Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers

clvclv said:
There's absolutely nothing wrong with passing here, and what's "efficient" about signing a player with health (and age) concerns to...

A.) Get in the way of Peterson/Peraza/Albies at 2B when you've already got Callaspo, EY Jr., or KJ under contract for much less money?
B.) Get in the way of Peterson/Ruiz at 3B when you've already got Johnson under contract for less money?
C.) Play the only position the organization is likely considering spending big money on a free-agent to play next winter when you've got 5 options to play there already?

Olivera would potentially be a tradeable asset if signed for 3/$24 million - 4/$32 million IF he comes in and hits .285/.360/.450 with 15+ bombs in 2015. Spending more money than that on him just isn't a good idea at this point - you could very easily wind up with a backup you're paying $10 million a year for if Peterson/Peraza/Albies/Ruiz develop as expected. There's nothing "efficient" about that whatsoever.

Your willingness to sign a long-term deal when you KNOW you're going to wind up eating an unproductive season (or maybe even two) makes a modicum of sense when you're talking about a franchise player - someone that makes a HUGE difference in the way other teams have to approach you. Going 8 years to get J-Up or Cespedes to hit behind Freeman for a long time may be a necessary evil, but it's far from "efficient". You do it because it often pays for itself in other areas as well.

Olivera's far from that type of player.
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I don't think the the Braves are concerned about Olivera blocking anyone since evaluators feel like he can plan 2B, 3B, and corner OF. We have legitimate short-term and long-term needs at those positions, collectively. I love Jace Peterson so far, but he is not the type of guy you plan around.

Olivera is not a franchise player. He's more of a solid, everyday regular who can provide 2-3 WAR per year in 120 - 130 games. The reason why teams are clamoring for him is the value he offers relative to other free agents, especially since he's hitting the market in March when most of the money around the league has been spent. Their is no one clearly better than Olivera available as a FA next year at 2B or 3B, and just a few that are of similar value (Kendrick (32), Freese (33), Uribe (37)).

If the price gets to the point where there's not clear value, I feel pretty confident that the Braves will back off.
 
Tapate50 said:
You don't know that at this point. That is why these Cubanos are so hot right now. They have high ceilings and can contribute right away.
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I do know that at this point - what team has offered him franchise player money???

When someone gives a 2B not named Robinson Cano over $20 million per, call me. Franchise players are players who get contracts 4 and 5 times the high end of the numbers we're talking about Olivera getting.

FYI - Dustin Pedroia got 8/$110 million - TWICE what we're talking about with Olivera. Do you consider Pedroia a "franchise player"???
 
clvclv said:
I do know that at this point - what team has offered him franchise player money???

When someone gives a 2B not named Robinson Cano over $20 million per, call me. Franchise players are players who get contracts 4 and 5 times the high end of the numbers we're talking about Olivera getting.

FYI - Dustin Pedroia got 8/$110 million - TWICE what we're talking about with Olivera. Do you consider Pedroia a "franchise player"???
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To be fair that's because Olivera is a relative unknown in regards to what he will do at the MLB level. I'm not saying he is that type of player but if he was he wouldnt be getting that kind of money. Jose Abreu has franchise player level talent and he only signed for 6/68. If he had MLB experience to back that up his $$/year would be twice that.

There is a risk in signing cubans just like there is in japanese players. But if you hit it right you are going to be paying way less then what a regular MLB player of similar talent would make. Which is why there is an appeal for them. They are the new moneyball players.
 
dak said:
I don't think the the Braves are concerned about Olivera blocking anyone since evaluators feel like he can plan 2B, 3B, and corner OF. We have legitimate short-term and long-term needs at those positions, collectively. I love Jace Peterson so far, but he is not the type of guy you plan around.

Olivera is not a franchise player. He's more of a solid, everyday regular who can provide 2-3 WAR per year in 120 - 130 games. The reason why teams are clamoring for him is the value he offers relative to other free agents, especially since he's hitting the market in March when most of the money around the league has been spent. Their is no one clearly better than Olivera available as a FA next year at 2B or 3B, and just a few that are of similar value (Kendrick (32), Freese (33), Uribe (37)).

If the price gets to the point where there's not clear value, I feel pretty confident that the Braves will back off.
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Peterson, Peraza, Albies, and Ruiz are exactly who Hart & Company are planning around. Committing to too many long-term deals is exactly what cost us the flexibility to potentially keep Heyward AND Upton if there was any chance at all (and I personally don't believe there was).

Here's a list of good, conservative, value deals that are/were COMPLETELY in the way for several teams...

1.) Dustin Pedroia (8/$110 million) - he's been hurt for 2 years, and now he's in Betts' way. Think they'd like to use that money on an Ace?
2.) Matt Kemp (8/$160 million) - hurt, in the way, and they swallowed a ton of money to move him.
3.) Shane Victorino (3/$39 million) - missed all of last season, now in the way and they can't get any value in return for a great contract if he's healthy.
4.) Allen Craig (5/$31 million) - See above.

And the perfect comp for Olivera -

5.) Brandon Phillips (6/$72.5 million) - 3 years and $39 million of that deal left, and they can't give him away.
 
thewupk said:
To be fair that's because Olivera is a relative unknown in regards to what he will do at the MLB level. I'm not saying he is that type of player but if he was he wouldnt be getting that kind of money. Jose Abreu has franchise player level talent and he only signed for 6/68. If he had MLB experience to back that up his $$/year would be twice that.

There is a risk in signing cubans just like there is in japanese players. But if you hit it right you are going to be paying way less then what a regular MLB player of similar talent would make. Which is why there is an appeal for them. They are the new moneyball players.
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The ONLY thing Abreu and Olivera have in common is that they're both from the same island. Please don't compare a player who projects at best to hit 15-20 HRs to Abreu.
 
thewupk said:
You completely missed the point
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No, I didn't. But comparing anyone else's contract to Abreu's is completely useless. They got the Golden Ticket.

Using that kind of contract just because the numbers are in the same ballpark is a waste of time. You have to look at the players involved or it's pointless. If you want to compare Olivera to the types of player he projects to be (even best case scenario) then look at THOSE deals, not Abreu's. How does he stack up against Pedroia and what's left on his contract? Brandon Phillips and what's left on his? Chase Utley and what's left on his?

If you want to compare contracts just because the numbers are close to each other, Borass and other agents will own teams soon - they'll make you understand that EVERY player is undervalued.
 
clvclv said:
Peterson, Peraza, Albies, and Ruiz are exactly who Hart & Company are planning around. Committing to too many long-term deals is exactly what cost us the flexibility to potentially keep Heyward AND Upton if there was any chance at all (and I personally don't believe there was).

Here's a list of good, conservative, value deals that are/were COMPLETELY in the way for several teams...

1.) Dustin Pedroia (8/$110 million) - he's been hurt for 2 years, and now he's in Betts' way. Think they'd like to use that money on an Ace?
2.) Matt Kemp (8/$160 million) - hurt, in the way, and they swallowed a ton of money to move him.
3.) Shane Victorino (3/$39 million) - missed all of last season, now in the way and they can't get any value in return for a great contract if he's healthy.
4.) Allen Craig (5/$31 million) - See above.

And the perfect comp for Olivera -

5.) Brandon Phillips (6/$72.5 million) - 3 years and $39 million of that deal left, and they can't give him away.
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Completely agree with your premise . . . makes no sense to enter into a long-term, high-dollar free agent deal that will block your top-tier prospects unless that free agent is a franchise cornerstone. Just not seeing how that applies in this case.

Jace Peterson profiles as a 700 OPS super-utility type. ETAs for Peraza, Ruiz, and Albies are 2016, 2017, and 2018. There is no one that profiles as an everyday regular in LF in our system that will be ready by 2017.

I don't see how Olivera on a 3-year, $8m - $10m AAV deal for his age 30-32 seasons is remotely comparable to any of the 5 examples noted.
 
clvclv said:
No, I didn't. But comparing anyone else's contract to Abreu's is completely useless. They got the Golden Ticket.

Using that kind of contract just because the numbers are in the same ballpark is a waste of time. You have to look at the players involved or it's pointless. If you want to compare Olivera to the types of player he projects to be (even best case scenario) then look at THOSE deals, not Abreu's. How does he stack up against Pedroia and what's left on his contract? Brandon Phillips and what's left on his? Chase Utley and what's left on his?
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If Olivera puts up the numbers that you suggested that he'd need to in order to be a viable trade chip (.280 & 15+/.800 OPS) he'd easily be a top-5 2B, I think. He'd be younger and cheaper than Phillips, Utley, or Pedroia, and quite possibly better than all 3. You've made a good case for why it makes sense to bail if the AAV gets too high, but if he could put up that line he'd hardly be a millstone. Of course, that depends on the length of the contract.

I'm excited about Rio Ruiz, but he's at least a couple of years away and there's a real chance that his ceiling is what Olivera is now.

I'm on the fence about Olivera, but I don't want to dismiss it out of hand.
 
clvclv said:
No, I didn't. But comparing anyone else's contract to Abreu's is completely useless. They got the Golden Ticket.

Using that kind of contract just because the numbers are in the same ballpark is a waste of time. You have to look at the players involved or it's pointless. If you want to compare Olivera to the types of player he projects to be (even best case scenario) then look at THOSE deals, not Abreu's. How does he stack up against Pedroia and what's left on his contract? Brandon Phillips and what's left on his? Chase Utley and what's left on his?

If you want to compare contracts just because the numbers are close to each other, Borass and other agents will own teams soon - they'll make you understand that EVERY player is undervalued.
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Why should we compare Hector to anyone with a track record in MLB? Especially to those players who have a few remaining years on their deals. When they signed those deals the market was different. If Hector projects to be a Brandon Phillips when Phillips signed his deal he is going to be making more than Phillips does right now. Again, Cubans are an unknown because there is no track record there. If Hector is a 2-3 WAR player he would not sign for 10-13 million per year if he had a proven track record. He would get 15+ easy. His unknown brings his price down regardless of his talent level. Just like it did with Abreu. Just like what happened with Puig. Cubans are the current inefficeny in the market. Provided your scouting makes sure you don't make any huge mistakes.
 
My issue with the whole Olivera situation is that IF the Braves are in it for $50M or more and Olivera is 30, has an injury history and current questions, and isn't a superstar with no growth left to become one, then why not go all in for Moncada who was: young, controllable, at a need position, and at least has the potential to be a cornerstone player. If you are going to pay 50 for Olivera, then 70 should have been a no brainer for Moncada.

Sure, I understand the whole penalty regarding international bonus signings for signing Moncada, but who cares? Shift efforts to the domestic market for the next couple of years and take low end chances in foreign markets. It's not like the Braves are traditional large contract spenders on the international market anyway.
 
Shame there's not a salary cap to block spending on a relatively unknown gamble. Big budget teams can survive a bad investment if a player doesn't pan out but driving the price up keeps the middle to low budget teams from being able to take the risk.

Of course, life is like that any way. When was the last time some millionaire limited himself at the poker table just because the guy using the 'egg money' was also playing? The rich get richer and the poor find it difficult to survive.
 
I composed a post yesterday that somehow didn't show up, but my thoughts are similar to Horsehide Harry's.

Olivera could be a good short-term investment and may put some seats in the stands, but if he's a five-year commitment, he probably has to move to the OF because Ruiz, Peterson, and others are coming up through the system. Of course, a surplus at any position could lead to a trade to help remedy some of our shortcomings.

As for Jace Peterson, I get the excitement and love the athleticism, but I don't see him as a central piece to the re-build. He may develop into an above average 2B or a very good UTL IF, but I don't see him reaching Pedroia levels (but I could be wrong). Freeman is the core player (the only one we have right now). We've got some good support level guys, but for the team to succeed, Ruiz will have to develop and Albies, Peraza, and Davidson are going to have to come along fairly quickly. I agree with the sturg33's synopsis that Simmons, Peraza, or Albies could be a trade candidate if the right opportunity for a masher comes along.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
My issue with the whole Olivera situation is that IF the Braves are in it for $50M or more and Olivera is 30, has an injury history and current questions, and isn't a superstar with no growth left to become one, then why not go all in for Moncada who was: young, controllable, at a need position, and at least has the potential to be a cornerstone player. If you are going to pay 50 for Olivera, then 70 should have been a no brainer for Moncada.

Sure, I understand the whole penalty regarding international bonus signings for signing Moncada, but who cares? Shift efforts to the domestic market for the next couple of years and take low end chances in foreign markets. It's not like the Braves are traditional large contract spenders on the international market anyway.
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Agreed, but I think the simplest answer is that they're not going to $50M on Olivera.
 
dak said:
Completely agree with your premise . . . makes no sense to enter into a long-term, high-dollar free agent deal that will block your top-tier prospects unless that free agent is a franchise cornerstone. Just not seeing how that applies in this case.

Jace Peterson profiles as a 700 OPS super-utility type. ETAs for Peraza, Ruiz, and Albies are 2016, 2017, and 2018. There is no one that profiles as an everyday regular in LF in our system that will be ready by 2017.

I don't see how Olivera on a 3-year, $8m - $10m AAV deal for his age 30-32 seasons is remotely comparable to any of the 5 examples noted.
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And that (as I mentioned earlier) is the problem I have with the deal assuming it exceeds 4/$32 million. I have no problem agreeing with every single person who says he's an upgrade at 2B in 2015, and an upgrade at 3B in 2016.

The issue I have is the trickle-down effect of spending that money when the best case scenario for ROI is it takes you from a 70 win team to a 73 win team. We've all seen (painfully and first-hand) that Liberty is going to watch every dollar spent. We're still trying to dig out from under the dead money that handcuffed us in Uggla and B. J.'s deals. So here's the exercise - look at the TOTAL expenditure assuming worst case scenario, because expecting different puts you behind the 8 ball. For argument's sake, we'll use that $10 million AAV figure, which makes Olivera

1.) A $13 million player in 2015. We're already committed to Callaspo for $3 million. If teams that might take Callaspo (crickets) are interested at all, why aren't THEY bidding on Olivera???
2.) A $17.5 million player in 2016. We're already committed to Johnson for $7.5 million. If teams that might take Johnson (Milwaukee and San Francisco) are interested at all, why aren't THEY bidding on Olivera???
3.) A $19 million player in 2017. Chris Johnson's still on your bench unless you indeed do move Olivera to LF and Ruiz doesn't pan out.
4.) An $11 million player in 2018. His salary plus Johnson's buyout.

Suddenly that 4 year, $40 million contract cost you $60.5 million, and you still don't know with any certainty he's going to outperform any of Johnson, Peterson, Peraza, Albies, or Ruiz. I think I'd personally rather take that cash to invest in a J-Up or Cespedes to play LF and hit behind Freeman and take my chances that we get a 2B and 3B out of Peterson, Peraza, Albies, or Ruiz.
 
Julio3000 said:
If Olivera puts up the numbers that you suggested that he'd need to in order to be a viable trade chip (.280 & 15+/.800 OPS) he'd easily be a top-5 2B, I think. He'd be younger and cheaper than Phillips, Utley, or Pedroia, and quite possibly better than all 3. You've made a good case for why it makes sense to bail if the AAV gets too high, but if he could put up that line he'd hardly be a millstone. Of course, that depends on the length of the contract.

I'm excited about Rio Ruiz, but he's at least a couple of years away and there's a real chance that his ceiling is what Olivera is now.

I'm on the fence about Olivera, but I don't want to dismiss it out of hand.
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I won't disagree with that take either. However, we've already got a 3B with that ceiling on the roster NOW. Will he reach it? Not likely.

Again, my question is does the production difference difference from our 2015 2B options to Olivera's and from Johnson's 2016 production to Olivera's make us a playoff team?

Then why spend the money???
 
clvclv said:
I won't disagree with that take either. However, we've already got a 3B with that ceiling on the roster NOW. Will he reach it? Not likely.

Again, my question is does the production difference difference from our 2015 2B options to Olivera's and from Johnson's 2016 production to Olivera's make us a playoff team?

Then why spend the money???
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I get it, and I don't disagree, but that's still a bit of a straw man. There is no single move that makes us a playoff team.

It's an iterative process, of which it could be argued he's a part.
 
This guy is the Marlins beat reporter for the Miami Herald. I find this hard to believe, personally. If the Dodgers have offered $77m, I don't know what in the hell he's waiting for.

@clarkspencer
#Marlins made $53m offer for Hector Olivera, but backed away after hearing #dodgers offered $77m, source says. #padres 52m; #braves 44m

@clarkspencer
#Marlins offer was for 7 yrs, but made to previous representative, as were other figs. No telling how matters have changed with new rep.
 
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