If we are going to do that, just keep Recker. This whole thing is about upgrading the position.
Coppy keeps saying we're getting 2-3 SP
- Thread starter Russ2dollas
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ixiXSolidXixi
Called Up to the Major Leagues
Yes but Castro bat lefty and is better for a platoon. Plus Recker is 33 years old.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
Recker had a career offensive year last year by a lot, heavily fueled by BABIP. If I had faith he'd figured out how to hit, I would agree with you...but he's 33, so I think it's luck.
goldfly
<B>if my thought dreams could be seen</B>
don't spend money just to spend it cause we have some
after the this offseason, this is what's available for SP and it's where we should put our money on bringing in a top of the line type pitcher:
Starting Pitchers
Henderson Alvarez
Jake Arrietta
Clay Buchholz
Madison Bumgarner *
Matt Cain *
Tyler Chatwood
Wei-Yin Chen *
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Felix Doubront
Danny Duffy
Nate Eovaldi
Marco Estrada
Yovani Gallardo *
Jaime Garcia
Matt Garza *
Gio Gonzalez
Miguel Gonzalez
Jason Hammel
Matt Harrison *
Derek Holland *
Hisashi Iwakuma *
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Jordan Lyles
Lance Lynn
Kris Medlen
Wade Miley *
Mike Minor *
Matt Moore
Charlie Morton
Jon Niese
Ricky Nolasco *
Jarrod Parker
Mike Pelfrey
Martin Perez *
Michael Pineda
Tyson Ross
CC Sabathia
Chris Sale *
Anibal Sanchez *
Hector Santiago
Chris Tillman
Josh Tomlin *
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez
Chris Young *
after the this offseason, this is what's available for SP and it's where we should put our money on bringing in a top of the line type pitcher:
Starting Pitchers
Henderson Alvarez
Jake Arrietta
Clay Buchholz
Madison Bumgarner *
Matt Cain *
Tyler Chatwood
Wei-Yin Chen *
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Felix Doubront
Danny Duffy
Nate Eovaldi
Marco Estrada
Yovani Gallardo *
Jaime Garcia
Matt Garza *
Gio Gonzalez
Miguel Gonzalez
Jason Hammel
Matt Harrison *
Derek Holland *
Hisashi Iwakuma *
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Lackey
Francisco Liriano
Jordan Lyles
Lance Lynn
Kris Medlen
Wade Miley *
Mike Minor *
Matt Moore
Charlie Morton
Jon Niese
Ricky Nolasco *
Jarrod Parker
Mike Pelfrey
Martin Perez *
Michael Pineda
Tyson Ross
CC Sabathia
Chris Sale *
Anibal Sanchez *
Hector Santiago
Chris Tillman
Josh Tomlin *
Jason Vargas
Edinson Volquez
Chris Young *
Mac still produced .9 WAR even whIle splitting time with Sanchez and losing defensive value as a DH. He's certainly better than a .5ish WAR catcher.
But teams could have easily had Mac for basically nothing after the trade deadline. He passed through waivers without even 1 team putting in a claim. Mac certainly has value, but no one is going to take on his entire contract AND give up valuable prospects.
I am not the best on advanced stats, but I never understood the argument that a high BABIP somehow means you were just lucky.
Typically there is a direct relationship to BABIP and BA. Therefore, there is a direct relationship (within small percentages) of BA and BABIP. The better you hit (higher BA) the better your BABIP.
A line drive to the SS counts negatively for both where a line drive up the middle count positively for both. What I notice is that players who play the game (like Terry Pendleton did) where they are willing to sacrifice or unofficially sacrifice by going the other way when a player is on second, tend to have a lower BABIP, then someone who is always trying to get their hit.
The thought that Recker may have just had a good year is still valid.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
BABIP is a measure of balls actually hit that fall for a hit. if you have a high Linedrive % then a higher BABIP is expected and sustainable. if you don't then most likely you are blooping hits or getting grounders that are finding holes. That usually can't be sustained.
I haven't looked at Anthony's career numbers, but usually if a guy has a BABIP around .320 and they have a year that is .390, then you should expect regression. Only thing I would say is look at hard hit balls and line drive % to see if maybe there is a new approach or something clicked.
I haven't looked at Anthony's career numbers, but usually if a guy has a BABIP around .320 and they have a year that is .390, then you should expect regression. Only thing I would say is look at hard hit balls and line drive % to see if maybe there is a new approach or something clicked.
Yeah. I don't disagree. I was comparing him to picking up another teams 2nd or 3rd Catcher.... The part I bolded.
I would also prefer McCann or Castro, but wouldn't give up too much for either. If we are not going that way, but rather looking at another teams 2 or 3 Catcher, then just keep Recker.
I think you are right on the nose here. Mac is probably going to cost more in terms of both prospects and salary taken on than we realize. The Yankees don't need to unload him to save money, so the usual driving force behind moves like the Kemp trade aren't present. They will probably want value for a 1-2 WAR catcher, regardless of $/WAR calculations.
So if the Braves have to give up someone like Weigel (or any pitcher just below the "elite tier") and take on Mac's entire contract, I think I would much prefer they sign Castro, even if it takes an overpay around 3/40 to get it done.
Regardless, the Braves need to get 1 of those 2 guys if they want the dog and pony show to be taken even remotely seriously.
This is correct. BABIP helps determine BA, not the other way around. Your BA = BABIP + BABNIP (I made that acronym up, but it's HR and strikeouts mostly). BABIP is somewhat useful as a basic guide for all players (no one has ever sustained a .400 BABIP, for instance) but it is most useful when comparing a player to himself. Joey Votto has a career BABIP of .359; he has proven himself capable of sustaining a high BABIP. If his jumps to .400, it means he's probably been a little lucky (or he may have just been seeing/hitting the ball particularly well during that stretch, so you should expect it to drop but not terribly so. If he has a BABIP of .299, like he did two years ago, it means he's probably been quite unlucky and you should expect his numbers to improve.
Carlos Pena, on the other hand, had a career BABIP of .275. If he has a BABIP of .299, you should certainly not expect his numbers to improve, and should actually expect a bit of a regression. If he has a BABIP of .400, then he's almost certainly just been ridiculous unlucky and should plummet quickly. Chris Johnson has a career BABIP of .353. His BABIP of .400 in 2013 was not so out of the ordinary that it was unthinkable, but it was still an indicator of some luck, and everyone expected his .321 BA that year to drop again. And sure enough, his BABIP dropped to the more normal level of .345 the next year, and his BA dropped to .263. His BABIP was still high when comparing to the league as a whole that year, but it was not high for him, thus not an indicator of luck for him. For Pena, even that would have still led to an expectation of a further drop, but not for Johnson.
It is certainly possible for a player to suddenly become a better hitter and to raise his normal BABIP level. Again, there have definitely been players who have sustained a relatively high BABIP. If you tend to hit the ball harder than most and on a line more than most, you will also tend to have a higher BABIP. And even if a high BABIP stretch is temporary, that doesn't always mean it's driven by luck. It's possible for a player to suddenly see the ball better and hit it harder than he has typically done in the past. But that kind of stretch is still generally not sustainable for most players, so you should still expect it to drop if it's not in line with career norms.
Matt Kemp, FWIW, has a career BABIP of .340 and it sat at .297 this year. So it's definitely possible he sustains what he did with the Braves and has a year more in line with 2011-2014 next year.
I'm assuming all those *'s denote pitchers with team options? Meaning that if they are still top of the line guys they won't be available.
If so, I don't see many top of the line options once all the *'s are removed. And guys like Arrieta will be well into their decline years (which is why the Cubs have wisely declined to extent him).
Yeah, Arrietta and Darvish are the only top of the rotation starters that will be next offseason if they are not signed to an extension. Both will assuredly cost a pick to sign.
I don't know what we'll do, but I don't see us waiting for guys who may or may not become free agents and I don't see us losing picks. We're going to want to keep building through the draft.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
It is a waste of time to merely assess the offensive performance of a catcher. His defense, particularly success in throwing out baserunners/passed balls, is in many cases just as much a factor.
We all know of Flowers' futility throwing out baserunners this year. Recker, on the other hand, threw out eight of 37 would-be stealers, a 22 percent rate that is just under the league rate of 27 percent. He also made only one error, had only two passed balls, 10 assists.
It is also pointed out that he is 33, 34 in August, but has not caught close to 100 games in a year since 2011. In theory, less wear and tear. I'm not saying give him the job. I'm saying let him compete for it.
We all know of Flowers' futility throwing out baserunners this year. Recker, on the other hand, threw out eight of 37 would-be stealers, a 22 percent rate that is just under the league rate of 27 percent. He also made only one error, had only two passed balls, 10 assists.
It is also pointed out that he is 33, 34 in August, but has not caught close to 100 games in a year since 2011. In theory, less wear and tear. I'm not saying give him the job. I'm saying let him compete for it.
Managuarantano's Volunteers
<B><I>The Artist Formally Known as <P>Ventura's St
I was wrong. I must have read a line wrong on fangraphs or have done weird math or something. He's a 1-1.5 WAR catcher. I am a little worried about decline though.
Ah, gotcha. Yeah, then I agree. Sorry I misunderstood.
I agree with Enscheff that if we don't improve either C or 3B as well as SP, we're gonna have to be super lucky to get a wildcard.
Edison Volquez may be a name to consider. The Royals are planning on cutting him and eating $3M instead of picking up his $10M option. They're cash strapped, so maybe we can get a $3M prospect from them by taking Volquez off their hands. He had two good seasons in 2014- and 2015 and a decent first half, before crapping the bed in the 2nd half. All we'd need is one good half next season and could flip him if we have the youngsters telling us they're ready to take his spot.
It's a risk, but a situation where we could conceivably get a prospect for taking him on and a prospect for flipping him and it only costing us $5M for half a season to do so.
It's a risk, but a situation where we could conceivably get a prospect for taking him on and a prospect for flipping him and it only costing us $5M for half a season to do so.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
How were those tickets sales anyway?
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
Your idea isn't a bad one.
Is this fan base ever going to get out of the "trade for prospects" mindset?
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
A team should really never stop trading for prospects.
And when you're in the position we still in, why not look to sign a SP for a year that we can hope to flip? It's not like all of our pitching prospects are knocking at the door.