Some notable changes in the murder rate from 2011 to 2020
Louisiana +4.6
Missouri +5.7
Arkansas +5.1
Illinois +3.5
Maryland +2.3
Georgia +3.2
North Carolina +2.7
Pennsylvania +2.9
Michigan +1.4
Ohio +2.6
Texas +2.2
Virginia +2.4
Florida +0.7
California +0.8
New York +0.2
New Jersey -0.6
Massachusetts -0.5
I guess I'll cross off Opelousas on the list of places to possibly move to.
I'm partial to New England anyway. So I'm thinking Maine or New Hampshire. But the city has some appeal too. As do NorCal, Oregon and Washington. Gotta downsize now that we're empty nesters.
I guess you want to avoid the fact that you think posting 'Red State' murder rates means that Republicans are bad on crime.
I guess you want to avoid the fact that you think posting 'Red State' murder rates means that Republicans are bad on crime.
I don't think Republican policies are making murder rates rise so much in certain red states. But it is interesting to look at the data and wonder what is going on in some of those states.
While ignoring the elephant in the room. Who commits the most murders in America?
While ignoring the elephant in the room. Who commits the most murders in America?
I find it interesting to compare Kentucky and Massachusetts. Two states with similar proportions of African American populations. 7% in Massachusetts and 8% in Kentucky.
2020 murder rate in Kentucky is 7.2 and in Massachusetts 2.3.
Change in murder rate from 2011 to 2020: Kentucky +3.7, Massachusetts -0.5
I'm sure race and social pathologies are important. But perhaps not in as straightforward a way as we think.
Let's take New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Michigan and Ohio. Large, relatively industrialized states. Similar proportion of population African American. 13-15%.
And yet quite divergent in terms of levels and trends in homicide rates.
2020 homicide rates: NJ 3.7, NY 4.2, Ohio 7.0, Michigan 7.6, Illinois 9.1
Change from 2011 to 2020: NJ -0.6, NY +0.2, Ohio +2.6, Michigan +1.4, Illinois +3.5
This is not a red state/blue state thing. But it indicates that things have gone from bad to worse in Illinois. And very likely bad governance is part of it. Ohio is interesting too. I am not aware of bad governance issues in Ohio so I am inclined to think Ohio has been especially hard hit by socioeconomic change, some it intertwined with the opioid epidemic and so-called deaths of despair.
The whole south saw massive increases in murders after policing was neutered following Fergueson.
Ferguson happened in 2014. There is a clear effect in Missouri. But not really elsewhere. In the southern states the increases came a few years later.
Kentuckys murder rates by year:
2014 - 3.7
2015 - 4.9
2016 - 5.9
2017 - 5.9
Do you get the picture?
i dont
mississippi
2014 8.7
2015 8.7
2016 7.9
2017 6.4
then it goes up
Whats your source?
I ahve this for Missouri:
2014 - 6.7
2015 - 8.3
2016 - 8.8
2017 - 9.8
My source: (https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm)