David Price expects to be dealt

[PawPawMaxwell]

All of our prospects are too far away, unproven or an insurance need to our own team. For ANY TOR starter, the only 2 assets we can afford to trade are J Upton and Kimbrel if you expect any kind of major return.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

I just remember everyone in here saying we have no shot at getting Justin Upton unless we deal Simmons, etc..

The offseason is unpredictable.

That was because AZ was focused on getting a SS. When they got Gregorious (I think) their focus changed.

 

[zitothebrave]

That was because AZ was focused on getting a SS. When they got Gregorious (I think) their focus changed.

That is correct.

Also there were only 2 teams interested in Justin that weren't on his no-trade list. Us and Texas. Texas backed up from the table. That won't be the case with Price.

 

[PawPawMaxwell]

That is correct.

Also there were only 2 teams interested in Justin that weren't on his no-trade list. Us and Texas. Texas backed up from the table. That won't be the case with Price.

I dont think we have any kind of shot at Price. However, if you watched the game last nite some needs of Detroit's were exposed. Don kelly had only 14 starts in LF all year, Iglesias cant hit enough and Benoit may not be back.
Now if the Tigers dont win it all, we know Illitch is going to sell another million franchises and give DD the money to buy what he needs. Would you do Upton and Kimbrel plus for Scherzer, Castellanos, Rondon and maybe Porcello. The only reason Porcello is included, he may be excess to Tigs needs and would become a pretty good trade chip should Wren need something else. The money comes out pretty equal too.

 

[nsacpi]

For anyone that thinks that Wil Myers for James Shields was not a bad trade let me break it down by looking at the "surplus value" the two principal players involved are likely to generate during the years they are under contractual control.

Myers put up a WAR of 2.4 in 2013 in 88 games. The Rays were careful about starting his service time clock, which means he probably has three more pre-arb seasons. I'll be conservative and assume an average WAR of 3.5 during those three years. So counting the 2.4 WAR from this year a total war of 12.9 during his prearb years. Salaries are very low in those years (he'll get paid about 2M during those four years). So total surplus value in pre-arb years will be around 12.5.

What about the arb years. As a rough approximation players get paid half their value in their arb years. I think it is conservative to assume Myers will average 4 WAR per year during those three years. "Surplus value" per year will be 2. Total 6. Total pre-arb and arb years 18.5.

Now lets move on to James Shield. The return on the first year is already in. He was a 4.5 WAR player this year. That's actually a little better than what you would have expected from his track record. He matched his career high. He got paid 9M, or about what a 2 WAR player would get in the open market. So a surplus of 2.5 WAR this year. Next year he gets paid 12M. So with a similar performance the surplus would be about 2 WAR, which brings the grand total to 4.5.

So during their years of contractual control Wil Myers has an expected "surplus value" of 18.5 WAR and James Shields 4.5 WAR. That ladies and gentlemen is called being taken to the cleaners, among other things.

 

[gilesfan]

You can't be serious?! Those are 3 Top 100 prospects there's not another team that would offer anything better! Sims is widely considered at Top 50 prospect and Wood would have been as well so I'm not sure what team would offer 2 Top 50 prospects and a Top 100 guy! Your definitely under rating the Braves prospects!

You think you could get David Price for 3 prospects, none of which are top 50 prospects?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

 

[chipchildress]

Minor
Teheran
Wood
Medlen

that foursome did very well this year. i don't really see why you'd give up much of anything to add a starter when there are so clearly such other pressing issues out there.

don't trade young pitching unless you're getting wil meyers.

 

[nsacpi]

You think you could get David Price for 3 prospects, none of which are top 50 prospects?

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

When they released their mid-season Top 50 BA had a chat during which someone asked about Alex Wood. The answer was that he would have been in the Top 50 if still eligible. But he wasn't eligible due to having used up his rookie eligibility.

Imo Wood alone is worth more than Price. Anyone with a proper appreciation of the value of those pre-arb seasons would see that.

 

[gilesfan]

Imo Wood alone is worth more than Price. Anyone with a proper appreciation of the value of those pre-arb seasons would see that.

So, the Rays should give us Price + others for Alex Wood?

 

[thethe]

So, the Rays should give us Price + others for Alex Wood?

For a team like the Rays Wood might have just have more value considering they can re-invest that money into another part of the team while still having a middle of the rotaiton starter at worst.

 

[nsacpi]

So, the Rays should give us Price + others for Alex Wood?

That would even things out.

I won't go through all the calculations as I did for the Shields-Myers trade, but my "expected surplus value" for Wood during his six remaining years of contractual control would be about 10-12 WAR. For Price in his two remaining years about 5 WAR.

 

[nsacpi]

For a team like the Rays Wood might have just have more value considering they can re-invest that money into another part of the team while still having a middle of the rotaiton starter at worst.

I'm sure the Rays value their younger cheaper pitchers like Cobb, Moore, Archer higher than they do Price.

 

[gilesfan]

That would even things out.

I won't go through all the calculations as I did for the Shields-Myers trade, but my "expected surplus value" for Wood during his six remaining years of contractual control would be about 10-12 WAR. For Price in his two remaining years about 5 WAR.

That is a bit of an optimistic projection. And "expected surplus value" doesn't win games. Guys like David Price do. There is no team on the planet that would trade an ace pitcher for a borderline top 50 prospect with less than 100 innings in major league ball.

Wood seems like a pretty solid pitcher. What was your "expected surplus value" of Davies, Reyes, Morton, etc?

 

[thethe]

That is a bit of an optimistic projection. And "expected surplus value" doesn't win games. Guys like David Price do. There is no team on the planet that would trade an ace pitcher for a borderline top 50 prospect with less than 100 innings in major league ball.

Wood seems like a pretty solid pitcher. What was your "expected surplus value" of Davies, Reyes, Morton, etc?

Woods profile is much better looking than either Reyes or Morton by the time they reached the majors. Davies was a guy who should have been better and I think he never fully recovered from that groin injury.

If Wood was in the minor leagues all year he might have ended up being a top 20 prospect.

 

[nsacpi]

That is a bit of an optimistic projection. And "expected surplus value" doesn't win games. Guys like David Price do. There is no team on the planet that would trade an ace pitcher for a borderline top 50 prospect with less than 100 innings in major league ball.

Wood seems like a pretty solid pitcher. What was your "expected surplus value" of Davies, Reyes, Morton, etc?

Look some prospects pan out others don't. But some Cy Young winners also experience changes in performance. The risks exist on both sides. Would you trade RA Dickey for Noah Syndegaard right now? Do you think the Angels have any regrets about giving up Segura and others for half a season of Greinke? I'm not saying all trades for star pitchers end up that badly. Sometimes the prospects don't pan out. If you're a Cleveland Indian fan you would have a very different perspective. The prospects they got for Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia did not pan out.

So there is uncertainty, yes. On both sides. We have to look at both expected outcomes and the possibilities out in the tails. Both Price and Wood could suffer injuries. Wood might not continue to improve, etc, etc.

 

[weso1]

I'm just going to say it. I don't think we need to go out and get a pitcher yet. Maybe sign Hudson to a one year deal?

Beachy
Medlen
Minor
Teheran
Huddy
Wood
Hale
Graham

That's pretty solid right now. I'd rather wait and see if we can finally get Beachy healthy. Yeah, maybe you can get Price for Medlen and a prospect then you pull the trigger, but I don't think we need a starter.

I'd really like for us to go out and try to get a number two hitter and sign Heyward and Freeman long term.

1) Heyward
2) New bat high OBP guy
3) Freeman
4) J. Upton
5) Gattis
6) CJ
7) Simmons
8) BJ

 

[nsacpi]

Yeah, maybe you can get Price for Medlen and a prospect then you pull the trigger, but I don't think we need a starter.

I think if a trade for Price was structured that way it would be more acceptable. Medlen has only two years of contractual control, so not so much surplus value as Wood.

My grand plan would be this. Sign McCann. Offer Medlen and Gattis for Price. I think that's a bit of an overpay, but it would give us a shot to get Price. If not we can live without Price. If we get Price, his salary is partially paid for by not signing Hudson and giving up Medlen, who between them would make about $10 mil.

Valuing Gattis is tricky. I think his future development is more uncertain than other players his age. Risks in both direction. Also his value is higher for an American League team. The question is how many American League teams would really want him. There might be one or two who see great value in a player like him. If the Rays are one of those teams, Medlen plus Gattis for Price could well fly.

 

[thethe]

I'm just going to say it. I don't think we need to go out and get a pitcher yet. Maybe sign Hudson to a one year deal?

Beachy
Medlen
Minor
Teheran
Huddy
Wood
Hale
Graham

That's pretty solid right now. I'd rather wait and see if we can finally get Beachy healthy. Yeah, maybe you can get Price for Medlen and a prospect then you pull the trigger, but I don't think we need a starter.

I'd really like for us to go out and try to get a number two hitter and sign Heyward and Freeman long term.

1) Heyward
2) New bat high OBP guy
3) Freeman
4) J. Upton
5) Gattis
6) CJ
7) Simmons
8) BJ

Agreed with you. While it is intriguing to have an opportunity to get Price the Braves have a great collection of young talent and staying the course might be the best option. That new high OBP bat will be LaStella but I believe the Braves should trot out the same lineup that they were towards the end of the season.

 

[thethe]

I think if a trade for Price was structured that way it would be more acceptable. Medlen has only two years of contractual control, so not so much surplus value as Wood.

My grand plan would be this. Sign McCann. Offer Medlen and Gattis for Price. I think that's a bit of an overpay, but it would give us a shot to get Price. If not we can live without Price. If we get Price, his salary is partially paid for by not signing Hudson and giving up Medlen, who between them would make about $10 mil.

Valuing Gattis is tricky. I think his future development is more uncertain than other players his age. Risks in both direction. Also his value is higher for an American League team. The question is how many American League teams would really want him. There might be one or two who see great value in a player like him. If the Rays are one of those teams, Medlen plus Gattis for Price could well fly.

Why do you seem so intent on signing Mac? I don't think the next four years are going to be kind with him. He seems to be getting incrementally worse each year offensively.

 

[nsacpi]

Why do you seem so intent on signing Mac? I don't think the next four years are going to be kind with him. He seems to be getting incrementally worse each year offensively.

I've looked at catchers with high similarity scores to McCann. The risk of decline really kicks in around age 33 or 34 for players of that type. McCann is 29. A four year deal would cover ages 30-33. I don't see that as very risky.

Plus I think McCann will leave some money on the table to stay with the Braves. If not I'm ready to move on.