True, Brinson could possibly have a BJ Upton type of value in CF. Just not the type of player I'm all that big on, particularly if we are giving up Julio.
Red Sox To Acquire Drew Pomeranz From Padres
- Thread starter CrimsonCowboy
- Start date
True, Brinson could possibly have a BJ Upton type of value in CF. Just not the type of player I'm all that big on, particularly if we are giving up Julio.
Julio3000
<B>A Chip Off the Old Rock</B>
I think Touki has immense upside, but you're talking about a guy who is 1.5 years younger and is less experienced but still has more polish and better peripherals at the same level. Touki definitely has a better frame for a durable starter, but Espinoza is smooth and throws hard with clean mechanics despite his size. Respectfully, I think there's some brightsiding of "our" guy going on here.
I get the deal from the Sox perspective, but trying to put Espinoza into a pile with our guys is a stretch.
MadduxFanII
Swallowed by Mark Bowman
And in addition to being almost a full 2 years younger, Espinoza is seeing the level for the first time and not repeating the level like Touki is .
No, they're not.
The teams who have been mentioned as being "interested" in Julio (as well as most of the national writers) want to use 1/2 season as their knock on Julio. No one misunderstands that. EVERY player has questions when you have to go before an arbiter, including Trout, Bonds, Ruth, Williams, whomever. That's completely justifiable and understandable. The thing is, you're PROJECTING Pomeranz to be as good as Teheran. I'm not questioning his "upside" - I'm simply pointing out the fact that you're gambling on projections rather than performance.
I'm not questioning whether the "gamble" of giving up a lesser prospect for a lesser Pitcher - thus far - might work out. I'm simply pointing out (as many others already have) that gambling on Pomeranz instead of Julio is a bigger gamble for someone in "win now" mode. Dombrowski & Company are convinced that it's the right move, and I'm certainly not in possession of any information that they may very well be right. However, they're gambling that Moncada or Benintendi plus Pomeranz for two plus seasons will be better for the next two seasons than Julio plus Espinoza will be for the next four based on 1/2 season of a healthy Pomeranz rather than 1/2 season of struggles for Julio.
Time will tell, not your projections, sorry. It's still 2 weeks until the deadline - and that date will coincide with Pomeranz' career high in IP. We'll see what he has left 3-4 starts from now. If Julio's still posting "quality starts" when Pomeranz runs out of gas, my guess is that a lot of Sox fans will be pitching a fit.
Rightfully so if you're Coppy IMO. If the A's could've gotten Espinoza for Hill it honestly could be time to question Beane.
Umm, what the heck are you talking about with projections, and who said anything about projections? Pomeranz has pitched about as well or better than Julio this season, it has nothing to do with projection, that's simply the stats they've produced so far this year. Now whether he continues that is a matter of projection, and who knows on that, I certainly don't. Time will tell. But people have made comments about spending 10 bucks to get a 5 dollar pitcher, that is definitely acting like he's chopper liver in my book.
Most of the Red Sox chatter I've read has been against this trade, they certainly wouldn't be for giving up Moncada or Benintendi and aren't going to get mad about not trading them.
And the Red Sox are in win now and win in the future mode, all of their talent outside of Papi is under control till 2020 at least.
While I definitely wouldn't give up Julio unless we are getting something like Bregman or Benintendi back at least, I also wouldn't give them up for Julio if I were the Astros or the Red Sox. I know I'd be pretty happy if we had Pomeranz and Benintendi instead of Julio and Viz. I'd do that trade off happily.
And most prospect sites and pundits seem to value both more than Julio valuewise, so it's not like it's some minor opinion.
Which is fine, we can just keep him in that case.
What your saying is irrelevant. The fact Boston chose to go with a different option doesn't change the value of JT in this market.
You're talking about a sample size of maybe a month or two and completely disregarding age difference and experience level.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
This is a fine deal for Boston, IMO. Espinoza is so far away, and Pomeranz has put up a 3 WAR so far this year. What are the chances Espinoza does that ever, much less any time soon? It's a gamble on their part, sure, but it is for SD as well. Solid trade for both, but I like Boston's side better.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
AND STOP UNDERVALUING JULIO TEHERAN. People either overvalue or undervalue the guy. He is what he is. He's not worth two top 10 prospects, but he's also worth more than just Espinoza. (who I like a lot)
I think Pomeranz is a good pitching and he's having a very good year, BUT he has not been a workhorse at this point and he's not under control but what, two years? Julio has really good value on innings/contract alone.
I think Pomeranz is a good pitching and he's having a very good year, BUT he has not been a workhorse at this point and he's not under control but what, two years? Julio has really good value on innings/contract alone.
That feels obvious. If he was worth two top 10 guys Boston would of made that deal for him. If he was worth just Espinoza they would of made that deal for him.
Someone made the comment earlier. But a top 20 and a top 50 guy for Julio with another B prospect sounds about right.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
He looked like a dope with the build-up, but he's getting good return on the tear-down. He got a haul for Kimbrel and gets quality over quantity here. Curious to see who else he moves and what the return is for them. I think they'd be absolutely nuts to trade Myers, but Melvin (and/or Kemp), Solarte, and maybe even Norris could net something.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
The Rodney trade for Paddack was an great grab. You can tell Preller is looking for higher upside over quantity. He is rebuilding better than he built.
Maybe, DD felt sorry for blowing up the Pads Draft and did Preller a solid..
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I think the position player haul he got for Kimbrel allows him to do a quality-over-quantity on the rebuild in other areas.
I think in terms of ceiling, several of our guys do compare. Obviously Espinoza seems to have a pretty good chance to make it for a guy his age, much better than normal, which combined with his ceiling is what puts him so far up the prospect rankings. He has similar polish but a higher ceiling than a guy like Soroka, and better polish but a similar ceiling to guys like Allard and Touki.
WaitingFor2017
Well-known member
Julio's WAR is just above Pomeranz right now (3.24 to 3). Julio also is younger, has more controllable years left, and has shown a history of being a workhorse and has history of putting up good numbers (sans one injury-plagued year) unlike Pomeranz. With Dombrowski starting this seller's market, I expect a top 15 MLB prospect for Julio even if it's only one as well as a side piece. Even if you throw in Viz, it could be a top 15 overall prospect plus another one of the team's top 10 prospects. If you don't get that deal, keep Julio and see what changes in the offseason.
GovClintonTyree
<B>Vencer a Los Doyers</B>
So do I. Six years ago, Pomeranz was extraordinarily highly thought of as a prospect. Then, prior to any injuries, Cleveland brought him up and he got lit up like a Christmas tree. Then he started getting nicked up and it's taken until now for him to start to reach his potential.
My point? Can't miss prospects often do. We act as if our consensus definitively values the currency. It doesn't. They could have traded their #1 prospect for Pomeranz and you've still got far more certainty getting Pomeranz than getting (perhaps) Moncada.
I'm not saying you should be as cavalier as Dave Stewart with your prospects, but it looks like he sold high on Inciarte and sold us a nice smallpox blanket in Blair when we were thinking we hosed him for three valuable pieces (leaving his overvaluing of Miller out of the equation).
The reason the Braves rebuild might ultimately succeed is quality as residue of quantity. Our scouts have identified 50 strong prospects who have a chance to be quality major league ballplayers. Ten will. Ten will be contributors and the rest will be nine to fivers.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It is certainly going to turn on that. I have a less optimistic take because the yield on non-elite prospects has never been good. Every now and then someone like Prado (who was not an elite prospect) comes along. I hope we find such a player among the multitude of non-elite prospects we have traded for. Right now it looks like Mallex Smith might have the best chance. Maybe Folty reaches something close to his ceiling. We'll see.
Just to be clear when I talk about an elite prospect I'm talking about a Top 30 guy.
sturg33
I
My comment was based on heyward's absurd idea that Julio is now worth at least Devers and Benintendi