Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers

clvclv said:
Kinda like spending $15 million per on Melvin Jr., you mean? It should be pretty obvious to everyone by now that the new regime won't make that kind of mistake - putting that many eggs in one basket like Wren did with Uggla and Melvin. This (to me) is the reason that they've more or less drawn a line in the sand with Olivera and said "this is as far as we're willing to go - we're not going to get in that kind of situation again".

That is the only point I've made, and if you'll read my posts you'll find that I've consistently said I think he's a fine gamble if we can get him for our money - that $8 million - $10 million AAV range. He'd certainly make the current team better if he's healthy, and would give fans something to get excited about. The problem with getting in a bidding war - even if you're talking about "only" creeping to around $50 million is the ultimate ROI. The addition of Olivera alone WILL NOT make this team a playoff contender during the first half of the deal, meaning he'll be 31 by the time we hope to compete. The organization has to decide whether that money could be better spent elsewhere long-term - perhaps on an extension for Wood and/or Miller, or earmarked for an attempt at signing Upton or Cespedes. Structuring extensions exactly like Teheran's (without the option year) for Wood and Miller wood cost $64,200,000 and lock all three of them up through 2020. If Hart & Company are believers in Peraza and Ruiz, it would make much more sense to spend those resources in that manner given the stance they've taken on pitching.

I'm not sure they shouldn't do both - as I also said earlier, the hope is that Peraza and Ruiz pan out and Olivera ultimately winds up in LF when the new park opens. If that happened, you'd have spent much less money than chasing a LF masher and have resources to spend elsewhere (CF perhaps).
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All that is well and good, but we are apparently willing to up our offer per Heyman. So that line in the sand may be moving or imagined or whatever .
 
BTW, that Miami offer of around 50 million over 7 years would only be around 7 million in AAV. I would hope we are willing to top that in AAV and based on our rumored offers it would seem that is the case. But that doesn't mean the Padres, Dodgers or another team won't offer more.
 
Braves1976 said:
BTW, that Miami offer of around 50 million over 7 years would only be around 7 million in AAV. I would hope we are willing to top that in AAV and based on our rumored offers it would seem that is the case. But that doesn't mean the Padres, Dodgers or another team won't offer more.
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That's why I completely discount their offer. If they're only willing to go to $50-ish million spread over 7 years, I would tell him "thank you, and we hope you enjoy your time in Miami". Accepting Miami's offer (if there really even is one) would mark the ONLY contract he'll ever get - he'd be 36 when the deal ended, and no one will give him significant money at that point. If they can get the Braves to push their offer into the 4/$36 million to 4/$40 million range and he turns out to be the type of player everyone hopes he is, he'd stand a good chance of making around $30 million more than that total if he stays healthy and lands two 4 year deals.
 
Tapate50 said:
All that is well and good, but we are apparently willing to up our offer per Heyman. So that line in the sand may be moving or imagined or whatever .
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We are willing to slightly up our offer - use the quote in context. He makes no mention of our willingness to move the line in the sand. What Heyman's likely hearing is that the Braves have told Olivera's camp that they'll go to that 4/$40 million area IF he signs NOW, and IF all his medicals check out with our doctors.

"The Braves, who recently met with top Cuban free agent Hector Olivera, may up their original bid a tad but aren't expected to get close to the $50 million figure bandied about (nor certainly the $77 million mark rumored in one place) and may be counting on their attractiveness as a team with a Cuban-born manager, Fredi Gonzalez, a Cuban-born bench coach, Carlos Tosca, and other nonmonetary things."

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer...-may-up-bid-but-wont-hit-50m----la-sd-threats
 
Can't get the guys they really wanted (Moncada and Tomas), so they go ahead and overpay for a lesser option just so they come away with something. Seems like yet another poor FA signing just waiting to be made by the Braves.

Why pay a decent 30 year old ~$45M and not the 19 year old with superstar potential ~$60M?
 
How do we know who the front office "wanted"?

This sounds like Dalyns expertise right here....
 
Enscheff said:
Can't get the guys they really wanted (Moncada and Tomas), so they go ahead and overpay for a lesser option just so they come away with something. Seems like yet another poor FA signing just waiting to be made by the Braves.

Why pay a decent 30 year old ~$45M and not the 19 year old with superstar potential ~$60M?
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By most accounts Olivera is a better hitter than Tomas. I'd much have Olivera based on what I've read.
We don't know how good the guy will be. As stated, a $50 mil deal over 5 years could prove to be a huge bargain.
 
Enscheff said:
Can't get the guys they really wanted (Moncada and Tomas), so they go ahead and overpay for a lesser option just so they come away with something. Seems like yet another poor FA signing just waiting to be made by the Braves.

Why pay a decent 30 year old ~$45M and not the 19 year old with superstar potential ~$60M?
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It was reported before Tomas and Moncada signed that the Braves were more interested in Olivera. Also... scouts widely view Olivera as a better MLB product than Tomas or even Castillo. Moncada is a 19 year old who will be in the minors at least a year... if not two. Olivera can come in and help right away at many different positions of need and is considered MLB ready... and on base machine... with good pop. How you are even starting to compare the two situations is beyond me.

Oh and if you add in penalties... Moncada would have cost more like ~$80 I believe. Contrary to what most think... I don't believe we are punting this year and with our pitching... Olivera's extra bat... and some luck... we could definitely contend for a WC spot.
 
thethe said:
How do we know who the front office "wanted"?

This sounds like Dalyns expertise right here....
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Glad to help.

They didn't want Moncada, but they hoped their "interest" would remove their biggest competitor for Olivera. To a lesser degree, the same was true with Tomas, though they considered him far more than Moncada.
 
Enscheff said:
Can't get the guys they really wanted (Moncada and Tomas), so they go ahead and overpay for a lesser option just so they come away with something. Seems like yet another poor FA signing just waiting to be made by the Braves.

Why pay a decent 30 year old ~$45M and not the 19 year old with superstar potential ~$60M?
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My recollection of the media reports on Tomas is that the Braves made a bid on him and were a finalist, but they backed out when his agent asked for an opt-out clause. The DBacks ended up giving him the opt-out clause.

I won't re-hash my prior post on the true cost of Moncada, but safe to say it is MUCH higher than $60m.
 
dak said:
My recollection of the media reports on Tomas is that the Braves made a bid on him and were a finalist, but they backed out when his agent asked for an opt-out clause. The DBacks ended up giving him the opt-out clause.

I won't re-hash my prior post on the true cost of Moncada, but safe to say it is MUCH higher than $60m.
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I'm glad we either missed or passed on Tomas given the cost, etc. He has power but his upside seems closer to Cespedes without the great arm on defense. If healthy Olivera should be the better player overall.
 
@RobertMurrayDR
Just saw video of Hector Olivera throwing, fielding grounders and hitting. Reaction: He looks plenty healthy to me.

@RobertMurrayDR
Video was shot last week. @TooMuchMortons
 
zbhargrove said:
(1) It was reported before Tomas and Moncada signed that the Braves were more interested in Olivera. Also... scouts widely view Olivera as a better MLB product than Tomas or even Castillo. Moncada is a 19 year old who will be in the minors at least a year... if not two. (2) Olivera can come in and help right away at many different positions of need and is considered MLB ready... and on base machine... with good pop. How you are even starting to compare the two situations is beyond me.

(3) Oh and if you add in penalties... Moncada would have cost more like ~$80 I believe. Contrary to what most think... I don't believe we are punting this year and with our pitching... Olivera's extra bat... and some luck... we could definitely contend for a WC spot.
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(1) Link please.

(2) Olivera has played a scarce number of innings at 3B in international competition, and has logged precious few innings in the OF in his professional career - let's deal with facts instead of assumptions before making statements like this, especially if you've only seen him on You Tube. The prevailing sentiment is that he SHOULD be able to handle a move to 3B or LF, and while most see little reason to doubt that, I think they'd also like to SEE it instead of guess he won't have issues. FWIW, I seem to remember a 3B the Braves tried to convert into a LF with TERRIBLE results - his name's on the facade at The Ted.

(3) I'm confused. Would the Braves have been required to pay more penalties than other clubs if they'd have been the team that signed Moncada? The Red Sox gave him a $31.5 million contract, and are required to pay a $31.5 million penalty - unless my calculator's wrong, that comes out to $63 million. Where's the extra $17 million in your equation???
 
clvclv said:
(1) Link please.

(2) Olivera has played a scarce number of innings at 3B in international competition, and has logged precious few innings in the OF in his professional career - let's deal with facts instead of assumptions before making statements like this, especially if you've only seen him on You Tube. The prevailing sentiment is that he SHOULD be able to handle a move to 3B or LF, and while most see little reason to doubt that, I think they'd also like to SEE it instead of guess he won't have issues. FWIW, I seem to remember a 3B the Braves tried to convert into a LF with TERRIBLE results - his name's on the facade at The Ted.

(3) I'm confused. Would the Braves have been required to pay more penalties than other clubs if they'd have been the team that signed Moncada? The Red Sox gave him a $31.5 million contract, and are required to pay a $31.5 million penalty - unless my calculator's wrong, that comes out to $63 million. Where's the extra $17 million in your equation???
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I'm not going to scrounge and find a link from 3 months ago... but I know many others on here also saw the publications that were linked on THIS forum that stated the Braves were more interested in Olivera before Moncada was even declared a free agent. Its not my problem if you don't choose to go back and find them or chose not to read them in the first place.

As far as the other positions... scouts don't seem to think Olivera playing 3rd or OF will be a problem... so I tend to trust the professional's opinions rather than your speculation.

As far as the penalties for Moncada... I may have been wrong... that was the number I had remembered. Still... Olivera has proven he can play at a higher level than Moncada and will come in immediately and help. Moncada will need a year or two in the minors. And Tomas is just not that good outside of power.
 
zbhargrove said:
I'm not going to scrounge and find a link from 3 months ago... but I know many others on here also saw the publications that were linked on THIS forum that stated the Braves were more interested in Olivera before Moncada was even declared a free agent. Its not my problem if you don't choose to go back and find them or chose not to read them in the first place.

As far as the other positions... scouts don't seem to think Olivera playing 3rd or OF will be a problem... so I tend to trust the professional's opinions rather than your speculation.

As far as the penalties for Moncada... I may have been wrong... that was the number I had remembered. Still... Olivera has proven he can play at a higher level than Moncada and will come in immediately and help. Moncada will need a year or two in the minors. And Tomas is just not that good outside of power.
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Key word.

Every day that goes by I am glad we didn't land Tomas.
 
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