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The risk is obvious. I think you might be overestimating it.

I'm not sure 16m for a (to that point) baseline 2 win player who also had 148 and 178 wRC+ seasons going through Age 33 was all that bad an expectation deal. The first two years were painful and uncharacteristic, the last two were big club wins more in line with what you might reasonably expect.

I think having my mail checked and being on a schedule would be my minimum expectation for prison, ha. I wouldn't volunteer for it and pretty sure I would t trade years for money.

You're so soft.

When did AA confirm that?

Dale Murphy can do no wrong as far as I'm concerned and he should be in the Hall. With that being said, outside of that bias I'm overall ok with a small Hall. We've seen a lot of very good players get in and I'm sure their analytics justify most of them, but a lot of these guys were short...

Probably 500+ HRs, 3 titles, WS MVP carried more weight than analytics. Bagwell had the MVP but never was really the biggest star around and his counting numbers were a bit short and had relatively few national moments. Big Papi was as big a name and story as there was and he got over 500 HRs.

The Braves probably will not be the winner for any long range FA deal next year. I agree.

I think this is a guy a number of folks had on wish lists and it is a reasonable price. I guess if they keep up the C signings they could have an A offseason. But alone it doesn't do a whole lot aside from address the fact that they had to have a MLB OF.

Basically what has been said about many of his offseasons and trade deadlines and somehow it has turned out ok. Some markets are better than others. He has money to spend and quite a lot of resources, but they aren't unlimited. Sometimes it doesn't go your way. Better to try again later...

It seems almost equally likely they will be more or less themselves. Probably there is some data in that but I feel like stars coming back from injury are generally still really good until they've hit the stage where everything is breaking down. Though to my mind avoiding Tommy John is more...

Graduating guys, drafting lower and having more prospects, in general, at lower levels.

I understand that you want to rate systems by how good fangraphs thinks it might be rather than by how many players it produces. I probably agree with you that fangraphs thinks it is mediocre and yet it produces more talent than higher rated systems Go figure.

Little early for them to be.

If a system consostently produces an impact player a year as well as MLB filler, then maybe it wasn't rated correctly by the experts. It certainly isn't mediocre results whatever the rating might have been.

I think you could argue that a system that reliably produces an impact player a year is not mediocre. Also has produced a fair number of fringe MLBers on top of the impact guys.

Not sure that it does really. The drafts in other leagues have survived.

Drafts would be an illegal restraint on trade in pretty much every other situation. But sports unions are the rare case where there is an entirely unionized workforce that has a willingness to agree to something like a draft. The collective bargaining is the only thing that makes it legal.

Is Winker unplayable in the OF?

I'd definitely move the backup catcher in the right deal but it's probably retry hard to find below market contracts with some control that can be obtained for a prospect.