Some Red State/Blue State Indicia

Some notable changes in the murder rate from 2011 to 2020

Louisiana +4.6
Missouri +5.7
Arkansas +5.1
Illinois +3.5
Maryland +2.3
Georgia +3.2
North Carolina +2.7
Pennsylvania +2.9
Michigan +1.4
Ohio +2.6
Texas +2.2
Virginia +2.4
Florida +0.7
California +0.8
New York +0.2
New Jersey -0.6
Massachusetts -0.5
 
nsacpi said:
Some notable changes in the murder rate from 2011 to 2020

Louisiana +4.6
Missouri +5.7
Arkansas +5.1
Illinois +3.5
Maryland +2.3
Georgia +3.2
North Carolina +2.7
Pennsylvania +2.9
Michigan +1.4
Ohio +2.6
Texas +2.2
Virginia +2.4
Florida +0.7
California +0.8
New York +0.2
New Jersey -0.6
Massachusetts -0.5
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Lets look at Louisiana:

Top 10 most dangerous cities (https://vanlifewanderer.com/2022/02/07/most-dangerous-cities-in-louisiana/)

1. Opelousas (Democrat Mayor)
2. Marksville (Democrat Mayor)
3. Monroe (Independent Mayor)
4. Alexandria (Democrat Mayor)
5. Bogalusa (No affiliation Mayor)
6. Crowley (Democrat Mayor)

Need I go on?
 
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I guess I'll cross off Opelousas on the list of places to possibly move to.

I'm partial to New England anyway. So I'm thinking Maine or New Hampshire. But the city has some appeal too. As do NorCal, Oregon and Washington. Gotta downsize now that we're empty nesters.
 
nsacpi said:
I guess I'll cross off Opelousas on the list of places to possibly move to.

I'm partial to New England anyway. So I'm thinking Maine or New Hampshire. But the city has some appeal too. As do NorCal, Oregon and Washington. Gotta downsize now that we're empty nesters.
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I guess you want to avoid the fact that you think posting 'Red State' murder rates means that Republicans are bad on crime.
 
thethe said:
I guess you want to avoid the fact that you think posting 'Red State' murder rates means that Republicans are bad on crime.
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I don't think Republican policies are making murder rates rise so much in certain red states. But it is interesting to look at the data and wonder what is going on in some of those states. At the same time the declines in New Jersey and Massachusetts are notable for bucking a national trend. Those are two very blue states who have mostly had Republican governors in the past decade.
 
nsacpi said:
I don't think Republican policies are making murder rates rise so much in certain red states. But it is interesting to look at the data and wonder what is going on in some of those states.
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Lets look at the flip side.

10 safest cities in Lousiana: (https://www.brproud.com/news/local-news/zachary-named-in-top-10-safest-cities-in-louisiana/)

1. Harahan (Republican Mayor)
2. Mandeville (Republican Mayor)
3. Youngsville (Republican Mayor)
4. Scott (Democrat Mayor) Congrats!


Seems like we are building a correlation (but in reality a causation) of what makes a city safe or not.
 
Garmel said:
While ignoring the elephant in the room. Who commits the most murders in America?
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Until we have a real discussion about race in this country nothing will ever get better. Majority of black people know who is committing the violent crime in the country. Thats why they are moving over to MAGA.
 
Garmel said:
While ignoring the elephant in the room. Who commits the most murders in America?
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I find it interesting to compare Kentucky and Massachusetts. Two states with similar proportions of African American populations. 7% in Massachusetts and 8% in Kentucky.

2020 murder rate in Kentucky is 7.2 and in Massachusetts 2.3.

Change in murder rate from 2011 to 2020: Kentucky +3.7, Massachusetts -0.5

I'm sure race and social pathologies are important. But perhaps not in as straightforward a way as we think.
 
nsacpi said:
I find it interesting to compare Kentucky and Massachusetts. Two states with similar proportions of African American populations. 7% in Massachusetts and 8% in Kentucky.

2020 murder rate in Kentucky is 7.2 and in Massachusetts 2.3.

Change in murder rate from 2011 to 2020: Kentucky +3.7, Massachusetts -0.5

I'm sure race and social pathologies are important. But perhaps not in as straightforward a way as we think.
Click to expand...

The whole south saw massive increases in murders after policing was neutered following Fergueson.
 
Let's take New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Michigan and Ohio. Large, relatively industrialized states. Similar proportion of population African American. 13-15%.

And yet quite divergent in terms of levels and trends in homicide rates.

2020 homicide rates: NJ 3.7, NY 4.2, Ohio 7.0, Michigan 7.6, Illinois 9.1

Change from 2011 to 2020: NJ -0.6, NY +0.2, Ohio +2.6, Michigan +1.4, Illinois +3.5

This is not a red state/blue state thing. But it indicates that things have gone from bad to worse in Illinois. And very likely bad governance is part of it. Ohio is interesting too. I am not aware of bad governance issues in Ohio so I am inclined to think Ohio has been especially hard hit by socioeconomic change, some it intertwined with the opioid epidemic and so-called deaths of despair.
 
nsacpi said:
Let's take New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Michigan and Ohio. Large, relatively industrialized states. Similar proportion of population African American. 13-15%.

And yet quite divergent in terms of levels and trends in homicide rates.

2020 homicide rates: NJ 3.7, NY 4.2, Ohio 7.0, Michigan 7.6, Illinois 9.1

Change from 2011 to 2020: NJ -0.6, NY +0.2, Ohio +2.6, Michigan +1.4, Illinois +3.5

This is not a red state/blue state thing. But it indicates that things have gone from bad to worse in Illinois. And very likely bad governance is part of it. Ohio is interesting too. I am not aware of bad governance issues in Ohio so I am inclined to think Ohio has been especially hard hit by socioeconomic change, some it intertwined with the opioid epidemic and so-called deaths of despair.
Click to expand...

Would you like to guess who runs the most dangerous cities in Ohio?
 
thethe said:
The whole south saw massive increases in murders after policing was neutered following Fergueson.
Click to expand...

Ferguson happened in 2014. There is a clear effect in Missouri. But not really elsewhere. In the southern states the increases came a few years later.
 
nsacpi said:
Ferguson happened in 2014. There is a clear effect in Missouri. But not really elsewhere. In the southern states the increases came a few years later.
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Kentuckys murder rates by year:

2014 - 3.7
2015 - 4.9
2016 - 5.9
2017 - 5.9

Do you get the picture?
 
I see you switched to Miss:

Here are my numbers:

2013 - 7.3
2014 - 8.7
2015 - 8.5
2016 - 8.0
2017 - 6.4
2018 - 5.7

Jeez, that scum Brown really screwed Miss up for a few years.
 
West Virginia

2014 4.5
2015 3.8
2016 4.6

Then it shoots up.

The timing varies from state to state. But it is the general trend that they have in common.
 
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