when they are surrounded by a set of solid offensive players. Defense is important, but it's impossible to hold a team to negative runs. Guys like Inciarte are complementary pieces. Trading him would depend entirely on price. I've been skeptical about Soler (and please don't take my comments about Cuban players to insinuate that he's lazy), but I deal that features him as the centerpiece coming back would make some sense. I would prefer McKinney and another prospect (Candelario, Contreras, Torres, etc.) instead, but the Braves do need to field a big-league team next season and I'd hate to see them threaten the 1962 Mets for worst all-time season in the W/L department.
 
50PoundHead said:
True for a lot of guys and probably true for Ender. Guys with Inciarte's profile (very good defense/BA-driven offense with little power) see their value enhanced when they are surrounded by a set of solid offensive players. Defense is important, but it's impossible to hold a team to negative runs. Guys like Inciarte are complementary pieces. Trading him would depend entirely on price. I've been skeptical about Soler (and please don't take my comments about Cuban players to insinuate that he's lazy), but I deal that features him as the centerpiece coming back would make some sense. I would prefer McKinney and another prospect (Candelario, Contreras, Torres, etc.) instead, but the Braves do need to field a big-league team next season and I'd hate to see them threaten the 1962 Mets for worst all-time season in the W/L department.
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Inciarte has way more value to a contending team than he does with a rebuilding team. I think any contending team out there would be interested in him.
 
Soler only played in 110 games last year and had a .262 avg .723 ops....121 K's to 32 BB's....only 10 homers.....

Could he develop into someone that can hit with a ton of power? Possibly. He is still young. But I am not trading Inciarte for this guy straight up. I don't know but something screams Hector Olivera 2.0 with more power
 
Chico said:
Inciarte has way more value to a contending team than he does with a rebuilding team. I think any contending team out there would be interested in him.
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You succinctly said in a sentence what I tried to say in a paragraph. I think the same goes for Andrelton Simmons.
 
50PoundHead said:
You succinctly said in a sentence what I tried to say in a paragraph. I think the same goes for Andrelton Simmons.
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And since the Braves are rebuilding, you don't HAVE to have a guy coming back who will be on the field in 2016, 2017 or even 2018. What I mean is that I think it's at least worth thought whether an Inciarte for Soler (as an example) would be better than an Inciarte for Happ, Contreras and Jimenez. None of those thee guys likely plays in the ML's in 2016 (although Contreras is probably close) but there is a good chance that the sum of those parts would be better than the semi-known quantity of Soler. Soler is someone who you can plug into the lineup today, but that's both good and bad. It fills a current hole but also runs his control clock.
 
After hearing we had Arodys in trade talks with the Dbacks there may be a good chance we're going to sell high on him this offseason. I wonder what a package of Ender/Arodys could net us and the teams who could be interested.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
here are his splits...

........vs.....abs......avg........obp
2015 rhp 402 0.335 0.372
........lhp 147 0.281 0.318

2014 rhp 368 0.277 0.321
........lhp 159 0.302 0.352

2013 rhp 342 0.289 0.334
........lhp 131 0.26 0.307

2012 rhp 343 0.292 0.355
........lhp 130 0.346 0.43

2011 rhp 315 0.26 0.327
........lhp 135 0.267 0.346

2010 rhp 218 0.22 0.283
........lhp 75 0.253 0.288
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Those 2014 and 2015 numbers are flat out wrong, so I wouldn't take the other numbers as fact either.

Here are his actual splits from 2014/2015 taken from http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=inciaen01&year=2015&t=b

(PAs, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS):

2014
vs RHP 307 .279 .315 .376 .691
vs LHP 140 .273 .326 .320 .646

2015
vs RHP 411 .332 .369 .457 .826
vs LHP 150 .227 .253 .277 .530

Yes, you read that right, he has posted a .646 and .530 OPS vs LHers over about 300 PAs. Claim small sample size all you want, but when he plays full time next year and posts another ~.600 OPS vs LHers in 200 PAs he will be nothing more than a proven 4th/platoon OFer.

If someone values him as a long term starter in CF, and will pay accordingly, then I suggest the Braves trade him now to maximize his value.
 
Enscheff said:
Those 2014 and 2015 numbers are flat out wrong, so I wouldn't take the other numbers as fact either.

Here are his actual splits from 2014/2015 taken from http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=inciaen01&year=2015&t=b

(PAs, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS):

2014
vs RHP 307 .279 .315 .376 .691
vs LHP 140 .273 .326 .320 .646

2015
vs RHP 411 .332 .369 .457 .826
vs LHP 150 .227 .253 .277 .530

Yes, you read that right, he has posted a .646 and .530 OPS vs LHers over about 300 PAs. Claim small sample size all you want, but when he plays full time next year and posts another ~.600 OPS vs LHers in 200 PAs he will be nothing more than a proven 4th/platoon OFer.

If someone values him as a long term starter in CF, and will pay accordingly, then I suggest the Braves trade him now to maximize his value.
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My numbers are totals. Not jus mlb. I think it might be relevant to see all his numbers to get a bigger picture. But it seems his mlb splits are concerning. Now it would be does his numbers in the minors mean anything or like our soler debate do you hold weight with his mlb numbers. Because they say two different things.
 
Enscheff said:
Fangraphs had him at 3.3 WAR last year, and Steamer projects him at 1.3 next year. I think 3.3 will be his career high and he will settle in as a 2-2.5 WAR guy. His horrid platoon splits will prevent him from being an everyday player.
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And BR had him over 5. Again, there's not a 4th OF in baseball capable of that.

I don't really care that much where Steamer has him, to be honest. They may be right, they may be wrong...but I'll go with what he's already done.

If he settles in at 2-2.5 WAR, he is absolutely not a 4th OF. You're overblowing his 2015 splits.
 
Enscheff, you might be surprised by just how many LHH in baseball have an OPS under .700 against lefties. If he got his LH splits back up to a clearly .600+ OPS, that's fine.
 
I realize Candelario had a great AFL, and maybe he's turned a corner, but the reality is that he's 22 and has once put up an OPS of .750 or better past rookie ball. And that came in 46 games at AA last year.

Again, when you couple that with his AFL, maybe he has turned the corner. But I'm not taking him as a major piece in a deal given that I don't yet know what he is.

I'm going to guess Riley will be rated higher by most, and if he does in A ball what he did in rookie ball last year, he will absolutely be rated higher.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
My numbers are totals. Not jus mlb. I think it might be relevant to see all his numbers to get a bigger picture. But it seems his mlb splits are concerning. Now it would be does his numbers in the minors mean anything or like our soler debate do you hold weight with his mlb numbers. Because they say two different things.
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His AAA numbers were compiled playing in Reno. I live in Reno. The altitude is 4000', and the wind at Aces Stadium is constantly howling out to straightaway RF. The OF, especially in CF and RC, is gigantic. It's like a baby Coors Field with a constant wind blowing out. Basically, any stats from guys playing in Reno are essentially worthless.

Inciarte's only other time performing well against LHers was in 2012 at A ball. So if that's what you want to use as a basis for thinking he can hit LHers at the MLB level, I suppose you can go right ahead. Comparing it to Soler dominating at the AA/AAA level (even in a small sample) is just silly though.

I'm not saying Soler is definitely going to become a 5+ WAR middle of the order beast, while Inciarte is destined to be a 4th OFer that needs to be platooned with Rajai Davis. What I'm saying is it's foolish to think of Inciarte as some sure fire CFer of the future, while Soler is nothing but a huge risk. Inciarte's realistic WAR range is 2-3, while Soler's is 1-5+. Both have risk, but Soler has a much wider range of potential outcomes.
 
You don't think a guy whose range is 2-3 WAR is someone we can put in CF long-term? That's basically Mallex's ceiling.
 
smootness said:
You don't think a guy whose range is 2-3 WAR is someone we can put in CF long-term? That's basically Mallex's ceiling.
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I'M SO GLAD SOMEONE SAID THIS. I like Mallex, I hope he's a baller, but I personally don't really see him being really really good. Could I be wrong? I hope so. I think what Inciarte brings is huge for us. His bat will look really good at either the top of the lineup or as a guy to turn over - good nonetheless.
 
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