Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers

Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs answered a few questions today regarding Olivera (Good answers to both questions IMO):

Comment From Josh I

What should I actually trust/believe about Hector Olivera?

10:18

Jeff Sullivan: The terms for which he ultimately signs. Believe nothing before that

Comment From NACHO

I call bs on the 77 million offer from the dodgers on Olivera. What reason would he have to not already have signed it if it was a real offer?

11:03

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, don’t believe anything until he’s actually signed and things are official
 
What about the rumored 77 M from LA? It not count? Would it?

Castillo was also younger and more of a 5 tool player.

Not sure how I missed this, sorry. What do you think the definition of a "franchise player" is if that's not part of it? Players that you're hesitant to give more than 4 year $40 million contracts to don't enter the discussion.

For clarity...

Mike Trout

Giancarlo Stanton

Andrew McCutchen

Robinson Cano

Miguel Cabrera

Jose Bautista

Paul Goldschmidt

Carlos Gomez

Jose Abreu

Anthony Rizzo

Adam Jones

Freddie Freeman

Troy Tulowitzki (when healthy)

Justin Upton

Evan Longoria

Buster Posey

David Ortiz

Clayton Kershaw

Felix Hernandez

Max Scherzer

Chris Sale

Madison Bumgarner

Stephen Strasburg

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Jon Lester

Cole Hamels

Those are examples of franchise players - and their contracts are TWICE the length and (substantially) more than three times the dollars we're talking about with Olivera.
 
Not sure how I missed this, sorry. What do you think the definition of a "franchise player" is if that's not part of it? Players that you're hesitant to give more than 4 year $40 million contracts to don't enter the discussion.

For clarity...

Mike Trout
Giancarlo Stanton
Andrew McCutchen
Robinson Cano
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Bautista
Paul Goldschmidt
Carlos Gomez
Jose Abreu
Anthony Rizzo
Adam Jones
Freddie Freeman
Troy Tulowitzki (when healthy)
Justin Upton
Evan Longoria
Buster Posey
David Ortiz

Clayton Kershaw
Felix Hernandez
Max Scherzer
Chris Sale
Madison Bumgarner
Stephen Strasburg
David Price
Johnny Cueto
Jon Lester
Cole Hamels

Those are examples of franchise players - and their contracts are TWICE the length and (substantially) more than three times the dollars we're talking about with Olivera.

They are also players that have at least one MLB AB and games pitched. Id say that's a tremendous difference. If Olivera had just one single .290/ 20 + hr 85 rbi season in MLB at 2nd, and you don't think he would command comparable money in AAV vs his age? I do.

The only reason he isn't is because he is an unknown. Completely. No history to fall back on whatsoever.

I guess your definition for a franchise player with a well documented history vs MLB competition and mine for a player with zero to go on but a workout differ. Which is fine. 50 mill for a guy with 0 ML swings is a lot of money IMO.
 
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Spoke with Greg Genske, agent for Hector Olivera. Said market is robust, entertaining several multi-year offers. Decision expected soon.
 
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Spoke with Greg Genske, agent for Hector Olivera. Said market is robust, entertaining several multi-year offers. Decision expected soon.

He also adds:

@Ken_Rosenthal · 7m 7 minutes ago
Strong market for Olivera would indicate minimal concern about his elbow. Has taken physicals for several clubs, but signing club likely…

@Ken_Rosenthal · 7m 7 minutes ago
…would want to give him one more before completing deal. Teams do not make investments of this magnitude without a final check.
 
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
Spoke with Greg Genske, agent for Hector Olivera. Said market is robust, entertaining several multi-year offers. Decision expected soon.

This might be the first piece of info coming from Olivera's camp that is actually believable.
 
My sources still claiming the signing bonus makes the offer from the Braves much more competitive than the $$$ might otherwise indicate.
 
They are also players that have at least one MLB AB and games pitched. Id say that's a tremendous difference. If Olivera had just one single .290/ 20 + hr 85 rbi season in MLB at 2nd, and you don't think he would command comparable money in AAV vs his age? I do.

The only reason he isn't is because he is an unknown. Completely. No history to fall back on whatsoever.

I guess your definition for a franchise player with a well documented history vs MLB competition and mine for a player with zero to go on but a workout differ. Which is fine. 50 mill for a guy with 0 ML swings is a lot of money IMO.

No, the reason is because he's not in that class of player. I'd also recommend you read between the lines a little when throwing even the $50 million figure around, because it sure smells like posturing to try to get us or San Diego to up our offers to me personally. Here's what we "know"...

1.) The Braves are interested, and are apparently comfortable with something in the 4/$32 million to possibly 4/$40 million range, but the franchise is in the middle of retooling/rebuilding/insert your favorite term and just isn't going to overpay for Olivera because a.) he isn't the one missing piece that puts them over the top in their current situation, and b.) his best positions are places we may very well have answers for by the time the team is ready to contend. Would he make them a better team now? Sure. But if they move him to 3B next season to make room for Peraza, and LF in 2017 to make room for Ruiz, they don't want to have a ton of money tied up in a 31 year old guy with health concerns that they're trying to convert into an OF for the first time in his career.

2.) The Padres are interested, and he'd upgrade them at either 2B or 3B. They're perfect in that they're in win-now mode. The problem? Their payroll is already at an all-time franchise high and they look like they'll have a tough time beating the Braves' offer.

3.) The Dodgers are the Yankees of old - EVERY agent is going to try every possible way to leak that they're interested because they can afford to pay whatever it takes to get every player they want. The problem? They've already got untradeable BAD contracts that HAVE to be on their 25 man roster in Ethier, Alex Guerrero, etc. and while Olivera might be an upgrade over Juan Uribe, he's not a $70 million upgrade. If the Dodgers decide that Corey Seager's not going to stick at SS, they'll just slide him over to 3B and spend money on Ian Desmond (or someone else) to play SS. If the Dodgers wanted Olivera, he'd already be in camp.

4.) The Marlins DEFINITELY sound like they're being used to drive the price up. Given the fact that Jeffrey Loria simply doesn't spend money and the fact that they went and got Dee Gordon to play 2B, Martin Prado to play 3B, and they certainly don't need him in the OF, does anyone really buy that he's going to plunk down $53 million for a player that they don't have anywhere to play??? And if they were serious with that offer, they wouldn't have just run scared from a rumored Dodgers' offer given the obvious Cuban ties in South Florida.
 
One thing that we have to keep in mind is that, since the embargo, MLB has had to rely on 2ndary reports from Carribean and Latin American scouts, if their home countries had relations with Cuba. So, whatever attributes he possesses, it's based probably on what was passed on by a Dominican scout.

Wiki is far from end all/be all, but there occasionally well-written, well-researched entries.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_baseball_players_who_defected_from_Cuba

Some good, some great, some nobodies, some works in process and some busts.
 
If we are trying to get Olivera to play left field for us and we can get him for under $50MM, I would probably be on board with it. But we darn sure do not need him for the infield, at least not past this year. Peraza is our long term 2nd baseman starting either later this year or next, and either Jace Peterson or Ruiz is our long term 3rd baseman starting soon if not this year for Jace. Left field is another story. We have very little in the way of good future left fielders, at least for the next 2-3 years, and Olivera would be great for us there.
 
If we are trying to get Olivera to play left field for us and we can get him for under $50MM, I would probably be on board with it. But we darn sure do not need him for the infield, at least not past this year. Peraza is our long term 2nd baseman starting either later this year or next, and either Jace Peterson or Ruiz is our long term 3rd baseman starting soon if not this year for Jace. Left field is another story. We have very little in the way of good future left fielders, at least for the next 2-3 years, and Olivera would be great for us there.

The Braves main interest in Olivera is the potential with his bat. But it's true they do believe Olivera can play the OF if called upon to do so. Also, Peterson is not expected to be a starter long term anywhere. But I have liked what I've seen so far this Spring Training and I certainly won't rule it out. Regardless, Peterson is not a sure answer at third nor is Ruiz a given answer at third either since he hasn't even played in AA yet, etc. And even if Ruiz proves to be the answer down the road, that might not be for a few years.
 
The Braves main interest in Olivera is the potential with his bat. But it's true they do believe Olivera can play the OF if called upon to do so. Also, Peterson is not expected to be a starter long term anywhere. But I have liked what I've seen so far this Spring Training and I certainly won't rule it out. Regardless, Peterson is not a sure answer at third nor is Ruiz a given answer at third either since he hasn't even played in AA yet, etc. And even if Ruiz proves to be the answer down the road, that might not be for a few years.

This is more or less the reason the Braves aren't willing to go nuts on Olivera in a nutshell - they don't KNOW that he'll be any better than those guys. They haven't seen him against advanced competition either (at least not much, and his showcases haven't been against MLB caliber players either). Best case scenario is that they ALL work out and that Peraza's at 2B, Ruiz is at 3B, and Olivera is in LF when the new park opens. Given the possibility that that doesn't happen, it's awfully tough to justify offering more money than the apparent offer on the table because they'll need to go get other players to fill one or two of those spots.

This would be different if you were making an offer to a known commodity. Make a big offer to Upton or someone to play LF, then you've eliminated one of the unknowns and your chances for success multiply greatly because you only need 2 of Olivera/Peraza/Ruiz/Peterson/Albies to work out by 2017.

Again, Olivera's simply not the type of player you alter a franchise's plans and direction for UNLESS you're willing to do whatever it takes to get that LF.
 
It depends on what you would call advanced competition because I am sure they have scouts, etc., who have seen Olivera play in Cuba and also the WBC years ago. It was his play in the WBC years back that impressed me, if I had not seen him and been impressed by his skills with the bat and glove in the WBC, then I'd not be near as involved in this discussion.

That said, I wouldn't suggest going nuts for anyone whether we're talking MLB free agents or the international market. But we may or may not disagree on what type of contract offer for Olivera would constitute going nuts.
 
Not sure how I missed this, sorry. What do you think the definition of a "franchise player" is if that's not part of it? Players that you're hesitant to give more than 4 year $40 million contracts to don't enter the discussion.

For clarity...

Mike Trout

Giancarlo Stanton

Andrew McCutchen

Robinson Cano

Miguel Cabrera

Jose Bautista

Paul Goldschmidt

Carlos Gomez

Jose Abreu

Anthony Rizzo

Adam Jones

Freddie Freeman

Troy Tulowitzki (when healthy)

Justin Upton

Evan Longoria

Buster Posey

David Ortiz

Clayton Kershaw

Felix Hernandez

Max Scherzer

Chris Sale

Madison Bumgarner

Stephen Strasburg

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Jon Lester

Cole Hamels

Those are examples of franchise players - and their contracts are TWICE the length and (substantially) more than three times the dollars we're talking about with Olivera.

The same Jose Abreu that signed for 11.3 million a year? Is that franchise money? Whether Hector Olivera is a franchise talent or not is besides the point. He could be the next Babe Ruth yet he's not going to get franchise money. Why? Because he's a Cuban player with 0 MLB experience. Regardless of talent that is always going to drive the price down.
 
It depends on what you would call advanced competition because I am sure they have scouts, etc., who have seen Olivera play in Cuba and also the WBC years ago. It was his play in the WBC years back that impressed me, if I had not seen him and been impressed by his skills with the bat and glove in the WBC, then I'd not be near as involved in this discussion.

That said, I wouldn't suggest going nuts for anyone whether we're talking MLB free agents or the international market. But we may or may not disagree on what type of contract offer for Olivera would constitute going nuts.

Again, there's the point. We're talking about a 29 year old - with legitimate health concerns - that will be 31 by the time the club is ready to compete - NOT a "franchise player".

You understand that Justin Upton's a full 2 years younger, right?
 
The same Jose Abreu that signed for 11.3 million a year? Is that franchise money? Whether Hector Olivera is a franchise talent or not is besides the point. He could be the next Babe Ruth yet he's not going to get franchise money. Why? Because he's a Cuban player with 0 MLB experience. Regardless of talent that is always going to drive the price down.

You're grasping at straws. By this measure, EVERY member of 24 front offices should be fired because they didn't draft Mike Trout in 2009. Abreu's the same kind of Golden Ticket (even if you ignore the fact that the Braves are apparently offering roughly 25% less APV for Olivera).

Maybe everybody ought to be fired because they "missed" on Abreu.

Being a "Cuban player with 0 MLB experience" didn't seem to drive Yoan Moncada's price down.
 
Back
Top