zbhargrove
Well-known member
Moncada didn't get anywhere near what initial projections speculated. Olivera may not ever be a franchise player due to age but he most certainly has the skillset and potential to have 2-4 franchise player type years.
Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers
- Thread starter rico43
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Moncada didn't get anywhere near what initial projections speculated. Olivera may not ever be a franchise player due to age but he most certainly has the skillset and potential to have 2-4 franchise player type years.
Abreu got the largest contract of any non Japanese free agent. Nobody missed on him. Cubans are just unknown and their price reflects that. Again, they aren't being paid what they are projected to produce due to risk.
And your point is?
Somebody's going to miss - and miss BIG on one of these guys. The Braves simply can't afford to be that team - ESPECIALLY given the financial landscape they face.
And you don't think more teams than the Braves and Padres would be bidding for him if this was a widely-held opinion???
The Yankees' 2B options are Stephen Drew, Jose Pirela, and more unknowns - you don't think they'd sign him if he was such a slam-dunk?
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Who said anything about a slam dunk? I said potential and skillset... the Yankees aren't spending like they used to so your argument there isn't really fantastic... they didn't go for Moncada either. No international player is a slam dunk... ever. It has been reported that there was wide interest for Olivera... the Braves, Padres, A's, and the Dodgers are just the only ones fighting for him at this time... no matter who the player is, we ALWAYS only here about the 3-5 favorite teams... come on. Not really sure what you're trying to accomplish with your arguments here... its pretty silly.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
You're right... we should just keep giving franchise record contracts to "proven" guys like Melvin Upton Jr.
(1) Wrong. The Yankees got outbid for Moncada. Their offer was $50 million - $25 million + the $25 million penalty.
"Moncada didn’t get into the specifics of the Yankees’ $25 million offer."
http://nypost.com/2015/03/14/girardi-curious-about-what-the-future-holds-for-yoan-moncada/
If they had $50 million to spend on Moncada, it stands to reason that they can afford to spend $50 million on Olivera - if they think he's worth it.
(2) Right. Again, this is the reason we can surmise that NO ONE has come remotely close to that $70 million range that his representatives said he expected to receive. If someone was offering that kind of money, he'd be in camp already. Remember that mystery team that made James Shields a $120 million offer that his people said he was considering all winter? Where did they go???
zbhargrove
Well-known member
My point is, the Yankees could have easily outbid the Red Sox, but they aren't spending as much now... and I never said Olivera would get $70 million... that was obviously hogwash. Still... plenty of very good international scouts like Olivera's potential and speculate that he could put up a few pretty high end years if he stays healthy. His window is short because of age, but he definitely has the skills to put up franchise numbers for a few years. Will he reach that potential? Who knows? But its no more risky than throwing $10-$15 million a year at a slightly above average free agent around the same age who could very well fail also.
Tapate50
Well-known member
Yet, on talent alone, Olivera was a better player than Castillo and Tomas when they were in Cuba. Olivera is 29 while Castillo is 27 and Tomas 24, so that works against him, but Olivera is the same age as most major league free agents. But if I had my choice of one of those three players, assuming the team doctors give him a thumbs up, I would take Olivera over Castillo or Tomas. From talking with several scouts about it, I’m not alone in that opinion, either.
-Ben badler
Tapate50
Well-known member
When you consider the lack of data to predict his success on, his blood clot in his age 28 season missing the entire year, and his torn ucl rumor coupled with him almost 30.... 50 million is a lot of cheddar. He will immediately slot into most lineups in the top 4 spots while playing 2b. Pretty durn valuable!
And I'm not saying the Braves can be that team. All I've stated is he could be a franchise talent but not get franchise level money. And that is a fact. Nobody is going to pay 20+ million a year for a player that has never played a MLB game even if all indications say that they are that type of player.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I'm not sure any of this is debatable.
He could end up being a really, really good value if he hits like scouts think he can.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Braves "may up their original bid a tad but aren't expected to get close" to the reported $50 million offer they've made to Hector Olivera.
Heyman adds that the Braves are hoping "non-monetary things" such as their Cuban-born manager (Fredi Gonzalez) and Cuban-born bench coach (Carlos Tosca) could give them an edge. The Dodgers and Padres are "seen as potential favorites who could come closer to the $50-million mark, or perhaps go over it," according to Heyman. Heyman adds that "there is no evidence to support" a previous report that the Dodgers have made a $77 million offer to Olivera. The Marlins are also in the mix for Olivera, who "is expected to have a decision fairly soon," according to Heyman.
Heyman adds that the Braves are hoping "non-monetary things" such as their Cuban-born manager (Fredi Gonzalez) and Cuban-born bench coach (Carlos Tosca) could give them an edge. The Dodgers and Padres are "seen as potential favorites who could come closer to the $50-million mark, or perhaps go over it," according to Heyman. Heyman adds that "there is no evidence to support" a previous report that the Dodgers have made a $77 million offer to Olivera. The Marlins are also in the mix for Olivera, who "is expected to have a decision fairly soon," according to Heyman.
Kinda like spending $15 million per on Melvin Jr., you mean? It should be pretty obvious to everyone by now that the new regime won't make that kind of mistake - putting that many eggs in one basket like Wren did with Uggla and Melvin. This (to me) is the reason that they've more or less drawn a line in the sand with Olivera and said "this is as far as we're willing to go - we're not going to get in that kind of situation again".
That is the only point I've made, and if you'll read my posts you'll find that I've consistently said I think he's a fine gamble if we can get him for our money - that $8 million - $10 million AAV range. He'd certainly make the current team better if he's healthy, and would give fans something to get excited about. The problem with getting in a bidding war - even if you're talking about "only" creeping to around $50 million is the ultimate ROI. The addition of Olivera alone WILL NOT make this team a playoff contender during the first half of the deal, meaning he'll be 31 by the time we hope to compete. The organization has to decide whether that money could be better spent elsewhere long-term - perhaps on an extension for Wood and/or Miller, or earmarked for an attempt at signing Upton or Cespedes. Structuring extensions exactly like Teheran's (without the option year) for Wood and Miller wood cost $64,200,000 and lock all three of them up through 2020. If Hart & Company are believers in Peraza and Ruiz, it would make much more sense to spend those resources in that manner given the stance they've taken on pitching.
I'm not sure they shouldn't do both - as I also said earlier, the hope is that Peraza and Ruiz pan out and Olivera ultimately winds up in LF when the new park opens. If that happened, you'd have spent much less money than chasing a LF masher and have resources to spend elsewhere (CF perhaps).
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I don't think any of us hoping to sign Olivera suggested going over 10 million AAV range nor do we expect the Braves would do so. These rumors about 50 million and such don't mention over how many years, etc. So even if they're accurate and not just media speculation based on this or that, it still doesn't tell us the AAV being offered.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
These are the types of gambles I feel we have to take. $50 mil over 5 years could end up being great for us. But if he totally flops, ala Melvin, it screws us bad. But can play the IF and some say he could move to the OF. If he's an OFer that can hit, that solves a big problem for us over the next 4-5 years.
I agree, but don't think that an Olivera flop would necessarily screw the team in any way. Having one or two ****ty contracts that constrict payroll is kind of status quo for the Braves nowadays.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Well if it ends up being ****ty contract, and then Markakis' does, too, then we're in business.
Oh, I was already operating from the perspective of Markakis' being a ****ty one.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports:
"Cuban infielder Hector Olivera remains a possibility to sign with the Marlins.
Miami is among the frontrunners for the 29-year-old, who reportedly also is being courted by the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, A’s and Giants.
The belief is Olivera is sifting through his options. Miami’s is willing to offer a seven-year package in the $50 million range. There has been speculation that the Dodgers had a $77 million offer on the table, but within Miami’s organization, the belief is that figure is not accurate."
"Cuban infielder Hector Olivera remains a possibility to sign with the Marlins.
Miami is among the frontrunners for the 29-year-old, who reportedly also is being courted by the Dodgers, Braves, Padres, A’s and Giants.
The belief is Olivera is sifting through his options. Miami’s is willing to offer a seven-year package in the $50 million range. There has been speculation that the Dodgers had a $77 million offer on the table, but within Miami’s organization, the belief is that figure is not accurate."